La Nina phenomenon The weather is cold this year.

Although the weather forecast from China shows that the cold air will be seamlessly connected in the next few days. 1 October 30th-10/October 30th,165438+1October1,and there will be rain and snow in north China and northeast China from west to east. After this cold air passes, there will be a new air flow from1October 2 to 4.

This is the case in the north. Looking at the whole country, we are about to enter 1 1. At this time in previous years, people should be sent to conquer, put on down jackets and stay indoors and dare not go out.

However, the temperature in many areas this year is maintained at a comfortable temperature of around 20℃. When everyone is glad that there will be a "warm winter" this year without wearing thick clothes, the latest data of the World Meteorological Organization show that the La Nina time predicted by the World Meteorological Organization lasts from 65438+February 2022 to February 2023, with a 55% probability that it may become a reality, which means that this winter is likely to occur.

"Triple" La Nina event means that La Nina phenomenon appeared in winter for three consecutive years.

La Nina phenomenon, contrary to El Ni? o phenomenon, is a phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to cool abnormally in a large range.

La Nina event has a great influence on China's climate, which usually leads to meteorological phenomena such as summer fever, drought in the south and waterlogging in the north. However, the continuous high temperature and lack of rain in Hunan, Sichuan, Chongqing and Jiangxi this year fully conforms to the characteristics of La Nina event, which will lead to "cold winter" in winter. This year is a very rare "triple" La Nina event (1958).

According to the National Meteorological Administration, although this summer's "hot summer" and "southern drought" are in line with the performance of La Ni? a phenomenon, and there will be years of low temperature in China after La Ni? a phenomenon, this cannot be used as the basis for this year's "cold winter". Even if they are all La Ni? a phenomena, the impact of each La Ni? a phenomenon is different, depending on the development time and intensity of La Ni? a events.

Because China's winter climate will not only be affected by La Nina phenomenon, but also by Eurasian snow, Arctic sea ice and other factors.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the La Ni? a event in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued this year, but the sea level temperature in other areas in September-165438+ 10 was still generally above average, which would lead to higher than normal temperatures in many land areas in the northern hemisphere. China is in the northern hemisphere, and a large part of it is located in the land area, which means that there will be no super cold winter this year, but a warm winter.

The Influence of La Nina Event on Farmers

Comparatively speaking, farmers should be the most sensitive group to weather changes. Drought and flood will affect the yield and quality of crops, and then affect the economic income of farmers this year.

In fact, La Nina incident is a "good thing" for farmers. In June this year, the British magazine Nature issued a warning that La Nina event will increase the probability of floods in Southeast Asia and increase the risk of drought in the southwestern United States.

Floods and droughts will lead to a decline in food production, thus pushing up international food prices.

Recently, domestic wheat prices have continued to rise. Apart from poor transportation and improved demand for flour, there is also an important reason for the increase in international wheat prices.

If the international food price rises to a higher level, it will definitely drive the domestic food price to rise further.

At present, the price of wheat has risen to about 1.62 yuan. With the further improvement of flour demand, the price of wheat is expected to hit a new high before the year.

Due to the impact of new corn on the market, the current corn price is at a low level during the year. However, the recovery of breeding capacity and sustained high profits have increased the acceptance of high-priced corn by feed enterprises. After the recent high-moisture corn consumption, the long-term optimistic trend of corn prices remains unchanged.