How to write the data analysis report of meteorological station

how to write the analysis report of weather forecast

Weather forecast is to forecast the changes of birth, disappearance, movement and intensity of various weather systems in a certain period of time in the future. It is the basis of meteorological element forecast. The methods of situation forecasting can be divided into two categories: one is numerical forecasting method, that is, directly integrating atmospheric equations or its simplified equations, and forecasting the future pressure field, temperature field and wind field according to the obtained results; The other is the weather map method. The latter has the following methods:

empirical extrapolation method

, also known as trend method, is to infer the future position and intensity of various weather systems according to their past moving paths and intensity change trends on weather maps. This method works well when there is no sudden change in the movement and intensity of the weather system or when there is no rebirth or extinction of the weather system. However, when it suddenly changes or the weather system is born or dies, the forecast is often not in line with the reality.

Similar situation method

, also known as pattern method, is to find some similar weather situations from a large number of historical weather maps and summarize them into certain patterns. If the current weather situation is similar to the previous situation of a certain model, it can be predicted with reference to the later evolution of the model. Because similarity is always relative, it is impossible to be exactly the same, so there are often errors in this method.

statistical data method

, also known as correlation method, is to use historical data to make statistics on the occurrence, development and movement of various weather systems in different seasons in history, get their average moving speed, find forecast indicators (such as cyclone generation and typhoon turning) and make predictions. This method cannot be applied to examples that have never appeared in history or move quickly and slowly.

Physical analysis

Firstly, the physical factors of the birth, decline, movement and intensity change of the weather system are analyzed, and then the weather forecast is made. This method usually works well. However, when the simplification and assumption of the motion equation reflecting these physical factors are not in line with the reality, it often leads to prediction errors, even far from the actual situation.

The above four methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, so they need to complement each other, learn from each other's strong points and make comprehensive consideration to achieve better results.

The element forecast editor of weather forecast refers to forecasting the changes of temperature, wind, clouds, precipitation and weather phenomena in a certain period in the future. There are several methods to forecast elements:

Empirical forecasting method

Based on the situation forecast of weather map, the future weather distribution is predicted according to the future position and intensity of weather system. For example, when the low pressure moves and is strengthened, it can be predicted that there will be rainy weather or heavy precipitation in the future. The accuracy of this method depends largely on the experience of forecasters, and the forecast effect is not stable because the weather system and weather phenomena are not one-to-one correspondence.

weather identification: statistical forecast method of rain turning fine

analyze the historical data of weather, seek the correlation between the change of atmospheric state and the previous meteorological factors, use regression equation and probability principle to screen the forecast factors and establish the forecast equation. Substituting the recent meteorological elements into the equation, the required forecast value can be obtained. The effect of this method mainly depends on the correct choice of factors.

dynamic-statistical forecasting method

The future meteorological parameters calculated by numerical forecasting method are used as forecasting factors, and a set of forecasting formulas are obtained by regression equation, so as to forecast the elements. With the improvement of numerical model, the accuracy of this method may be steadily improved.

weather forecast category editing According to the aging length of weather forecast, this section can be divided into:

Short-term forecast: based on radar and satellite detection data, the local strong storm system is monitored on the spot to predict their movements in the next 1-6 hours.

short-term forecast: forecast the weather in the next 24-48 hours.

Medium-term forecast: the forecast for the next 3-15 days, mainly including what kind of weather process is affected, whether there will be disastrous weather and the main weather change trends.

Long-term forecast: usually refers to the forecast from one month to one year. The statistical method is mainly used to forecast according to the deviation between the monthly average value of meteorological elements and the multi-year average value. The method of making long-term forecast by numerical forecasting method is being tested and some progress has been made. The forecast with a time limit of 1-5 years is called ultra-long-term forecast, and those with a time limit of 5 years or more are called climate outlook.

According to the size of the forecast range, the weather forecast can be divided into:

1. Large-scale forecast. Generally speaking, it refers to global forecast, hemispheric forecast, continental or national forecast. Mainly produced by World Meteorological Center, Regional Meteorological Center and National Meteorological Center.

2. Medium-range forecast. Often refers to the province (area), state and regional forecasts, made by provincial, municipal or state meteorological stations and regional meteorological stations.

3. Small-scale forecast. Such as the forecast of a county, city, reservoir, airport and port, etc. These forecasts are made by local meteorological stations.