Modern meteorological business layout and business process oriented to the development of modern meteorological business

Establish a scientific and reasonable modern meteorological business layout and business process, take the national professional business center as the guide, and improve the accuracy of forecast and the consistency of forecast conclusions by guiding the up-and-down feedback of products and the consultation and exchange of forecast opinions; Give full play to the technical advantages of the superior station and the geographical advantages of the subordinate station, avoid duplication of work to the maximum extent, and improve the quality and efficiency of modern meteorological services (Table 2).

(A) modern meteorological business layout

Establish a professional business system, improve the establishment of national professional forecasting centers and provincial professional forecasting posts, strengthen national and provincial forecasting business and guidance capabilities, and form an intensive business layout.

1. National level

In accordance with the principle of professional development of modern meteorological services, we will strengthen the construction of national professional forecasting centers and produce and issue targeted guidance products.

Carry out global, regional and professional numerical forecasting business, carry out numerical forecasting product inspection and revision business, carry out objective guidance and forecasting business of urban meteorological elements at or above the county level based on the interpretation of numerical forecasting products, carry out weather scale and mesoscale analysis business, carry out monitoring and analysis business of disastrous weather and meteorological disasters, carry out short-term forecasting business of typhoons and severe convective weather, issue meteorological disaster warning, carry out short-,medium-and long-term weather forecasting business, carry out inspection business of various forecasting products, and organize national weather conferences.

2. Participate in the research and development of the national numerical forecasting system at the regional level, and carry out the regional numerical forecasting business suitable for the local region and climate characteristics according to the unified planning and design. Give full play to the technical advantages of the Institute of Professional Meteorology of China Meteorological Bureau, and take the lead in technical guidance, scientific research organization and technical exchange within the region.

3. Provincial level

Carry out the inspection, evaluation and model performance diagnosis of superior numerical forecast products based on local observation data, carry out the forecast business of meteorological elements in towns and other service places based on the interpretation of numerical forecast products, carry out the mesoscale weather analysis business, carry out the monitoring and joint defense business of disastrous weather and meteorological disasters, carry out the short-term approaching forecast business of disastrous weather, release the early warning information of meteorological disasters in this responsibility area, carry out the short-term and medium-term weather forecast business, carry out the inspection business of various forecast products, and organize the weather consultation and joint defense in this responsibility area.

4. At the municipal level

Combined with local observation data, we will carry out the inspection business of dominant meteorological elements and disastrous weather guidance forecast, carry out the revised forecast business based on dominant meteorological elements guidance forecast, carry out the joint defense business of disastrous weather and meteorological disaster monitoring, carry out the short-term approaching forecast business of disastrous weather, issue the meteorological disaster warning signal in our area of responsibility, carry out the short-term weather forecast business, carry out the inspection business of various forecast products, and carry out the weather consultation and joint defense business of disastrous weather.

5. County level

We will carry out disastrous weather and meteorological disaster monitoring business, carry out disastrous weather forecasting business according to the situation, focus on revising superior guidance and forecasting products, and provide good services.

(B) business process forecasting guidance

Establish a scientific and reasonable business process of forecasting guidance, strengthen forecasting guidance and correction feedback between upper and lower stations, and improve the accuracy of forecasting and the consistency of forecasting conclusions; Strengthen the coordination of different aging forecasts and promote seamless and effective convergence of forecasts.

1. Weather consultation and forecast guide the forecast process.

Meteorological offices and stations at all levels should improve the weather consultation process and strengthen the organization and management of consultation. The Central Meteorological Observatory should pay attention to the analysis and use of numerical forecast products in consultation, and pay attention to the disastrous, critical, turning and high-impact weather nationwide; Provincial meteorological stations should attach importance to the discussion of local forecasting methods, the application of forecasting indicators and the discussion of different forecasting opinions, and strengthen the discussion and exchange of forecasting opinions between higher and lower stations through consultation.

Meteorological offices and stations at all levels should pay attention to strengthening the construction of guidance and forecasting process, and the meteorological offices and stations at higher levels should release the guidance products of refined meteorological element forecast and severe weather falling area forecast on time, and the meteorological offices and stations at lower levels should timely modify and feedback the modification opinions to the meteorological offices and stations at higher levels. Through the smooth guidance of the prediction process, the consistency of the prediction conclusion is ensured and the accuracy of the prediction is improved.

2. Business coordination of different forecast products.

Strengthen the coordination of short-term climate forecast, extended period forecast, medium-term forecast, short-term forecast, short-term forecast and imminent earthquake forecast. Long-term forecasting products must consider the conclusions of short-term forecasting products, and short-term forecasting should consider the forecasting background of adjacent long-term forecasting to enhance the continuity and consistency of forecasting products.