How does central weather bureau predict the weather this winter?

It is estimated that in the winter of 2023, the intensity of cold air affecting China is generally weak, and the temperature in most parts of the country is close to the same period of the year or high, with obvious characteristics of temperature changes in stages. The former is warmer in winter and the latter is colder. The precipitation in the country is generally less.

In winter, the temperatures in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia, the northeast, most of southern China, the southeast and the central and eastern parts of northwest China are lower than normal, and the temperatures in the northeastern Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, western Shaanxi, central and eastern Gansu, northeastern Qinghai and Ningxia are lower 1 ~ 2℃.

Temperatures in other parts of the country are close to normal, and the temperatures in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, northeastern Jiangxi, Shandong, eastern Henan and northeastern Hubei are high 1 to 2℃. The stage characteristics of temperature change in winter are obvious.

Most of the precipitation in northeastern Inner Mongolia, northern Northeast China and northwestern China is higher than normal, and the precipitation in northeastern Inner Mongolia, central and northern Heilongjiang, western Shaanxi, central and eastern Gansu, northeastern Qinghai and most of Ningxia is 20% to 50% higher.

The precipitation in most other parts of the country is close to normal, and the precipitation in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, northern Fujian, northwestern Jiangxi, Shandong, eastern Henan, eastern Hubei, northeastern Hunan and most parts of Yunnan is 20% to 50% less.

Winter climate characteristics

Beginning of winter said that since then, winter has traditionally started with "beginning of winter" in 24 solar terms. In early winter, the sun reaches the longitude of 225 degrees, and the earth is at declination-16 19'. The height of the sun in the northern hemisphere becomes smaller, the daylight time becomes shorter, and the amount of solar radiation obtained in the northern hemisphere becomes less and less. However, there is still some energy in the heat stored on the surface in the second half of this year, so it is not very cold.

During the period of Meng Dong (winter solstice and light snow), when there is no wind, there is often sunny, warm and comfortable "Xiaoyangchun" weather, and there is a folk saying of "Xiaoyangchun in October".

It is generally not very cold in early winter (Meng Dong) in some parts of the south, but with the passage of time, cold air frequently goes south and the temperature gradually drops. The northern region is very cold from winter to spring, and the climate change of several solar terms in winter is not obvious. Snow is the main feature of northern winter.