Analyze the impact of economic recovery, natural disasters, dollar depreciation and rising prices on enterprises in China.

There are several reasons for the current price increase:

First of all, there is currency overshoot, which is a common problem all over the world. Especially after the recent implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, the prices of most commodities in the international market have risen sharply these days, with oil reaching $87 and cotton and sugar rising sharply.

Secondly, there are some temporary factors. For example, the increase in vegetable prices this year is caused by this year's disastrous weather.

Third, in the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, labor, capital and land resources flow to cities rapidly, while the production resources in rural areas are relatively reduced. Labor costs in rural areas have also increased this year. For example, the reward for picking cotton in Xinjiang is now calculated by kilogram, and you will be given 3 yuan for picking one kilogram of lint.

Fourth, the factors of hot money speculation. In the first half of this year, the prices of mung beans, garlic and cotton rose. All rose, cotton rose to 33 thousand per ton, which is the speculation of funds inside. Zhengzhou Stock Exchange1October 8 165438, the daily turnover of cotton futures was over 30 billion, which was far beyond the normal range and the turnover rate was very high. In the first half of the year, mung beans and garlic also appeared hoarding and malicious speculation enterprises. All in all, these four reasons have led to excessive price increases this year.

Food has become the first driving force of price increase.

In June, the price increase of 5438+ 10 reached a new high in 25 months. Among the new price increase factors, the food price increase 10. 1% contributed 74% to the CPI increase. For a time, the price increase of agricultural products (20.53, 0. 18, 0.88%) caused heated discussion again.

"Rigid price increase" of agricultural materials pushes food prices "up"

Affected by the rising prices of petroleum, coal and other resource products, in recent years, the prices of agricultural materials such as fertilizers and pesticides have generally shown an upward trend. Moreover, due to the long-term existence of "energy shortage", it is difficult to reduce the cost of agricultural materials.

In Jiyang County, Shandong Province, farmer Zheng Qinghe made a detailed account for the reporter. The input of one mu of wheat production materials reaches about 450 yuan: the cost of harvesting seeds by agricultural machinery is nearly 100 yuan; Watering wheat three times a season is about 60 yuan; Chemical fertilizer around 220 yuan; Pesticide 60 yuan or so; Seed about 10 yuan. According to the wheat yield of 400 kilograms per mu and the current grain price, the cost of agricultural materials offset about 56% of the gross income.

"Compared with the increase in fertilizer prices, the price increase of grain is not large now." Wang Jingshan, a large grain grower in Juye County, Shandong Province, rented 200 mu of land. He said that at present, it seems that it is impossible to greatly increase grain output in the short term, and the output is mainly supported by chemical fertilizers. In recent years, the prices of most agricultural materials have doubled, but the income from growing grain has repeatedly hovered on the edge of loss.

In the field of agricultural products such as vegetables and fruits, there is also a phenomenon of high agricultural cost. Jin, an old vegetable farmer in Shangqiu City, Henan Province, said that the price of chemical fertilizers and pesticides has increased year by year, and now the cost of growing vegetables is much higher than before. The price of a pack of 50 kg compound fertilizer is above 180 yuan, and it is more expensive in spring fertilization season. Jin planted/kloc-0.5 mu of eggplant and 6 mu of watermelon this year, and most of the investment was spent on agricultural materials.

"In the past ten years, the prices of many industrial products have doubled, but the prices of wheat and corn have only increased by about 40%. Is this too much? " Many farmers told reporters that there is still a big "scissors gap" between workers and peasants' products.

Many people attribute the price increase of agricultural products to natural disasters, processing links, monetary policy and artificial speculation, but from the actual situation, these are only "structural, phased and seasonal factors", which is difficult to explain the characteristics of the continuous price increase of agricultural products.

Zheng Fengtian, deputy dean of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development of China Renmin University, and other experts said that in the long run, the rising production costs such as the rising prices of agricultural materials are the trend reasons for the rising prices of agricultural products.

Urban migrant workers "raise wages" and "raise" farming costs

In recent years, with a large number of young and middle-aged laborers flowing into cities and towns, there has also been a phenomenon of "labor shortage" in the agricultural field in some places, which has led to a rapid increase in rural labor prices.

In Jinling Village, Shimen Town, Linshu County, Shandong Province, Li Jingmei, a 66-year-old farmer, said that it takes about 20 laborers to sow, manage, harvest, store and sell an acre of wheat. It turns out that rural laborers go out to work less, and they all farm by themselves, "working by themselves", and labor costs are ignored. In recent years, the income of migrant farmers has increased significantly, which has led to a rapid increase in agricultural labor costs.

In Shixia Town, Pingxiang City, Guangxi Province, farmer Su Duanrong planted more than 65,438,000 mu of sugarcane. Recently, the shortage of labor when cutting sugarcane made him worry: "The harvesting of sugarcane in mountainous areas can't be mechanized, and it depends entirely on manpower, but there is still no local people to do the work of 60 yuan a day."

The rapid rise in labor costs has pushed up the prices of agricultural products. Take the rise in sugar prices as an example. Recently, the price department of Guangxi issued a notice to raise the down payment price of ordinary sugarcane from ∕ ton 260 yuan to ∕ ton 350 yuan. Many sugar factory directors told reporters that in recent years, the labor force in sugarcane areas is relatively scarce, and enterprises have to increase the cost of employing people.

Nong Guang, chairman of Guangxi Sugar Industry Association, analyzed that the sharp rise in sugar prices was related to the drought, which led to the reduction of sugarcane production and hot money speculation. "However, the large reduction of rural labor force and the rising cost are important reasons for the continuous rise of sugar prices in recent years."

Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the Price Department of the Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that in the process of China's industrialization and urbanization, labor, capital and land resources are rapidly flowing to cities, while rural production resources are relatively reduced, and rural labor costs have also increased this year. For example, the reward for picking cotton in Xinjiang is now calculated by kilogram, and it costs 3 yuan to pick a kilogram of lint.

After the international financial crisis, due to the "shortage of migrant workers" in some places, the wages of migrant workers generally rose by one to two times, "which will push up the comparative cost of grain production". Bao Yongjiang, president of China Suburban Economic Research Association, believes that with the further recovery of China's economy, the cost of agricultural labor will further increase, and the prices of agricultural products, especially vegetables and other labor-intensive products will inevitably be higher.

"High" urban land price transmits "cattle" agricultural land.

The reporter's investigation found that with the rapid rise of urban land price, suburban land price was stimulated and further transmitted to agricultural land price. In addition, some leading agricultural processing enterprises and large growers rented land on a large scale, which also raised the price of rural land to a certain extent, thus raising the production cost and price of agricultural products.

"Now the rental price of farmland is so high that I didn't even think about it before." Wang Jiafu, a farmer from Yucheng County, Henan Province, rented 6 mu of responsibility farmland this autumn, with an annual income of 1 10,000 yuan per mu. The other party rented the seeds of a medicinal material. He said that in recent years, the central government has emphasized the development of modern agriculture, and more and more local people have rented land to grow high-efficiency crops such as peony, watermelon and tomato on a large scale, which has raised rents.

Su Duanrong, a big sugar cane planter, also felt the pressure brought by rising land prices. Two years ago, he rented an acre of dry land to grow sugar cane, and only spent 200 yuan and 30 yuan on the sloping land. This year, the land lease price has doubled.

"With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the potential value of agricultural land has become increasingly prominent." Zheng Fengtian said that the income gap between agriculture and other industries has reached an alarming level in the same unit of land area. "In the vicinity of the Fourth Ring Road in Beijing, commercial housing was built and wheat was planted on an acre of land, with a yield difference of more than 300,000 times."

Price increase reflects "value return"

Zhou Wangjun said frankly that some price increase trends are long-term. For example, due to the increase of land and labor costs, the price of agricultural products will be a long-term upward trend.

"The new round of price increase of agricultural products reflects the rational return of the value of agricultural products to a certain extent." Qin, director of the Institute of Rural Economics of Shandong Academy of Social Sciences, said that the cost of growing grain in China has remained high for a long time, but the price of grain has remained at a low level for a long time.

"The rise in food prices has become the' first pusher' of prices, and there are also statistical factors." Relevant experts admit that in the current CPI statistical structure, the proportion of food prices accounts for about one third. "Such a large proportion still has the characteristics of the shortage economy period, which is incompatible with the development reality that the proportion of food in household expenditure has dropped significantly."

"Overall, rising food prices are conducive to increasing farmers' agricultural income and protecting farmers' enthusiasm for agricultural production; But it will also affect the living standards of urban and rural poor groups. Qin and other experts believe that the government should improve the housing price control policy, make clear the different situations such as speculative rise and trend rise, and regulate them in different categories. On the other hand, institutional measures should be taken to improve the structure of price statistics; At the same time, we will improve the policy of linking food price increases with subsidies for poor households to ensure that the living standards of urban and rural residents do not decline.