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# Oil price plummets # The rise and fall of agricultural products is a double-edged sword. It is not only worried that the price is too low to hurt farmers' hearts, but also that the price is too high for ordinary residents to afford.

In September, new changes took place in the agricultural product market.

The logic of the rise and fall of pig prices is unclear and a bit chaotic. Yesterday, it rose across the board, and today it is a moth to the fire; Although the price of corn is strong, it still keeps rising under the pressure of new grain listing, but today's market has fallen a lot; Although the price fluctuation of sheep is not big, it has been weak recently, and the rebound market has turned off again; Egg prices dive at a high level and are still falling in the near future; After the first rise in the "second half of the year", oil prices have been falling for several days in a row, and there is not much suspense in the 18 round of oil price reduction.

What is the market like? Where is the future? Let's share them with you one by one:

0 1, pig prices rose weakly.

After a few days' increase, the price of live pigs will return to 1 1.825 yuan/kg again, and farmers will average out 1 head, which will bring 600-700 yuan's breeding profit.

However, the pig market went up by pressing the pause button. On September 14, the national pig price fluctuated, and the price increase and decrease ratio of each province was 10: 10. The market has been divided and conflicted, which is a bit chaotic.

Among them, the rising provinces are mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions such as East China, Central China and South China, among which: the pig price in Guangxi rose by 0.2 yuan, 1 1.8- 12.2 yuan/kg; Shanghai inflation 1 gross, 12.0- 12.2 yuan/kg; Fujian hair growth 1, 12. 1- 12.5 yuan/kg; Jiangsu gross inflation 1, 1 1.7- 12.0 yuan/kg; Zhejiang, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Gansu and other provinces all rose 1 gross.

The declining provinces are mainly concentrated in North China, Northeast China and other northern regions: Beijing and Tianjin decreased by 0. 1 yuan,1.7-12.0 yuan/kg; Shanxi fell 1 gross,11.4-1.9 yuan/kg; Hebei fell 2 hairs,11.5-11.9 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang fell 2 hairs,11.3-11.5 yuan/kg; Liaoning fell by 0. 15 yuan,11.3-1.7 yuan/kg; Anhui, Shandong, Henan and Sichuan also declined, as shown in the attached table:

The pig price just fell and rose, rose and fell, and the high level fluctuated obviously, mainly because of the interweaving of "bullish" and "bearish", and it was difficult to choose the direction for a while.

When the pig price rises, unfavorable factors such as farmers' willingness to slaughter and slaughter enterprises' price reduction will play an obvious role, and the pig price will drop several times; When the pig price drops for a few days, under the background of the rising cycle of pigs, farmers are reluctant to sell at a high price, and the meat price is still at a high level, which leads to a decline in sales, so the pig price will rise again.

From the analysis of market supply and demand, the second half of September will still be dominated by volatile market. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter after the National Day, the price of pigs will rise again in the case of rising consumption in all aspects.

In 2002, corn fell in many places.

After entering the middle of August, the market of corn has picked up. Even when new corn came on the market one after another, there was a partial increase, and the scale of new grain increased by 200 yuan/ton, which played a stabilizing role in farmers' mood this year.

For today's decline in the corn market, you don't have to worry too much. Maybe it will fall back a little. Stepping on the market, the market will rise more healthily.

The latest quotation shows that three enterprises in Shandong fell: Weifang Tian Li Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. fell by 0.2 point, 1.368 yuan/kg; Linqing gold corn fell 0.2 points, 1.365 yuan/kg; Hengren Industry and Trade fell 0.5 point, 1.400 yuan/kg.

Two enterprises in Hebei Province lowered their prices: Qinhuangdao Lihua fell 1.0, 1.340 yuan/kg; Changlipeng fell 1.0 points, 1.300 yuan/kg.

Two enterprises in Heilongjiang fell: Cyclobalanopsis Longfeng fell by 0.25 points, 1.325 yuan/kg; Suihua Haotian fell 0.3 points, 1.332 yuan/kg.

Gansu Pingliang Guowei fell 1.0 points, 1.360 yuan/kg; The Jade King of Kailu, Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, fell 0.3 points, 1.367 yuan/kg.

From the perspective of falling areas, enterprises in North China, Northeast China, Shandong and other regions have all fallen back, and the overall decline rate is not large, so there is no need to over-interpret it.

I am still optimistic about the market outlook. As for the reason, I have explained it many times in previous articles. Simply put, there are three main aspects:

First, it is predicted that international corn production will decline in 2022. The United States Department of Agriculture recently reported that due to high temperature and flood disasters, corn production and total output in the United States, the European Union and other places have all decreased their expectations.

Second, the supply of international trade is uncertain. Officials from Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture, an important country in corn production and export, claimed that corn production was affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, some insiders have analyzed that there are also great uncertainties in Ukrainian corn exports, which is unfavorable to the global corn trade supply.

Third, the breeding industry is picking up, and the high price of wheat creates conditions for corn to enter the feed market. The number of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry is on the rise, especially in the cold weather in the fourth quarter, and the demand is greater; In addition, the current price of wheat is 0. 15-0.2 yuan higher than that of corn, and corn will become the new favorite of feed market.

03. The price of sheep fell and the transaction was light.

This year's sheep price market trend is relatively clear, mainly falling in the first half of the year. In July and August, the local sheep price rebounded, and recently it fell again.

The latest sheep price shows: 650 yuan, Changzhi, Shanxi, a 30 kg male lamb, Huaibei 120 kg fattening sheep, 16.3 yuan/kg; Yunnan Xuanwei eliminated ewes 16.5 yuan/kg; Qingdao fattening sheep 16.2 yuan/kg; Elimination of ewes in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang 13.5 yuan/kg; The price of sheep in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia 14.5- 15.0 yuan/kg.

The price of sheep is lower, but the price of mutton is still firm. At present, the mainstream wholesale price of mutton is still around 40 yuan/kg, and the mainstream wholesale price is also 32-35 yuan/kg.

According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork was 30.89 yuan/kg on September 3 14:00, up 0.7% from the previous month. Mutton was 67.30 yuan/kg, down 0. 1% compared with that before the festival.

At present, the price of sheep is low. According to some netizens, the sheep trading in the local farmers' market is relatively light, selling more and selling less, and the price is relatively serious, which is also very unfavorable to the sheep industry.

Mainly because: the cost of raising sheep is high now, mainly due to the influence of feed price increase, coupled with artificial price increase, according to the current price of sheep, the profit is too low, and many people want to leave the sheep industry.

04, the price of eggs fell mercilessly.

Recently 1 week, the egg market has dropped significantly. Take the local market as an example. At the beginning of September, the retail price of eggs in local supermarket in Suiling, Heilongjiang Province was sold to 6.8 yuan/kg, but it only took about 10 day. Now the retail price of eggs has dropped to 5.38 yuan/kg, or 5 cents per kg 1.4.

From the national situation, the mainstream price of eggs in China has also dropped to 5.2-5.5 yuan/kg, and the mainstream retail price has dropped to about 5.3-6.0 yuan, with a significant price drop.

According to the latest egg price, eggs in Beijing have generally fallen, and Dayang Road, Huilongguan, Wangsiying, Laiguangying, Shunyi Gate, Changping and other places have all dropped by 5 yuan/basket, with a price of 240 yuan /44 kg.

Tianjin Jixian, Baodi, Wuqing and other places fell to 5 yuan, 225 yuan /44 kg; Shandong Weifang Changle fell to 5 yuan, 235 yuan /45 kg; Dujiangyan County, Henan Province decreased by 0. 1 yuan, 5.2 yuan/kg.

The decline in egg prices is mainly affected by changes in supply and demand, specifically:

First, the consumption of eggs decreased after the holiday, which put some pressure on the market.

Second, the price of eggs is still high. Generally recognized by residents, the price of eggs is between 4.5-5.0 yuan/kg, while the price of eggs exceeds that of 5.5 yuan, so there is resistance to consumption.

Third, egg production has increased. Due to the increase in the number of laying hens in May and the disappearance of stress reaction when the weather turns cold, the egg production has increased.

As for the next market, there is still room for eggs to go down, but due to the National Day holiday, there is limited room for eggs to go down. However, after the National Day holiday, eggs are more likely to return to 5 yuan.

05, oil price crash warning

Good news! After the oil price was raised on September 6, the statistical results of oil prices for several consecutive working days made everyone feel that oil prices were going to fall again.

According to the latest data, crude oil has dropped by 7. 1 1%, and it is expected to drop by 335 yuan/ton, or by 0.26-0.30 yuan/liter.

Judging from the decline, the decline of 335 yuan far exceeds the benchmark of fluctuating price adjustment in 50 yuan, and the current oil price is in a state of sharp decline.

According to the current adjustment range, the next round of oil price adjustment window will be at 24: 00 on September 2 1 day, and 50 liters of fuel tank will be filled, which will save 13- 15 yuan, which is still not small.

Dear friends, the prices of live pigs, grain, eggs and gasoline are all falling recently, which is undoubtedly good news for consumers, and the pressure of life will be alleviated. What do you think of the price reduction? What is the price there? Welcome to express your views for your reference.