Zhongxiang weather 202265438+ October weather

As the saying goes, there is no market that only falls and does not rise, and there is no market that only rises and does not fall.

In February, the pig market showed a strong shock trend, and pig farmers were about to get out of the quagmire of losses; The continuously bullish and rising price of sheep has been dubbed as "Yang Guifei". How much did it go up? Let's take a look at it later.

The most disturbing thing is corn. It has been declining since the Spring Festival, and it is still falling.

So what's the situation in the market? When will pig prices and corn usher in an inflection point? Let's understand and discuss:

0 1, the pig price rises domineering.

The price of live pigs continues to fluctuate and rise, and the price of live pigs is being charged to 8 yuan. In March 1, the live pig market continued to rise, but the "color" of the rise was insufficient, mainly in two aspects:

First, the upward momentum is still insufficient. The price of pigs in all provinces and cities in China rose from 10 on February 28th to only 1 1, and the number of provinces that fell was only reduced from 8 to 7.

Second, from the perspective of the increase, the increase has also narrowed. Only Guangdong and Jilin provinces have increased by 20 cents, and the increase in other provinces is only about 1 cent, which is almost negligible.

At present, the trend of live pigs is relatively strong and good, because it is the off-season of pork consumption, and it is gratifying that pig farmers remain unchanged.

At present, the pig price is hitting the 8 yuan mark, which is difficult to achieve overnight. At this sensitive price, the selling pressure will be great. Therefore, personally, it is difficult for the average price of live pigs to break through the 8 yuan mark in the first half of March. After a shock of 1 or 2 weeks, with the opening of tens of thousands of schools nationwide, the gradual recovery of residents' consumption and the continuous improvement of the catering industry, the price of live pigs may break through the cost line of 8.5 yuan/kg, and then gradually enter the profit model.

02, the price of sheep rose.

Speaking of the price of sheep, many sheep farmers may have felt it recently. The price of sheep has gone up, and there is finally some hope. Now there are more and more people collecting sheep everywhere, not only raising prices, but also worrying about not selling them.

It is understood that from last winter to now, the price of sheep in many places has increased by more than 1 yuan, and the increase in some places has reached 2 yuan. The mainstream quotation of fattening sheep in various places has increased from the original 13 and 14 yuan to the present 14 yuan, and in some places 15 yuan.

It is understood that the price of sheep in some areas is as follows: Linfen area, Shanxi Province, cashmere goat ram, the price is 23 yuan/kg; Shanxi Huairen 1 10 kg fattening sheep 14.8 yuan/kg; Handan, Hebei, fattening ram 130 kg body weight 17.2 yuan/kg; Han mutton kebabs in Tangxian County, Hebei Province 14.0 yuan/kg, fine-wool mutton kebabs 14.3 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep 14.6 yuan/kg;

Cotton and mutton kebabs in Jizhou District, Tianjin 17.2 yuan/kg; Jilin Shuangyang Han sheep male 100 kg body weight 18 yuan/kg; Hubei Zhongxiang Lake sheep fattening 15/ kg; Luoyang goat male 17 yuan/kg; Sanmenxia fattening sheep 13.5 yuan/kg; Anhui Huainan fattening Hu sheep 65438+ 15.5/ kg more than 000 kg; Yang Guo fattening Hu sheep 140 kg, 16.0 yuan/kg; Shandong bird's nest small-tailed Han sheep kebab 13 yuan/kg, fine-wool sheep kebab 13 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep 13.4 yuan/kg;

Zhejiang Jiaxing fattening Hu sheep 16.8 yuan/kg; Shaanxi Tongguan fattening mutton sheep 12 yuan, female sliver 13 yuan; Female sheep 1 1.5- 12 yuan/kg and male sheep 13.5- 14.5 yuan/kg were eliminated in Sanying Market, Guyuan, Ningxia.

Judging from the quotations from various places, the price of sheep has risen for the following reasons:

First, during the special period of three years, many farmers were blocked from going out to work and joined the sheep industry. Sheep prices fall again and again, and many people can't hold on. After leaving the sheep market, the stock of sheep decreased.

Secondly, from the sheep cycle, the number of sheep raised has been rising continuously since 20 18, reaching a high point in 202 1 year, and the price will drop to a low point in 2022. In 2023, the market will probably enter an upward cycle.

Third, the recent rise in the prices of live pigs and pork, coupled with the high cost of breeding, has also supported the price of sheep.

On the whole, the price trend of sheep is good, but you should not expect to rise too much in the short term, because consumption is still in the off-season and excess capacity has not been digested. The market in the second half is worth looking forward to.

03. The corn ended badly.

With the recent warmer weather, it is becoming more and more difficult to store corn. With the increase of cars arriving at the front door of corn processing enterprises, the corn market in various places has been in a continuous downturn recently, and various enterprises have lowered their purchase prices.

On February 28th, Shandong 15 enterprises were downgraded: Zouping Ronghai fell by 0.2 point, 1.458 yuan/kg; Huimin Chunhui fell 0.3 points, 1.437 yuan/kg; Binzhou Jin Hui fell 0.4 points, 1.425 yuan/kg; Pingyuan Fuyang fell by 0.55 rounds, 1.405 yuan/kg; Yucheng Baolingbao fell 0.3 points, 1.407 yuan/kg; Feicheng Fukuan fell 0.2 points, 1.42 yuan/kg; Northeast Jixiang fell 0.5 points, 1.427 yuan/kg;

Changle Shengtai fell 0.5 points, 1.45438+0 yuan/kg; Chengwu fell by 0.2 points, 1.433 yuan/kg; Osawa adults fell 0.2 points, 1.435 yuan/kg; Rizhao Jinhe Yuan Bo fell 0.5 points, 1.465 yuan/kg; Linqing gold corn fell 0.3 points, 1.387 yuan/kg; Zaozhuang Hengren Industry and Trade fell 0.5 point, 1.435 yuan/kg; Yishui land fell by 0.2 points, 1.443 yuan/kg; Yishui Luzhou fell 0.5 point, 1.445 yuan/kg.

Guangyu Starch in Xingtai, Hebei Province fell 0.5 point to 1.405 yuan/kg.

Three other companies raised the purchase price: Shijiazhuang Derui starch rose by 0.5 point, 1.405 yuan/kg; Tian Fei starch in Hebi, Henan increased by 0.5 point, 1.423 yuan/kg; Jilin fuel ethanol rose 1 point, 1.375 yuan/kg.

At present, the weak adjustment of corn will continue in the short term, mainly because:

First, the weather is getting warmer and warmer. The highest temperature in most parts of Northeast China has reached above 0 degrees, and the amount of corn has increased, and the amount of corn on the market has increased.

Second, influenced by the fact that traders didn't make much money or even lose money in buying corn in 2022, many middlemen have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and feel that there is not much room for profit at present, and they are still waiting for further decline before going to the bottom.

Third, there are rumors in the market that rice was targeted for sale in March180,000 tons. If the rumor is true, it will also have a certain impact on the corn market.

Generally speaking, March is an important time node for corn to get out of the haze after corn shock. It is hoped that under the influence of many factors, such as the bottoming out of corn sales, the expansion of state reserve acquisition and the rebound of pig prices, there will be an inflection point of rebounding and rising after bottoming out.