How much coal will the six major power plants consume on November 30, 2022?

According to Taiyuan Coal Trading Center, as of December 1, the coal inventory of the six major coastal power plants was 17.7537 million tons, a decrease of 258,600 tons or 1.44% compared with the same period last week; daily coal consumption The volume was 701,400 tons, an increase of 140,300 tons compared with the same period last week, an increase of 25%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 6.1456 million tons, an increase of 52.94%, and the daily consumption decreased by 0.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% compared with the same period last year.

It is reported that as the daily consumption of coastal power plants rises rapidly, some traders have a bullish mentality and choose to suspend shipments. Some traders have begun to increase their quotations by 5-10 yuan/ton, but the actual transactions are average. At present, the mainstream quotation of 5500 large Kameng coal is 620-625 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation of Shanxi coal is 625-635 yuan/ton.

However, according to data from the Yulin Coal Trading Center, Yulin coal prices have continued to fall due to lackluster sales in the past two days, and two large mines in Yuyang District have lowered their prices again. Among them, Hanglaiwan Coal Mine will reduce the price of finished coal by 15 yuan/ton on December 1, and the price of high-quality blended coal by 10 yuan/ton. Jinjitan Coal Mine will reduce the price of blended coal by 20 yuan/ton and lump coal by 10 yuan/ton.

Cui Yu'e also said that the current market supply is still relatively sufficient, coupled with the rain and snow weather, downstream procurement is not active, and the production area is still in a bearish trend.

On December 1, domestic thermal coal futures prices rebounded. As of the morning's close, the main thermal coal contract 1905 was quoted at 568.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%.

On the same day, the coal sector of the A-share market also rose slightly. Wind data shows that as of the morning's close, the CITIC Primary Coal Index rose 0.08%, among individual stocks, ST Yunwei rose 2.81%, and Kailuan Shares rose 1.21%.

Thermal coal is not prosperous in the peak season

Compared with the high thermal coal prices and tight supply of power plants last winter, the coal market this winter is not prosperous in the peak season.

In the same period last year, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port reached more than 700 yuan/ton, while the current port coal price is only about 625 yuan/ton. Futures price trends also show that from May 2017 to February 2018, domestic thermal coal futures prices continued to rise, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 679.8 yuan/ton. Since April this year, the futures price has maintained a slight consolidation trend, and has not received a price boost during the peak season.

Thermal coal is not in demand during the peak season this winter, which is directly related to the continued high level of power plant inventories.

“Although daily consumption reached more than 700,000 tons, the inventory of the six major coastal power plants on December 1 reached 17.64 million tons, which was about 50% higher than the same period last year.” Cui Yu’e said that the current inventory of power plants The number of available days is 23.8 days, compared with less than 17 days in the same period last year, which is a large gap.

According to reports, after the extreme shortage of coal for power plants at the beginning of this year, the country once increased coal production. Coal prices fell sharply from February to May, and port coal prices once fell. to about 560 yuan/ton. Since then, the National Development and Reform Commission has required power plants to actively replenish their inventories and maintain the inventory available for more than 20 days. Therefore, since August this year, the inventory of the six major power plants has remained at a high level of 15 million tons, and even reached a record high of 18 million tons. For the whole of last year, the inventory of the six major coastal power plants continued to be below 12 million tons. , the number of available days is less than 20 days. Power plants are actively replenishing their inventories, and coupled with the low daily consumption during the peak season this winter, market supply and demand have changed again, and the coal shortage has not reappeared. .

News from the Taiyuan Coal Trading Center also stated that as of December 1, the coal inventory of the six major coastal power plants was 17.7537 million tons, the daily coal consumption was 701,400 tons, and the number of available days was 25.3 days. Analysts believe that the current daily consumption of power plants is close to the level of the same period last year. As the severe cold weather continues in the future, the daily consumption of power plants is more likely to continue to rise, and the demand for replenishment is expected to increase. Since the total inventory is still at a high level, large-scale purchases are phenomenon is unlikely to occur.

The decline may continue

Can the rising daily consumption of coastal power plants lead to a recovery in the domestic coal market?

Cui Yu'e believes that unless there is a significant increase in snowfall in the near future, or extreme cold weather occurs, and coal resources are tight, it will be difficult for coal prices to rebound significantly this winter. There is currently news in the market that the weather in the south has shown signs of warming up, so there is even less support for rising coal prices. In addition, environmental protection inspections have been significantly intensified this year, which has led to an increase in production shutdowns of downstream industrial enterprises, which is also negative for industrial electricity consumption. In the short term, coal prices may rise in stages in late December or early January due to the rebound in demand and consumption. However, if coal prices fail to rise during this period, then as the Spring Festival approaches and industrial enterprises suspend production, industrial electricity consumption will decline. It is even more difficult for coal prices to continue to rise.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, my country's coal and lignite imports increased by 9.3% to 271 million tons from January to November 2018, slightly exceeding last year's total. Under the guidance of the flat control policy on imported coal, relevant state departments have notified major ports across the country verbally and at meetings that customs clearance of imported coal will basically no longer be arranged before the end of this year. Only individual power plants with urgent needs to ensure power supply in winter can apply for exemption from the National Development and Reform Commission through their subordinate group companies.

Under this situation, downstream enterprises' purchasing demand for imported coal will shift to the domestic coal market, which will support the coastal coal market to a certain extent in the short term.

At the same time, the impact of environmental protection production restrictions continues, which may once again lead to a decline in industrial coal consumption.

It is reported that the Hebei Provincial Government's steel industry policy requires that Hebei Shengbao Steel's 4.5 million tons of production capacity will be withdrawn and production will officially cease on December 7. Henan is experiencing severe or severely polluted weather processes across the province. As of November 30, 1 provincial municipality in the province has activated a red warning for heavy pollution weather, 15 provincial municipalities have activated an orange warning, and 2 provincial municipalities have activated a yellow warning. According to the heavy pollution weather warning response plan, 6,131 companies will suspend production and 12,400 companies will limit production.

News from the Taiyuan Coal Trading Center also stated that near the end of the year, some large mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia regions, the main producing areas, have completed their full-year production tasks. In the future, safety will be the main focus, and coal output will decrease month-on-month. . As low temperatures continue after mid-December, residential electricity demand will continue to increase. Stimulated by high daily consumption and restrictions on imported coal, this will be beneficial to the domestic coal market in the short term, and thermal coal prices will rise slightly. In the long term, considering that end-users are protected by Xiemei and the imported coal is supplemented in January 2019, the market's coal procurement demand may be limited, and coal prices still do not have the basis for continued rise.