Traditional Culture Encyclopedia - Weather inquiry - Why is the weather forecast inaccurate?
Why is the weather forecast inaccurate?
First of all, the weather forecast you get is a comprehensive weather forecast based on numerical weather forecast and other methods. Simply put, it is to analyze and predict the values of various weather factors such as temperature and humidity. However, taking numerical forecast as the representative, it only takes decades to solve and calculate the simplified physical process of weather changes, and people have not fully grasped the internal mechanisms and laws of the occurrence and evolution of many weather phenomena. Modern meteorological science is still an extremely young subject. Secondly, especially in summer, the climate has the characteristics of strong mutation, which is difficult to accurately grasp. Therefore, this forecast should also be constantly changing and need to be constantly updated. However, once the forecast results provided by the meteorological observatory are broadcast, they cannot be updated in time. The public generally think that it is the weather situation of the day, which makes the public feel that the forecast is inaccurate. Thirdly, the greenhouse effect caused by urban heat island and industrial emissions, as well as the complex terrain have a decisive impact on the weather changes, vegetation, water bodies and so on are undergoing subtle changes, which can not be described in detail in the simulation calculation. At the same time, the coverage of weather detection system is incomplete, which leads to incomplete simulation and inaccurate forecast. Fourth, the forecast of meteorological stations is not only aimed at the public, but also the most important task is to provide information on disastrous weather for flood control departments, which is related to the safety of people's lives and property. This requires that it should not be omitted, especially at the critical moment of flood control in summer, "it is better to leak if it is empty" (if the forecast does not happen, it is called "empty report" in jargon, and it is called "missing report" in jargon), which is also a reason why people think that the forecast is not accurate. Finally, the difference between human somatosensory temperature and temperature is also an important reason why people think the weather forecast is inaccurate. The temperature mentioned in the forecast refers to the temperature in the louver box, which is on the lawn, off the ground 1.5 meters, ventilated and not exposed to direct sunlight. But people's somatosensory temperature is influenced by many factors. At the same temperature, there is a great difference between sunshine and shade, windy and windless, wet and dry, and the difference in feeling is generally above 5 degrees Celsius. And in the scorching sun, the ground temperature is much higher than the temperature. When the temperature is 35 degrees Celsius, the temperature of the surface soil can be 50 degrees Celsius, and the temperature of the cement or asphalt road can be 70 to 80 degrees Celsius. So walking on the road, I feel that the temperature is far more than 35 degrees Celsius, so I have doubts about the weather forecast.
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