Is the smog still very serious in Tianjin now?

Perhaps as an ordinary person, the only thing I can understand is the size of the numerical column. Looking back at the weather this year, many netizens have expressed their views on smog control: "The smog this year is too big", "The smog in the New Year is really long this time" and "The smog control has not improved for a long time".

Is that really the case? Is it an illusion, or is the smog really not reduced? Tracing back to the source, through the analysis of these questions, I will answer your questions.

1。 What are the pollutants in smog?

2。 Have these pollutants really decreased?

3。 Why do you feel that the smog at 20 16 is heavier?

To solve the first problem, let's start with one of the most common values, which is the AQI index that we can find on our mobile phones every day. AQI index, I believe many people are familiar with it. It has never left our life since the day it came into our sight. AQI is an air quality index, which is a comprehensive value composed of several pollution values in the air, such as PM2.5, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and ozone.

Tianjin AQI index 20 17 65438+ 10/2.

The staff of the Atmospheric Department of Tianjin Environmental Protection Bureau told us: "PM2.5 consists of two parts, one part is dust accounting for 30%, and the other part is the secondary generation of pollutants, which is what we call nitrogen oxides. What is it made of? The answer is the burning of fossil fuels, in which the burning of gasoline and diesel accounts for a huge proportion. "

Statistics show that up to now, the consumption of gasoline and diesel in Tianjin has increased by 24% and 65,438+00% respectively compared with 2065,438+03. According to the source analysis results of PM2.5, the contribution of motor vehicle pollution increased from 65,438+06% in 2065,438+03 to 22%.

Looking at carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide in AQI, the staff of the Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau said that these two pollutants mainly come from coal burning. Coal combustion includes two parts, one is the combustion of energy structure coal, and the other is the combustion pollution of loose coal.

The energy structure of Tianjin's steel and petrochemical industry is still dominated by coal, but is Tianjin's governance enough? We can tell you for sure that Tianjin is even more car-scrapping than the national standard in this regard. According to the data released by Tianjin Environmental Protection Bureau this year, in 20 16, there were 366,595 coal-fired boilers in the city, reducing the coal consumption100000 tons compared with 20 12. In 20 17, we will achieve the goal of "clearing all the central city, the four districts around the city and Binhai New Area of 35 tons and below, and all other districts 10 tons and below", and all the coal-fired power units in service in the city will achieve ultra-low emissions.

In terms of loose coal combustion, although the coverage rate of central heating in the city has reached 92.3%, there are still 250,000 loose coal users in rural and urban areas who still use their old way of burning loose coal. According to calculation, the air pollutant emission of 1 ton of loose coal is more than 10 times of that of electric coal. Especially in quiet weather, low-altitude emission of loose coal has become the main source of pollutants in Tianjin, and the contribution value of carbon monoxide in some areas with large loose coal base has reached 56.4%.

So have these pollutants decreased? In 20 13, the concentration of PM2.5 in Tianjin was 96 μ g/m3, but in 20 15, it had dropped to 70 μ g/m3, which was 27. 1% lower than that in 20 13. Compared with the "Ten Atmospheric Articles" task proposed by the State Council in 20 13, Tianjin has completed the "Ten Atmospheric Articles" target task ahead of schedule. For example, by the end of 20 16, all 20 coal-fired units of 300,000 kilowatts and above in Tianjin had been cleaned up, and 844 coal-fired boilers were shut down and eliminated. Shut down 749 backward polluting enterprises; All thermal power units above 200,000 kilowatts in the city have completed desulfurization, denitrification and dust removal treatment, and completed the treatment of key industries of 65438+V0Cs; Implement livelihood projects such as changing heating boilers from coal to electricity. The proportion of gas heating increased from 0.4% in 20 10 to 38%, and the proportion of clean energy such as thermoelectric and gas heating increased from 3 1.7% to 78.7%. The collection standard of sewage charges has been raised, and the detailed rules for the collection of construction dust sewage charges and VOCs sewage charges have been issued, and the way of "substituting awards for subsidies" and "promoting governance with awards" has been adopted for environmental pollution prevention and control expenditures; Promulgating the Regulations of Tianjin Municipality on the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution; Realize the unification of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei early warning grading standards, and establish a platform for early warning and consultation of heavy pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and seven surrounding provinces and cities; When the heavily polluted weather happened, 43 key industrial enterprises, 3007 construction sites and 239 mixing stations in the city 1226 general industrial enterprises1226 stopped working; A grid supervisor for air pollution prevention and control was set up to mobilize the whole people to participate in environmental protection and supervision.

Especially at 20 16, the values of sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide in Tianjin are obviously lower than the national standard, and the values of nitrogen dioxide are close to the national standard. However, we can still see that the improvement of PM2.5 has narrowed this year, but the reason is not entirely due to the pollutant discharge in this region, but the "willful" unfavorable climatic conditions this year, which makes the pollutants in neighboring provinces and cities mutually transmitted. Some data show that the influence of regional transport of pollutants accounts for 22%-34%.

According to the statistical data monitored by Fengyun-3 satellite of the Central Meteorological Observatory, since June 2065438+June 2065438+10, there have been seven persistent moderate to severe haze weather processes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, two times more than that in the same period of 2065438 +05, and the average haze days are 23 days, five days more than that in the same period of 2065438 +05. Among them, 16 to 2 1 and 12 to 20 17 have a wide range, long duration and heavy pollution. The monitoring of FY-3 meteorological satellite 20 17 1.2 shows that the smog area in central and eastern China exceeds 700,000 square kilometers.

According to the global climate recently released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 20 16 is the year with the highest temperature in the world since meteorological records began. In 20 16, the temperature in China was the third highest in history, and the highest was in June of 5438+02. Many people also think that this winter is not cold, so in the context of climate warming, extreme weather and climate events are gradually increasing.

Especially, the temperature rise in winter is greater than that in summer, the temperature rise in high latitudes is greater than that in low latitudes, and the temperature difference between high latitudes and low latitudes is reduced, which is not conducive to the cold air going south, making the cold air process less and the overall intensity weaker, and also leading to frequent haze weather in recent years. For example, in New Delhi, India, Iran, Paris, France, Madrid, Spain, Seoul, South Korea and other places, severe haze weather occurred in June+10 in 5438.

According to the monitoring of the National Climate Center, since June 2011/,the frequency of cold air in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is less, the average wind speed is smaller, and the number of windy days is more, which leads to the low atmospheric environmental capacity, weak atmospheric self-purification ability and more haze days in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region recently.

Cold air appears less frequently and its intensity is generally weak. Since June 165438+ 10, the winter monsoon in East Asia has been weak, and there are only six cold air processes in China, which is less than the normal period (8.2 times). The intensity of cold air is generally weak, and the activity path is northward. Without the influence of cold air, the weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is quiet and stable, and the meteorological conditions for atmospheric diffusion are poor.

The average wind speed is small and there are many windy days. Since 196 1 year, the annual average wind speed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been decreasing year by year, with a decreasing range of 37%, while the annual average windy days have increased by 64%. Since June 2065438 +065438+2006 10, the average wind speed in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is smaller than that in the same period of normal years (June 2065438 +098 1 to June 2065438 +00), of which June 2065438+/. To really disperse the smog, it takes at least 4M/ s wind speed to blow it away.

The atmospheric environmental capacity is low, and the atmospheric self-purification ability is weak. Since 196 1 year, the atmospheric environmental capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has decreased from 1 1 to 12, with a decrease of 42%. Compared with the same period of normal years, the atmospheric environmental capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is 6% lower, the atmospheric self-purification capacity is low 15%, and the number of quiet weather days accounts for 63%. In other words, in the past, we evacuated 100 particles in the space of 100 square meters, and now it has been reduced by more than half. If you want to empty excess particles in a space of 50 square meters, the atmospheric environmental capacity will be reduced and the self-purification ability will be weakened.

This further explains why we mistakenly think that 20 16 smog is heavy. According to the unified data of the whole year, the days of air quality reaching the standard in Tianjin are still increasing steadily, which is 6 days more than that in 20 15 years, 50 days more than that in 200 14 years, and 8 days more than that in 20 13 years.

Because like you, I don't like smog weather and the feeling of wearing a mask, so I try my best to find some problems from various data, but the facts tell us that the government's iron fist pollution control efforts are increasing year by year, and various governance measures also dare to "move the real thing". In the future, the blue sky and white clouds that we live in Tianjin will become more and more common.