A violent explosion occurred again in Kiev, and Russia and Ukraine launched a winter "UAV confrontation"?

Violent explosions and air raid sirens once again resounded through Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. On February 4, 65438, from 6: 00 am to 9: 00 am local time, many buildings in Shevchenkovsky district of Kiev's central and western industrial zone were attacked and destroyed. The Ukrainian military then said that it shot down 13 Russian drones near Kiev that morning.

Since June+10 in 5438, drone strikes have gradually become a "conventional way" for Russian troops to attack the Ukrainian capital. According to Uzbekistan, these drones were launched from the Azov Sea and arrived in Kiev through the eastern territory of Ukraine, with the main target of urban infrastructure.

Since the explosion of the Crimean Bridge in June+10, 5438, the Russian army has launched six large-scale air strikes on the energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine. 12 12, after the latest attack, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a telephone conversation with US President Biden that the attack had destroyed 50% of Ukraine's energy facilities.

However, unlike the "one-sided" situation in the air when the Russian army started "special military operations" in February this year, the Ukrainian army's attack on Russian drones has also escalated. On February 5, 65438, explosions were heard from two Russian air bases about 300 kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border, one of which was Russia's largest strategic bomber base. This is the first time in ten months that the war has spread to the hinterland of Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukrainian troops used Soviet-era jet drones to plan the two attacks.

165438+1On October 25th, Ukrainian soldiers tested drones in Bakhmut, Ukraine. Figure/澎湃 image

In the context of the stalemate in the Russian-Ukrainian frontline war, frequent drone attacks mean that "the situation is likely to get worse." On the evening of February 13, Koltunov, Director-General of the Russian International Affairs Committee, told China Newsweek that Ukraine will continue to expand the geographical scope of the conflict by cracking down on the goal of going deep into Russian territory; Russia will continue to attack the infrastructure of Ukraine.

"Both sides are unlikely to give in. The only thing we can expect is that there may be some undisclosed' agreements' to avoid damage to hydropower stations or nuclear power plants. But I don't think we can see the conflict downgraded in the near future. "

From "Scout" to "Suicide Missile"

Kiev was first attacked by a large-scale drone in June 65438 +654381October+July. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that in the morning, 28 Russian drones loaded warheads and flew to Kiev. Ukrainian air defense fire intercepted most of these "suicide missiles", but many buildings were still hit in the center of Kiev, and at least three civilians were killed in the attack.

In the "all-out war" since February this year, Russian and Ukrainian drones were not absent from the beginning, but their initial functions were mainly reconnaissance and auxiliary attacks. At that time, large bombers and missile units undertook the long-range strike mission of the Russian army, and the Russian army's own institutional problems also limited the use of drones.

In the ninth issue of this year, the military theory journal "Selected Works of Military Affairs" sponsored by the Russian Ministry of National Defense published a paper written by two retired officers, pointing out that the fire support action on the battlefield in Ukraine has been extended to the three-dimensional space of land, air and space, but there is a lack of cooperation between the various arms and services of the Russian army, and even "after several months of fighting, the deep cooperation among drones, artillery and motorcycle infantry has not been realized."

On the other hand, the Ukrainian Air Force began to send drones to try to carry out long-range attacks in March, but the early attempts were intercepted by Russian air defense fire, or deviated from the target due to navigation reasons, and even old drones turned to fly over the airspace of European allies and fell in Croatia.

This large reconnaissance UAV Tu-14 1 belongs to the first generation reconnaissance UAV in the world technically, and served in the Soviet Air Force in the 1970s and 1980s. After the Donbass War broke out in 20 14, the Ukrainian Air Force put Tu-14, which had been retired in the warehouse, back into use in order to enhance its air strike capability. Tu-14 1 has a range of 1000 km, but compared with the new attack UAV imported from Turkey by the Ukrainian army, it has low flying altitude, small bomb load and poor operational accuracy, and is not favored by military analysts.

However, with the changes in the war situation, drones have gradually become the "protagonists" on the battlefield. The Ukrainian army that started a large-scale counterattack needs effective air strike force, and drones are the only choice. Since July, the Ukrainian army has repeatedly tried to use modified commercial drones to carry ammunition, attack Russian targets such as the Crimean Peninsula, and once flew to the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. Although these attacks failed to have a substantial impact, the Ukrainian army has accumulated experience in unmanned long-range attacks.

On February 5th, 65438, the Ukrainian army used Tu-14 1 to accurately attack two inland air bases of the Russian army, which shows that these old equipments have been further upgraded. In the future, the Ukrainian army may continue to attack Russian frontline positions, the Crimean Peninsula and the Russian-Ukrainian border areas with hidden but short-range commercial drones, and at the same time retaliate against Russian local targets with Tu-14 1 "A Thousand Miles Attack".

The Soviet Union has built more than 40 maps-14 1, but how many maps-14 1 are still being deployed by the Ukrainian army is still a mystery. Of the two Russian military bases attacked this time, only 14 Tu- 160 of engers base, together with the Russian navy's ballistic missile nuclear submarine, constitutes Russia's most deterrent strategic nuclear force. Dyagilev Air Force Base is the only Il -78 tanker base of Russian army. Any damage caused by Ukrainian drones may be a "small fight" victory.

Some former Russian Air Force officers pointed out to the media that if the Ukrainian army continues to use drones to attack inland bases, even the precious Il -78 tanker will be destroyed, "the impact will be greater than the strategic bomber." The officer also said that one of the main problems faced by the Russian Air Force is that many aircraft are not stored in hangars and are easy to become targets of drones.

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Who has the upper hand in drone air strikes?

Compared with the Ukrainian army, the Russian army used drones to carry out important air strikes later. Until the middle of June of 5438+ 10, Russia's attacks on infrastructure in Kiev and Ukraine were still carried out in the form of large-scale missile attacks. On June 5438+/KOOC-0/October/KOOC-0//KOOC-0/day, Russian troops fired 75 missiles at Kiev, of which 4/KOOC-0/were intercepted by Uzbekistan. The Supreme Command of Ukraine believes that the Russian army has launched "thousands of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles" in the past ten months.

But problems have also arisen. "At first, Russia thought that the' special military action' would end soon, but didn't realize the amazing resilience of the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian society," Koltunov said. "Now, people are beginning to think about how to adjust their decisions and effectively deal with this long-term war."

This includes adjusting the supply and use of weapons. Since September, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made many new decisions in this regard, reorganized the military industrial complex and legislated to ensure the production and upstream and downstream supply of military enterprises. But by February 9, 65438, Putin still admitted to reporters that the armament problem was "far from being completely solved" and he discussed the supply of troops almost every day.

In this context, the Ukrainian army believes that the Russian army adjusted its air strikes to cope with the reality of insufficient inventory and production capacity of cruise missiles. It is undeniable that the unit price of missiles put into use by the Russian army on the battlefield in Ukraine is several million dollars each, while the data disclosed by western think tanks show that the cost of attack drones used by the Russian army is only about 30,000 dollars each.

At present, the total number of drones that the Russian army can put into the battlefield is also a mystery. The Russian government has repeatedly stated that the main drone used by the Russian army is the domestic product Geran-2. Ukrainian and western governments believe that these drones are actually Shahd-136 imported from Iran, or at least the design and performance parameters are consistent. According to Ukrainian intelligence agencies, the Russian army has more than 2,400 drones of this type.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan165438+1October 5 said that there were indeed Iranian-made drones on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. These drones were delivered before the Russian army launched a "special military operation" in February this year. After that, Iran did not sell more drones to any party.

Who has the upper hand against Russian-Ukrainian drones? Judging from the number of attacks, the Russian army is more active. In addition to the attack on Kiev in June, 5438+February, 65438+February, 2004, Russian troops in the southern battlefield have launched drone attacks on Ukrainian towns such as Odessa and Hellson for several days, reaching more than ten times a day. During the attacks on 12 and 10, Uzbekistan claimed that 10 Russian drones were intercepted, and the rest completed the attack mission, resulting in "damage to key infrastructure" in Odessa. The American think tank "War Research Institute" predicts that while the Ukrainian army improves the old-fashioned drones, the Russian army is also transforming drones for the winter war.

However, compared with the Russian military's previous large-scale air strikes and missile attacks, the Russian military's drone attacks on Kiev were intercepted in a high proportion, resulting in very limited losses. On June+10/October 1 1 day, 65438, a large-scale missile attack by Russian troops on Kiev once caused Kiev to stop water, power and subway, resulting in 14 deaths and 97 injuries. In June 65438 +654381October+July, Russian drones attacked Kiev, killing three people and destroying no important facilities.

12 14 the latest Russian drone air strike on Kiev caused partial damage to several administrative buildings and residential buildings, causing no casualties or hitting key targets. Obviously, if the purpose of Russian air strikes is to destroy Ukraine's infrastructure on a large scale or exert greater pressure on Ukrainian society, the drone attack has not completed the task, and the long-range sneak attack of Ukrainian drones is more likely to achieve "small fights."

However, whether the Ukrainian army can further gain the advantage of drone confrontation depends on whether the western military assistance can be upgraded. On February 6th, the State Council spokesman Price reiterated that all the weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine since February were "for self-defense, sovereignty and independence". "We have not provided Ukraine with weapons used in Russia. We are very clear that aid is a defensive material. " This is also considered to be one of the reasons why the Ukrainian army reformed the use of weapons of the former Soviet Union.

On February 9, 65438, The Times quoted Pentagon officials as saying that the U.S. Department of Defense was changing its assessment of the Russian-Ukrainian war situation, acquiesced in Ukraine's attack on Russian targets, and believed that this would not trigger a "nuclear reaction." However, it is not clear whether this "acquiescence" means that the United States and western countries will further help Ukraine upgrade its air and long-range strike forces. The report only revealed that the United States is now "more likely" to provide long-range weapons to the Ukrainian army.

"Weapons based on new physical principles"

UAV confrontation is only part of the "circular escalation" of the Russian-Ukrainian war situation. Since 1 1 June, Russian troops have been in a new stalemate. In the main battlefield of Donbass, the two sides still fought fiercely around the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk. Until February 7, 65438, the tug-of-war here had lasted for half a year. On other fronts, the Ukrainian army has repeatedly tried to counterattack from the north side of Zapolo, and there has been no obvious progress. With the consumption of about 10 months, it seems that both sides are unable to launch a "decisive battle in winter".

However, the expectations of some Russians and Ukrainians that "peace will be deadlocked" have not been realized. On the contrary, the two sides escalated the confrontation through air strikes and asymmetric counterattacks. In addition to using drones to attack Russian targets, the Ukrainian military has recently increased its attacks on Russian targets on the Russian-Ukrainian border and used Western aid firepower to strengthen the bombing of Russian-controlled areas in Donbass. According to Russian data, by June 65438+February 65438+February, more than 4000 civilians in Russian-occupied Donetsk had been killed by Ukrainian shelling.

On the other hand, Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian National Security Council, revealed on February 1 1 that Russia is strengthening the production of "the most powerful weapons", including "weapons based on new physical principles". This is the third time in recent days that Russian high-level officials have hinted that new strategic weapons may be put into the battlefield in Ukraine.

165438+1On October 30, Russian Defense Minister shoigu said at a ministerial meeting that the Russian army will speed up research and development and deploy the next generation of advanced weapons on the battlefield; Borisov, the former deputy prime minister in charge of the weapons industry, later told the media that this may point to hypersonic weapons, robot systems and "weapons based on new physical principles".

"Weapons based on new physical principles" is a new concept put forward in 20 12 Russian military reform. Russian President Vladimir Putin once defined it as a new type of weapon developed based on physical principles such as radiation, geophysics, wave, genetics and psychophysics in his signed article. Vladimir Belus, retired Major General of the Russian Army, listed more specific directions in his paper, including genetic weapons, climate and weather weapons, psychological warfare weapons and acoustic weapons. Western analysts believe that some low-intensity weapons have been used on the battlefield in Ukraine. The main features of these new weapons are that they can kill each other's effective forces on a large scale and avoid "political censure like nuclear weapons."

Ukrainian and western intelligence agencies are eager to analyze the specific meaning of Russia's high-level statement: Is it related to more unconventional combat methods or is it part of "psychological warfare" itself? The Institute of War Studies believes that Russia's recent statement is both false and true. For example, rumors about an attack from the border of Belarus to northern Ukraine are "false", with the aim of containing Ukrainian troops near Kiev and eventually creating a favorable environment for Russian troops in Donbass.

According to the analysis, both Russia and Ukraine are under the pressure of "insufficient preparation" for long-term wars. Due to the limited stocks of Soviet-made weapons and ammunition in NATO member countries, the Ukrainian army is facing an aid crisis. In this context, winter may become a period for both sides to "save the family". Ukraine will strengthen asymmetric warfare and promote long-term aid agreements with the West; Russia is trying to maintain its military superiority, waiting for new weapons and effective forces to fight back in the spring. Koltunov revealed that there are still voices in Russia worrying that "there may be the next military mobilization" in early 2023.

However, "saving the family" does not mean that the situation is degraded, but may lead to an intensification of the humanitarian crisis. Considering the possible long-range strike by Russian troops, Kiev Mayor Kritchenko recently warned that the problems of power supply, water supply, heating and network interruption in Ukraine "may last until spring".

Author: Cao Ran