★ What is the "butterfly effect"? What is the "chilling effect"? ★

The butterfly effect was put forward by meteorologist Lorenz 1963.

A butterfly flapping its wings occasionally in the tropical rain forest of Amazon basin in South America may cause a tornado in Texas within two weeks. The reason is that the movement of butterfly wings leads to the change of the surrounding air system, producing weak airflow, which in turn will cause the corresponding change of the surrounding air or other systems, causing a chain reaction, which will eventually lead to great changes in other systems.

This effect shows that the result of the development of things is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, and the smallest deviation of the initial conditions will cause great differences in the results.

Sociology uses "butterfly effect" to explain a bad tiny mechanism, which will bring great harm to society if it is not guided and adjusted in time, and is dubbed "tornado" or "storm"; A good micro-mechanism, as long as it is guided correctly, will have a sensational effect after a period of efforts, or it will be called a "revolution."

The condition of butterfly effect is that it spreads through the air, and the air itself will also produce resistance. That is to say, in the Amazon river, the power of butterfly flapping wings spreads with the vibration of the air, and the scope is wide, but the power is weakened, which loses the significance of this theory. So the theory has several necessary conditions: 1, response. 2. Have a good wind. 3. enhance. We can learn from the spiral theory of silence to analyze.

What is the butterfly effect? Let's talk about the discovery of Lorenz, a meteorologist at MIT. In order to forecast the weather, he solved the 13 equation simulating the earth's atmosphere by computer. In order to check the results more carefully, he took out an intermediate solution, improved the accuracy and sent it back. And when he came back to watch it after drinking a cup of coffee, he was surprised: it was a little short, but the result was a hundred thousand miles short! There was nothing wrong with the computer, so Lorenz decided that he had discovered a new phenomenon: "extreme instability to the initial value", namely "chaos", also known as "butterfly effect". The flapping of Asian butterflies will make a tornado worse than strong winds appear in the United States in a few months!

This discovery is so serious that scientists don't understand it, and several scientific journals also refuse to publish his articles, thinking that it is "against common sense": if similar initial values are substituted into some equations, the results should be similar, how can they be far apart!

Linearity refers to the proportion and linear relationship between quantity and quantity, representing regular smooth motion in space and time; Nonlinear refers to the non-proportional and nonlinear relationship, which is characterized by irregular movement and mutation. For example, how many times is the eyesight of two eyes more than that of one eye? It's easy to think it's twice, but it's actually 6- 10! This is nonlinearity: 1+ 1 is not equal to 2.

The generation of laser is nonlinear! When the applied voltage is small, the laser is like an ordinary electric lamp, and the light scatters in all directions; When the applied voltage reaches a certain value, a new phenomenon will suddenly appear: the excited atoms seem to hear the command of "align to the right" and emit monochromatic light in the same phase and direction, that is, laser.

The characteristic of nonlinearity is that it spans all professions and permeates all fields, which can be said to be "everywhere".

For example, there is chaos in celestial motion; The oscillation of electricity, light and sound waves will suddenly fall into chaos; The geomagnetic field changed direction 16 times in 4 million years, also because of chaos. Even human beings are inherently nonlinear: contrary to traditional thinking, the EEG and heartbeat of healthy people are not regular, but chaotic, and chaos is the expression of vitality. Chaotic systems respond faster to external stimuli than non-chaotic systems.

It can be seen that nonlinearity is around us and can't be hidden.

1979 12, Lorenz pointed out in a speech of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil may cause a tornado in Texas. His speech and conclusion left a deep impression on people. Since then, the so-called "butterfly effect" has spread like wildfire, and its reputation has spread far and wide.

The reason why the butterfly effect is fascinating, gripping and thought-provoking lies not only in its bold imagination and charming aesthetic color, but also in its profound scientific connotation and inherent philosophical charm.

Chaos theory holds that in a chaotic system, very small changes in initial conditions, after constant amplification, will cause great differences in its future state. We can use a folk song circulating in the west to illustrate this image. This ballad says:

Drop a nail and break a shoe;

Broke a shoe and a horse;

Fold a horse and hurt a knight;

Wounded a knight and lost a battle;

Lost a battle and lost an empire.

Whether a nail on the horseshoe will be lost is a very small change in the initial conditions, but its "long-term" effect is the fundamental difference between the life and death of an empire. This is the so-called "butterfly effect" in the field of military politics.

It's a little incredible, but it can really cause such bad consequences. A wise leader must prevent procrastination, but seemingly trivial things may lead to disintegration within the collective. Is it too late to regret at that time?

A suspension bridge across a deep valley usually begins with a small stone tied to a thin line.

Chilling effect is a legal term, especially when discussing freedom of speech or assembly. It means that people are afraid of being punished by the state or having to face high compensation because of their speech, just like cicadas are silent in cold weather. The occurrence of chilling effect will lead to the lack of public attention, which is regarded as the adverse consequence of excessively restricting freedom of speech or assembly.

The chilling effect is a legal term, especially when discussing freedom of speech or assembly. It means that people are afraid of being punished by the state for their words or facing high compensation. They dare not speak, just like cicadas are silent in cold weather. The occurrence of chilling effect will lead to the lack of public attention, which is regarded as the adverse consequence of excessively suppressing freedom of speech or assembly.

It is hard to say that the supreme leader of dictatorship has cicada singing and chilling effect.

In units and places where corruption happens to be detected by superiors, people often have such questions: Where is the Commission for Discipline Inspection? Some people say: the commission for discipline inspection is there, okay. Some people say: the commission for discipline inspection has always been in the front line. Some people say that the Commission for Discipline Inspection is also a blank stare and can only turn a blind eye. Others said: the Commission for Discipline Inspection is also corrupt and is in cahoots with others.

In fact, everyone has the responsibility of supervision. Isn't it "the people are the masters of the country"? Then, can we ask a few more questions: where have you been, where have I been, and where has he gone? Someone said: it's all here, okay. My answer is: no, it isn't. Can the social crowd be divided into three parts: first, very few people, such as Guo Guangyun and Chen, are at the front line. Second, a few of you, me and others are corrupt, collaborators and bad guys. Third, most of you, me and others (more than 90%) are middlemen and dangling people. They are the source and foundation of strength that determines the social state, but they are extremely unstable. They sway over, which may be a disaster with unpredictable consequences. When they swing, it may be a rare progress or revolution. For example, at the Twelfth Plenary Session of the Eighth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, a few people insisted on expelling Liu Shaoqi from the Party, and all the "waverers" raised their hands when voting, except the female general Chen Shaomin. Kang Sheng asked her why she didn't raise her hand. She said it was my right. But it is precisely because the vast majority of people gave up their power and justice and swayed to the side of the evil minority that it led to an eternal injustice and national disaster. As far as the current situation is concerned, the surface is stable, but the undercurrent is turbulent. With the help of the present freedom of speech, they can boldly shout: oppose corruption, overthrow corruption, go up, fight, where is the discipline inspection commission! But to really let him rush up like Guo Guangyun and He, he is timid again. Why? Because more than 90% of these people are "smart people" in a sense, it is very simple, they all know that "eggs hit stones". Some people may ask: What about yourself? To tell the truth: I used to be a "big fool" for a long time. Later, due to repeated practice, I finally became a little "smart" after discovering the truth that "the dictatorship of the number one was originally a replica of feudal autocracy."

This should be said from the "root". How did it happen from the silence of the secretary of the Commission for Discipline Inspection to the chilling effect of most cadres of the Commission for Discipline Inspection, from the silence of Guo Guangyun of Hebei, Chen of Hainan and female generals to the chilling effect of most middlemen? Isn't it caused by the dictatorship of the top leader who copied from feudal autocracy? If this problem is not solved, the vicious circle of "pressing the gourd to float the ladle", changing the bodhisattva without tearing down the temple (reforming the organizational structure) will never change.

The author has always believed that feudalism should be re-recognized. To what extent was overthrown? Stealing thought can only be said to have been overthrown in theory and constitution, but it is far from being overthrown in organizational structure, especially the feudal organizational structure and official standard consciousness, which still exist deeply and widely. Putting all kinds of "all-round" supervision institutions under the personal control of "top leaders" is the embodiment of naked feudal organizational structure. (On June 12, the author published the article "On the Individual Division of Labor and Responsibility System in Power is the Root of All Evil" in the deep water area of People's Network Power Forum, and made a detailed statement on the organizational structure reform, under the pen name Yiliang)

In a word, only by reforming the current organizational structure and implementing the great idea of "mutual restriction of decision-making, execution and supervision" can we completely abolish the "top-ranking dictatorship" and smoothly enter the era of political civilization.