What is the signal that the central bank releases reserves? What is the impact on the stock market?

There must be a chance in the stock market, but you are not advised to follow the news. It is best to make a fixed investment step by step. To survive the cold winter, the profit must be considerable. It is generally expected that the market will recover after March. But pay attention to trade negotiations and the Fed's interest rate hike. The central bank's deposit reserve ratio, in fact, the recent market momentum is also very obvious, because the deposit reserve ratio increases the credit supply, but does not increase the base currency. The way is for banks and other financial systems to increase the debt ratio, but now the debt ratio of the financial system is not low, so funds must be a key part of saving lives and saving the economy.

What really benefits the economy must be to improve the profitability of enterprises in the real economy, such as tax reduction. I don't like to call it a tax cut. I am used to thinking that this is the government transferring some resources to the market and increasing market liquidity. Therefore, tax cuts are accompanied by a reduction in government investment. A penny always comes from a source and will not fall out of thin air. The stock market must be an opportunity. In addition, the stock market opportunity should not be in the first quarter. The weather is too cold for investors to be enthusiastic, but value investment needs a moment that others can't avoid. Time-sharing diversification.

In fact, the impact on the property market is the same. My understanding is that the property market itself has a demand cycle, rather than the lack of liquidity leading to a downturn in the property market. In addition, the RRR cut released 800 billion yuan of funds, mainly used to increase loans to small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and other real economies, rather than flowing into the real estate industry. The central bank said that this arrangement can basically hedge the liquidity fluctuation brought by cash before the Spring Festival this year, which is conducive to financial institutions to continue to increase their support for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises. On the first trading day after New Year's Day, A-shares plunged, and the reverse repurchase rate of exchange government bonds soared, highlighting the tight liquidity. Today, the stock market rose 2% against the trend, and US stocks plunged 3% last night. After the news of RRR's interest rate cut came out at night, we suddenly realized that some people knew the original benefits in advance and went into the market to do more, which led to the stock market rebounding against the trend.

This also makes many investors excited and looks forward to the early arrival of the settlement day. However, the data shows that the rising probability after RRR cut is less than half. The reduction of the deposit reserve ratio does not affect the stock market. It is bank stocks that are really conducive to the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio; Historically, every time the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio, most of them rose and fell, and then fluctuated all the way down. Judging from the downward adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio in history, the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to fall in the end. Therefore, few funds release liquidity and really enter the stock market, which will not affect the stock market. Finally, analyze the impact of lowering the deposit reserve ratio on the real estate market? In fact, frankly speaking, it has no impact on the real estate market; If the interest rate cut is of great benefit to the real estate market, it can only reduce the deposit reserve ratio, but the funds released by reducing the deposit reserve ratio are not used to support the real estate market, but to support the real economy, so it has no impact on the real estate market.