Zhao Liewen, a strange man in the late Qing Dynasty, can predict that the Manchu Dynasty will perish within fifty years.

According to the existing literature, the first person who accurately predicted the demise of the Qing Dynasty was Zhao Liewen, Zeng Guofan's most valued assistant. Also in six years, he predicted that the decadent Qing Dynasty would perish within fifty years. The Qing Dynasty collapsed in 1911. It has been 44 years since Zhao Liewen made this prediction in 1867, but less than 5 years.

Zhao Liewen was born in Changshu, Jiangsu Province in 1832. He was famous for his erudition when he was young. He is knowledgeable and has made great achievements in Buddhism, Yi-ology, medicine, military affairs and economy.

in the fifth year of Xianfeng, Zhou Tenghu, a good friend, recommended Zhao Liewen to the shogunate of Zeng Guofan. At that time, Zeng Guofan was trapped in the front line of Nanchang and was completely defeated by the Taiping Army. Most of his entourage left. At first, Zeng Guofan gave up hope for the new Zhao Liewen. As an intern aide, he wants to do something, but Zeng Guofan is not in the mood to arrange any specific work for him. Instead, he was ordered to visit Xiang's amphibious camp stationed in Zhangshu Town to familiarize himself with the working environment. Unexpectedly, Miss Zhao found the problem as soon as she left. After returning to China, he reported to Zeng Guofan: "The military camp system of Zhangshuying is very relaxed and the military heart is outdated. I am afraid it is not enough. "

Zeng Guofan's most shameful scholar is "doing nothing, no one can compare, adapting to the environment, no one can do it". He thinks that Zhao Liewen belongs to this generation, so he hates Zhao Liewen's so-called perception. He is unhappy, thinking that this kitten can understand what military affairs are! Also at this time, Zhao Liewen's old mother was ill, and he might also see that Zeng Guofan had a low opinion of himself, so he might as well leave here. Therefore, Zhao Liewen bid farewell to Zeng Guofan on the grounds that his mother was ill, but Zeng Guofan did not keep a soldier running in the iron camp, and the flow of personnel was normal.

Just as he was leaving, the news that Zhou Fengshan's Xiang army was defeated in Zhangshu reached his ears. When Zeng Guofan saw that Zhao Liewen was knowledgeable, he suddenly had a new understanding of Zhao Liewen. Later, Zhao Liewen was paid more and more attention by Zeng Guofan, and they often talked about military affairs together. In the end, he talks about everything, sometimes several times a day.

Zeng Guofan was an important minister and pillar of the late Qing court. It is precisely because of his unremitting efforts and hard work with a group of people that the so-called "tongzhi" appeared in the late Qing Dynasty. At that time, few people questioned how long the dragon flag of the Qing Dynasty could last. Zeng Guofan made an in-depth study on the rise and fall of dynasties, and realized that both the ruling party and the opposition party lurked endless crises, which might lead to national subjugation. However, he believes that through some efforts, it should still be possible to keep dangerous houses out of danger.

Zhao Liewen doesn't think so. His views are deeper and sharper than Zeng Guofan's. He has written many works, such as Teacher Zhao Geng Shen's diary of avoiding chaos, diary of being able to live quietly, diary of falling flowers in a spring rain nest, diary of Geng Shen's avoiding chaos and so on. During the years of Diary of a Quiet Life, Zhao Liewen described in detail a very important conversation with Zeng Guofan. In this conversation, Zhao Liewen unexpectedly predicted that the Qing Dynasty would perish within 5 years!

On the evening of June 2th, 1867, Zeng Guofan, then governor of the two rivers, chatted anxiously with Zhao Liewen and said, "Beijingers said,' The weather in Doumen is very bad. There are infighting in the city and many beggars. "When people are poor and rich, they are afraid of change. what can I do? Zhao Liewen replied: "The security of the world has been unified for a long time, and it will be tamed until it is divided. "However, the main authority is very heavy, and the atmosphere does not open. If it wasn't a rotten heart, it wouldn't fall apart. As far as intensity is concerned, the future disaster must first be a servant, while the country in the rear is ownerless and the people are autonomous, which may not take 5 years. "That is to say, since the world has been unified for a long time, it is bound to gradually split? However, because the emperor has always been very authoritative, and the top management has not rotted first, it will not fall apart now. However, according to his estimation, the catastrophe in the future is that the court will collapse first, and then there will be a fragmented situation; He further judged that this kind of disaster would not happen until about 5 years later.

Zeng Guofan listened to his worries and thought for a long time before saying, "But when should I move south?" Zeng Guofan believes that the Qing Dynasty will not be completely overthrown, which may be the same as the dynasties in which political power moved south, north and south split, and half of the country remained unchanged.

Zhao Liewen clearly replied, "I'm afraid it may not be efficient in the Jin and Song Dynasties." He thought that the Qing government could no longer be as southern as the Eastern Jin and Southern Song Dynasties? If you keep calm, you will be completely destroyed.

Zeng Guofan retorted, "Is there any virtue in this dynasty?"

Zhao Liewen then replied: "The monarch's virtue is just. With the prosperity of the country, the news of food will not be too thick. It is too easy to start a business when the country is just starting, and it is too smart to have the best things. Heaven is hard to understand, good and evil do not cover each other, and virtue is insufficient. " In the dialogue, Zhao Liewen denied the moral legitimacy of "winning the world" in Qing Dynasty. The Ming Dynasty died in Li Zicheng, and Wu Sangui led the Qing Dynasty into the customs. It was too easy for the Qing army to start a business. After entering the customs, the Qing army "slaughtered too much" to deter its own Han people, such as "Yangzhou Ten Days" and "Jiading Three Slaughters", which determined that the rule of the Qing court lacked "legitimacy". However, after the Qing Dynasty, Kang, Gan and Jia's "Junde" was pure, but good and evil were not concealed and complemented each other. Moreover, "Heaven" brought them the "flourishing age" of literature, art and martial arts as a very generous reward, so the "orthodoxy" of these later emperors could not make up for the lack of orthodoxy when the Qing Dynasty was established, nor could they make up for the lack of legitimacy of their rule.

Zhao Liewen denied the legitimacy of his rule from the contingency and cruelty of the Qing Dynasty, which was quite politicized. For Zhao Liewen's incisive remarks, Zeng Guofan once again lost in thought and seemed to be thinking.

the river of no return, many heroes grow old. Zeng Guofan and Zhao Liewen died in 1872 and 1894 respectively. Historical accuracy? It witnessed Zhao Liewen's prediction that the exhausted Qing Dynasty finally collapsed in 1911, only 44 years after it was predicted in 1867 that it would completely collapse within 5 years. In addition, the following is Zhao Liewen's long-term prediction that "the country is ownerless and the people are independent", that is, the chaos of warlordism.

Zhao Yuan, where Zhao Liewen once lived, still exists. Located in the southwest corner of the ancient city of Changshu, Jiangsu Province, it is the former site of Qian's "Xiao Wang Chuan" in the Ming Dynasty. From Jiaqing to Daoguang-year, Wu built a foreign land garden, also known as the Water Dance Garden. During the reign of Tongzhi and Guangxu, it was purchased and built after retiring from my hometown, and it was called "Zhao Garden" or "Garden", which is one of the famous classical gardens in the south of the Yangtze River.