The weather forecast is too inaccurate. Who can tell me why?

1, the famous historical development butterfly effect, the word butterfly effect comes from weather forecast. It means that a little bump caused by butterfly flapping its wings can affect the weather, gradually change more and more, and finally completely subvert the original development track. Similarly, weather forecasting is as difficult as predicting tomorrow's history. Any unexpected, newly generated airflow, water vapor evaporated in the sun today, unexpected airflow that changes the direction of clouds, etc. It will make the weather forecast inaccurate.

2. Psychological function theory. It is often said that the weather forecast is not as accurate as the old people or that they can see clouds by themselves. Well, can the old man tell you the weather and temperature tomorrow every night? Old people only talk about it every week or before the weather changes dramatically. When they are sure, they will say that the natural hit rate is higher. Besides, the weather forecast is going on every day, usually not allowed only once or twice a month? It's already high.

3. Functional understanding is different. The forecast is just a reference. Not a prophecy. The original intention of weather forecast is to serve the army. You can make preparations in advance before forecasting the wind track and rainstorm disaster, and it is not convenient to dry millet tomorrow.

4. The meteorological standards are different. How do you understand the word "heavy rain" in your heart? It will rain. It's huge. This is called heavy rain, isn't it? Meteorology, the 24-hour precipitation is 25-49.9 mm or 1 hour precipitation is 8. 1~ 16.0 mm, that is to say, if it rains cats and dogs for half a minute, it may just be a "light rain".