A new round of large-scale heavy rainfall is coming, how far are we from the flood?

"In the next three days, there will be heavy rainfall in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Huanghuai and other places." Seeing this news, there must be many friends who want to vomit: "The rainstorm in the south is coming again. Is it over? " Unconsciously, the south has experienced more than 20 rounds of heavy rainfall! It seems that the rainstorm seems to have a tendency of not flooding. So, how much rain did it rain before? How strong is this round of heavy rainfall? How far are we from the flood?

The terrible "prophase"-21rainstorm history is the most in the same period.

From the beginning of the flood season, the message of "a new round of rainstorm in the south" seems to have started the replay mode, which constantly stimulates our audio-visual again and again.

Indeed, according to statistics, there have been 2 1 sub-regional rainstorm processes in southern China before, which "dominated" the same period in history. There are many times, and the accumulated rainfall is also large. Since the flood season, the national average precipitation has been 23% higher than normal, the highest since 1954. In addition, the intensity of rainfall is also very fierce. The cumulative precipitation in the whole country 155 counties (cities) exceeded the historical extreme value, and the daily precipitation in Guangdong Xinyi 15 counties (cities) exceeded the historical extreme value.

So, how does it compare with 1998?

We know that South China entered the flood season on March 2 1 this year, which was 16 days earlier than normal. Compared with the same period of 1998, the national average precipitation has been 5% higher than that of 1998 since the flood season this year, and the rainstorm process has been 6 times more. However, this year, the position of rain belt fluctuates greatly from north to south, and the longest duration of rainstorm process is not as good as that of the same period 1998. 1June 998 12 to June 27, a rainstorm weather process lasted 16 days, and the longest rainstorm this year lasted for 7 days. So from the current point of view, the flood disaster in summer in China this year is weaker than 1998.

The precipitation was so strong and the floods were fierce that some areas suffered severe floods. At present, 222 rivers in China have exceeded the warning flood, which is also the most in the same period in the past five years. There are 26 rivers that exceed the guaranteed water level (that is, the guaranteed water level refers to the water level that the dike project can ensure its own safe operation), 6 rivers have historical floods, and the main rivers have floods for 23 times, and the total flood volume is 34% higher than normal.

Fierce "Now" —— The Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first orange rainstorm warning this year

Affected by the vortex system, a new round of heavy rainfall began in the eastern part of southwest China, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Huanghuai and other places on the 30th. Sichuan, Chongqing and southwestern Shaanxi became the "first stop" of this round of heavy rainfall. According to the monitoring, as of 18 pm on the 30th, the rainfall in eastern Sichuan, north-central Chongqing, southeastern Shaanxi and southwestern Hubei reached 50-80mm, and some areas in Guang 'an, Dazu, Zhongxian and Wanzhou in Sichuan exceeded150mm. ..

On June 30th 18, the Central Meteorological Observatory upgraded the yellow rainstorm warning to orange, which is also the first orange rainstorm warning this year! It is estimated that from July 1 day to July 4, the Huaihe River Basin will encounter the largest range of heavy rainfall this year! There will be heavy rains in the eastern part of Southwest China, Jianghan, southern Huanghuai, Jianghuai, western Jiangnan and northern along the Yangtze River, and there will be heavy rains in the local area. Among them, the cumulative rainfall in parts of central and northern Jiangsu, southeastern Henan, eastern Hubei and northwestern Hunan can reach 200-400 mm. These areas are accompanied by strong convective weather such as short-term thunderstorms and strong winds, and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity is 60-90 mm.

We know that the previous precipitation has been abundant, the soil has been "full" and the rivers and lakes have been "high". The arrival of this heavy rainfall will greatly increase the risk of mountain torrents, mudslides, landslides, collapses, floods and other disasters, which is tantamount to "adding insult to injury" to the already severe flood control and disaster prevention situation.

In view of this, the National Defense General has upgraded the emergency response to flood control from level 4 to level 3, and the China Meteorological Bureau has also upgraded the emergency response to major meteorological disasters (rainstorms) from level 4 to level 3!

Severe "Future" —— Responding to "98+" flood control standard.

Since the beginning of this year, climate anomalies have occurred in many parts of the world, and one of the driving forces behind this is El Ni? o. Although the super El Ni? o has left, it is a pity that its "afterglow" is still there due to the lagging response of atmospheric circulation to ocean changes. It is still difficult to get rid of the "shadow" of El Ni? o in the future, and the possibility of extreme weather and climate events such as heavy rain is still very high. The previous law also shows that after the end of El Ni? o, there was often more precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in that year, and there was a greater possibility of a major flood disaster.

According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, the precipitation in Jianghuai, Jianghan, the eastern part of Southwest China, Huanghuai, the southeastern part of North China and the southeastern part of Northeast China may be too high in July and August this year, and there may be heavy rains and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Huaihe River Basin, Yellow River Basin and Liaohe River Basin. The average intensity of typhoons affecting China in the second half of the year is relatively high.

You should remember the catastrophic flood at 1998. Extraordinary floods occurred in the Yangtze River, Nenjiang River, Songhua River and other basins, which affected a wide range, lasted a long time and caused serious floods. 1998 is the year after the strongest El Nino event in the 20th century, while 20 16 is the year after the strongest El Nino event since 195 1. Their climatic backgrounds are similar. In addition, the past 20 15 was the hottest year in the world since 1880, and the more significant global warming background significantly increased the risk of extreme weather and climate events such as rainstorm in the main flood season this year, and also increased the difficulty of climate prediction.

Therefore, the National Defense General has repeatedly stressed that "there is a great possibility of a major flood this year" and the goal should be to prevent the "98+" Yangtze River catastrophic flood. Of course, after the 1998 flood, the infrastructure construction such as water conservancy in our country has been greatly strengthened, and the "skill" of flood control in all aspects has also been greatly improved. Nevertheless, we should make every effort to prepare for flood control. After all, you can be safe if you are prepared.