Rubber will get tired if used for a long time.

The rubber bottom oscillated for more than a year, and no matter the trend strategy or the contrarian strategy, it failed to achieve the expected income. We think that the cost of rubber disk is about 10000 yuan/ton, and it may last for several years if there are no natural disasters such as wind and cold.

The rubber bottom oscillated for more than a year, and no matter the trend strategy or the contrarian strategy, it failed to achieve the expected income. At present, the market is unanimous in looking at aging rubber. The main logic is that around 20 12, large-scale rubber planting is now in a high-yield period, and the demand side of the global economy is too much, which leads to the long-term weakness of natural rubber. Now we mainly consider two issues. First, how much can it be reduced, that is, what is the disk cost of natural rubber? Second, what factors can really stimulate rubber to go cattle?

Let's analyze the cost problem first. The production cost of natural rubber mainly consists of three parts: one is the cost of planting rubber, the other is the labor cost of tapping rubber, and the third is the processing and transportation cost.

Let's take Hainan as an example: the planting cost per mu is 425 yuan/mu, the output per mu in Hainan is 75 kg/mu, the transportation cost is 1500 yuan/ton, and the rubber cutter takes 55%. Finally, we calculated the average cost of rubber in Hainan as 13000 yuan/ton. Whenever it is lower than 13000 yuan/ton, there will be a large area of wasteland in Hainan. It is considered that 13000 yuan/ton is the cost price of Hainan rubber at that time.

The wage cost of the main rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia is Malaysia >: Thailand >: Vietnam > Indonesia, because 90% of rubber exporting countries are concentrated in four Southeast Asian countries, and the output of Thailand and Indonesia accounts for 70%. If the price is too low, give up rubber tapping, but the cost price of rubber will never be lower than Thailand (output 36%). We choose the average wage in Thailand as the calculation, because below the average wage, the willingness of workers to engage in rubber tapping will be reduced, and large-scale rubber abandonment will occur.

Because when tapping natural rubber, the average rubber gardener and rubber tapping worker will divide the rubber into five parts, and the rubber cost mainly depends on the local labor cost. According to the data, the average wage in Thailand (14,842 baht) is equivalent to RMB 3,350/month, while the average wage in Hainan is 53 10 yuan/month. According to the corresponding calculation, the rubber cost in Thailand should be around 8300 yuan/.

We observed the historical average transaction price chart of rubber in Bangkok, and found that a small area was abandoned at the end of 20 15 when the global economy was the most pessimistic. Corresponding to the lowest price 125 USD/100KG, it is equivalent to 8500 yuan/ton, which is similar to our estimated price. We think it is difficult to make a new low.

Then we calculate the arrival price: 17% tax rate, 20% tariff rate, or tobacco flake glue imported from China 1500 yuan/ton, whichever is lower. The cost of importing natural rubber from Southeast Asia to China is 8300+ 1500 = 9800 (RMB/ton), and the price increase of Qingdao warehouse can also be verified.

Then we need to calculate the related costs of delivery, including: first, the transaction fee, which is 0.45 ‰ of the transaction amount. Two, the delivery fee, both parties pay 4 yuan/ton. The third is the storage fee, which is paid by the seller according to 1.3 yuan/day from the completion of storage to the final delivery. 4. Storage fee, 30 yuan/ton (the seller pays the storage fee and the buyer pays the distribution fee). 5. Quality inspection fee 15 yuan/ton (1500 yuan/100t for one batch, and less than100t for one batch). 6. Printing fee for warehouse receipts: 10 yuan/ton (100 yuan/sheet, and the face value of each warehouse receipt is1ton). Seventh, capital occupation interest: including spot occupation cost and futures margin occupation cost. Eight is value-added tax.

Therefore, the delivery cost is about 367 yuan/ton, plus the rubber cost price is 9700 yuan/ton, and the futures disk price is about 10000 yuan/ton, which should be a reasonable rubber disk cost.

Let's look at another question, how does rubber take the bull market? Because tires, as the main demand of natural rubber, are closely related to the global economic trend, it is unlikely that the economy will improve significantly in the short term. On the supply side, rubber trees were planted in a large area in Thailand around 20 10, and the newly planted rubber trees are now in a high-yield period, and the supply will still exceed the demand in the next few years. Because rubber is a perennial plant with high initial investment, it is generally not easy to give up tapping or cutting down rubber forests. Rubber tapping has income. If they don't cut, they won't cut. This is their main source of income. Supply and demand are relatively stable, and inventory and warehouse receipts can be observed in real time. If rubber is to rise sharply, it may only be a major weather disaster in the main producing areas for the time being. Let's first look at the effects of several common climates on natural rubber. First, drought, tropical plants are not short of rain, and rubber has strong drought resistance. Second, waterlogging, too much rain may lead to collagen disease of rubber trees, and the key is to affect the rubber tapping activities of rubber farmers. Third, wind, tropical plants have shallow roots, and strong wind will lead to large-scale production reduction. Fourth, cold, tropical plants generally have poor cold resistance.

According to the above analysis, we think that the cost of rubber trays is about 10000 yuan/ton, which may last for several years if there are no natural disasters such as air cooling.

(Author: Chuangyuan Futures)

Source: Futures Daily

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