What is the reason for the sharp rise of soybean oil price in March 2008?

Since the beginning of this year, with the rise of global agricultural products prices, the price of edible oil in the international market has also shown an upward trend. Futures prices such as soybean oil and rapeseed have continuously hit new highs, and wholesale and retail prices have followed suit. Many food and oil exporting countries have shared the dividends brought about by the rise, but at the same time, there are hidden concerns that high prices in their own markets will lead to inflation.

1. The price of the international futures market remains high, hitting record highs, and the price is at a historical high recently.

Since the beginning of this year, the internationally influential edible oil futures indexes such as bean futures of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), rapeseed futures of Winnipeg Commodity Futures Exchange (WCE) and crude palm oil futures of Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) have all shown a sharp upward trend.

Soybean is the basic product of edible oil and the most important futures variety. Rapeseed oil and palm oil are regarded as substitutes in the international market. Therefore, take CBOT soybean market as an example to illustrate the price trend. 65438 10/opened on October 3rd to July 3rd 18, opening at 700.7, the highest was 948.3, the lowest was 67 1.3, and closing at 948. 1, up by 257.6 (all cents/bushel). Its trend has gone through three stages. The first stage is from the lowest point of CBOT soybean index of 65438+ 10/month, 67 10.3 cents/bushel (1 bushel soybean = 27. 100 kg) to the highest point of 8/kloc on February 22nd. The main hype factor is a survey report thrown by Pro Farmer in the United States, which shows that the soybean planting area in the new season in the United States may be greatly reduced by 8.6 million to 9.4 million mu. The second stage: from the lowest point of 732.2 cents/bushel on April 24th to the highest point of 882.4 cents/bushel on June18th, with the highest range of 150.2 cents/bushel. The main influencing factor in this stage is the weather. The weather soared over 100 cents/bushel. The third stage: from the lowest point of 8 17.4 cents/bushel on June 22nd to the highest point of 948.3 cents/bushel on July 22nd, with the maximum amplitude of 130.9 cents/bushel. Futures prices hit a three-year high. This is mainly because the US Department of Agriculture released a report on June 29th that surprised all market participants, that is, it is estimated that the soybean planting area in the United States will be 6408 1 000 mu in 2007, which is 3,059,000 mu less than that in March, and far below the average of 67,838,000 mu generally predicted by the market (the forecast range is 66-69 million mu). On the same day, CBOT soybean contract once opened with daily limit.

After three stages of hype-market-planting area-weather conditions-planting area, CBOT soybean rose by nearly 260 cents/bushel. It is worth noting that in the past, CBOT soybeans were in the cycle mode of rising-increasing planting area-decreasing planting area-rising again, but now there is a vicious cycle mode of rising-decreasing planting area-rising again-decreasing planting area.

In July, the monthly supply and demand report issued by the US Department of Agriculture predicted that the global soybean output in 2007-2008 would reach 222,654.38+tons, which was lower than the 225.3 million tons predicted in June and 236,654.38+tons in 2006. In fact, except Brazil, the soybean output of several other major soybean producing countries in the world has declined to varying degrees, among which the soybean output of the United States has been lowered to 710.4 million tons (74.7 million tons in June and 86.8 million tons in 2006). Argentina's soybean production is expected to be 47 million tons (47.2 million tons in 2006-2007). The soybean output in China is expected to be15.6 million tons, which is also lower than16.2 million tons in 2006-2007. However, the soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 6 1 10,000 tons, which is the same as the estimated value in June and higher than the 59 million tons in 2006-2007.

From the demand side, the global soybean consumption has been slightly reduced to 234.2 million tons (it was predicted to be 234.3 million tons in June and 225.2 million tons in 2006). The global soybean export is expected to be 75.5 million tons, which is the same as that predicted in June, and 70.5 million tons in 2006, of which Argentina's soybean export is expected to increase to102 million tons (8.6 million tons predicted in June and 8 million tons predicted in 2006) and Brazil's soybean export is expected to be 29.7 million tons (29.7 million tons predicted in June and 24.6 million predicted in 2006). The United States expects 27.8 million tons (29.4 million tons in June and 29.7 million tons in 2006). This will also reduce the global soybean ending inventory to 5 1.87 million tons at the end of September 2008 (it was predicted to be 54 million tons in June and 641.70 million tons in 2006).

On the whole, the report confirms the market's recent concern about the tight global soybean supply next year, which also makes the market extremely sensitive to any factors that may lead to the reduction of soybean production in the United States or the reduction of soybean planting area in South America. According to the latest weather forecast, there may be high temperature and dry weather in the corn planting belt in the western United States, and the end of July and August are the key pod setting and filling stages of American soybeans. Hot and dry weather will lead to the loss of soybean yield potential. In addition to the weather, the increase in soybean prices in the United States is also to encourage Brazilian farmers to increase their planting area. It is generally expected that the planting area of new soybeans in Brazil will increase by more than 5 percentage points compared with 2006. However, judging from the continuous strengthening of the real exchange rate, this is obviously not conducive to the increase of Brazilian soybean planting income, because Brazilian soybeans are mainly used for export, so the weaker the US dollar relative to the real, the less income farmers get back. At present, the exchange rate of the real is at the highest point in recent seven years. 1 can be exchanged for 0.53 USD, and it may reach 1 USD/0.8 USD before the end of the year. Therefore, before the start of the soybean planting season in South America (that is, in the next three to four months), the Chicago soybean futures price is likely to remain high, especially if there is hot and dry weather in the midwest of the United States, so as to encourage South American farmers to increase the soybean planting area as much as possible and make up for the global supply gap caused by the decline in soybean production in the United States.

The prices of WCE rapeseed futures in Canada and BMD crude palm oil futures in Malaysia are basically the same as CBOT. Since 2006, Malaysian crude oil and palm oil futures prices have soared by nearly 80%, and spot prices have reached the highest level in eight years.

2. Three factors support the rise of international palm oil prices.

Since July, the international palm oil market has risen sharply. The FOB price of 24-degree palm oil in recent months was $797.5 per ton (the same below), up $22.5 from the previous week. The FOB price of 33-degree palm oil was $792.5, up $22.5; Palm oil at 44 degrees was $770, up 10.

The main supporting factors for the rise of the international palm oil market are as follows: First, the CBOT soybean market has risen sharply. The U.S. Department of Agriculture sharply lowered the data of soybean planting area in the United States in 2007, which led to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean market and played a supporting role in BMD palm oil. Second, the recent sharp rise in the NYMEX York Mercantile Exchange crude oil has improved the demand prospect of palm oil in the biofuel industry and attracted more speculative funds. The Malaysian government plans to require biodiesel to be mixed with traditional fuels before 2008, and intends to provide subsidies to ensure the success of biofuel projects, which also supports the BMD palm oil market. Thirdly, Indonesia has raised the export base price of palm oil and increased the export competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil. The Indonesian government raised the benchmark export price of crude palm oil from $622 to $676 per ton. The benchmark export price of 24-degree palm oil was raised from 676 US dollars to 746 US dollars; The benchmark export price of 33-degree palm oil was raised from 652 dollars to 737 dollars. Indonesia's upward adjustment of palm oil export price is beneficial to Malaysia's palm oil export and also to BMD palm oil market.

3. The global rapeseed supply tends to be tight, and the overall price trend keeps rising.

According to the report of German Petroleum World, the global consumption of 10 major oil crops in 2006/07 is expected to reach 396 million tons, which is higher than the output of 392 million tons in the same period. In 2007, the global rapeseed output was estimated to be 5,654,380+600,000 tons, higher than the previous year's 47.2 million tons. Among them, the EU rapeseed output is expected to reach 6.5438+0.78 million tons, compared with 6.5438+0.665438+10,000 tons in the previous year; It is estimated that the output of China is 1 1 10,000 tons, which is lower than the previous year. Canada's output is expected to increase to 9.8 million tons, compared with 8.5 million tons last year; It is estimated that Australia's output will increase to 6.5438+0.4 million tons, compared with 5.65438+0.4 million tons in the previous year. However, it still can't meet the growth of demand. The global consumption of rapeseed has greatly increased, estimated at 52.2 million tons, compared with 496.5438+10,000 tons last year. The rapeseed processing capacity is estimated to be 49 million tons, compared with 466.5438+10,000 tons in the previous year. Judging from the ending inventory, it is expected to be 4.7 million tons this year, 5.3 million tons last year, and the inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 9.0%, which was 65,438+00.9% last year. It can be seen that the global rapeseed supply tends to be tight this year, and the overall price trend continues to rise.

There are many reasons for the shortage of supply and demand, one of which is the speculation of biodiesel in the market. Therefore, the demand for vegetable oil, soybean oil and palm oil is expected to increase substantially, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are tight. This was evident in the market reaction at the end of last year. In Germany, with the decrease of energy price, the price of vegetable oil is relatively firm, and the energy tax of 9 cents per liter implemented in August 2006 leads to the decrease of biodiesel production profit, the decrease of biodiesel consumption, and the price of rapeseed oil and rapeseed has temporarily dropped. Since the beginning of this year, due to the sharp rise in the prices of soybean oil, vegetable oil and palm oil, such a high cost has lost its significance as a raw material for biodiesel. However, there are new forecasts to increase the production capacity of biodiesel, which will undoubtedly bring a depressing atmosphere to the supply of rapeseed and provide a basis for its high price.

4. The rising price of edible oil in neighboring countries has brought about tight supply and increased inflationary pressure.

Palm oil is the main edible oil for Indonesians, but due to the soaring price of palm oil as edible oil and biofuel, many Indonesians have to cook without oil because they can't afford it. Many poor Indonesians are forced to eat boiled food instead of fried food.

As one of the largest palm oil producers in the world, Indonesia will benefit from the rising oil price, but the domestic edible oil price has also increased by one third, which is unbearable for tens of millions of ordinary Indonesians in Qian Qian. In addition, the rising price of edible oil also makes economic policy makers worry about the impact on inflation. The price of unprocessed food, including edible oil, rose by more than 10% in June this year compared with the same period of last year, which is the biggest increase among the basket of goods and services that constitute the consumer price index.

India is a major importer of vegetable oil, and half of the annual demand for edible oil is met by imports. India's dependence on imported vegetable oil has also increased due to the expected decrease in oil seed production this year. The increase in edible oil prices in India is due to the decrease in local oilseed production, and the international palm oil price has hit a new high for several years, which has also brought obvious support.

The price of vegetable oil in India has continued to strengthen recently, which has brought about a sustained high domestic inflation index. By the end of March, India's wholesale price index had increased by 6.39% compared with a year ago. In order to control inflationary pressure, the Indian government has reduced the import tariff on crude palm oil from 70% to 60% and refined palm oil from 80% to 67.5%. In contrast, the import tariff on soybean oil remains at 45%. Since the basic price used to calculate the tariff is still maintained at the level of July 2006, this will help reduce the import cost of these edible oils and contribute to the import growth.

Generally speaking, the price of food oil abroad is still rising. In addition to the reduction of planting area and weather factors, the continued depreciation of the US dollar, the threat of global inflation and the investment funds making waves in the futures market are also important factors. It is estimated that the CBOT soybean market is likely to reach 1065 cents/bushel or116 cents/bushel.