In May, the price of grain changed dramatically, and the price of corn rose. Should the new grain wheat open higher and go higher?

In April, with the suspension of temporary storage of wheat, the domestic wheat market ushered in the period of the largest increase before the new grain was listed, and the quotations of domestic flour mills climbed to more than 1.7 yuan/kg. However, the price of wheat has risen, the phenomenon of grain storage companies has increased, and the circulation of wheat in the market has increased. However, the operating rate of flour mills is low, the goods of flour are not smooth, the downside risk of the market increases sharply, and the wheat market declines!

In May, with the listing of new grain wheat in Hubei Province, the price of old grain wheat continued to fall, and the auction of China Grain Storage Company generally reached 70%. The market trading enthusiasm is biased, the demand for deep processing is low, and the cautious mood is strong. Domestic old grain wheat will continue to fall. At present, factory quotations are generally in the range of 1.6 ~ 1.65 yuan/kg, and the market still has a large downside.

It is understood that in Hubei, some buyers quoted the price of new grain wheat at around 1.4 yuan/kg. Due to the rising logistics cost, it is estimated that the ex-factory price will reach 1.5 yuan/kg, and the overall situation has been decided. However, due to the quality difference, the field purchase price is quite chaotic. For example, Anqing Wangjiang, the wheat in the field 1.60 acquisition. After drying, the price is about 1.4 yuan, and Jingzhou, Hubei has good quality. The FOB price of wheat with moisture 14% reaches 1.46 yuan/kg.

Institutional analysis, combined with the rising international food prices and domestic supply and demand levels, it is a foregone conclusion that new grain wheat will open higher! On the one hand, the price of chemical fertilizer raw materials has risen too fast, the price of chemical fertilizer has risen, the cost of wheat planting has generally risen, and the bullish sentiment of growers is high; On the other hand, wheat was sown late last year, and the seedling situation was weak. The market was worried about the increase of new grain wheat production.

Superposition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the extreme dry weather in India will also aggravate the increase in the price of rations in the international market and form obvious support for the domestic wheat market!

However, with the gradual increase of wheat market, the northern and southern regions gradually enter the rainy season, and the quality of wheat harvest will be uneven, which will also limit the continued rise of wheat prices, and the market may show a high opening and slow decline. Collect the rhythm of new grain market and the weather conditions in wheat producing areas!

As for the corn market, in May, food prices may change dramatically. With the gradual decrease of grass-roots corn in corn producing areas, grain sources are concentrated in the hands of traders, who are bullish and enthusiastic about hoarding goods. After the inventory of deep processing enterprises continues to be consumed, the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory will be stronger, and the performance of domestic spot corn will be highlighted!

According to the data, in the northeast market, with the gradual easing of the mask problem, the market corn circulation is smooth and the enthusiasm of supply and demand is gradually active. However, due to the bottom of surplus grain at the grass-roots level, traders feel higher when they encounter higher food prices, and the quality of corn is better and the price support is stronger. Northeast corn has a tendency to continue to strengthen!

In the North China market, the grass-roots grain sources are gradually decreasing, and traders also lack the sentiment of shipping. There are only about 400 vehicles deep-processed to the factory, and the arrival of enterprises is less, and the sentiment of price increase is one after another. The quotations of deep processing enterprises in North China and Shandong are rising, but the increase is generally around 10 ~ 20 yuan/ton, and the quotations are generally around 1.4 ~ 1.45 yuan/kg.

According to industry insiders, after May, the domestic grass-roots corn stocks further decreased, and the rhythm of farmers selling grain in producing areas gradually stagnated, and the grain sources were concentrated in the hands of traders. However, due to the continuous consumption of inventory of domestic deep processing enterprises, some enterprises have successively listed to collect grain. However, due to the firm stock price of traders and the insufficient circulation of corn in the market, the corn market has an upward trend. However, due to the upcoming listing of new grain wheat, some domestic traders still have the mood of clearing positions, and in the short term, corn will be sold in the North China market.

However, after the end of May, with the increase in the market volume of new grain wheat, traders gradually completed warehousing. After the short-term weakness of the corn market, the supply of corn in the grass-roots market is further reduced, while the international corn market is higher, and the cost of imported corn is increasing. In the later stage of the market, the price of corn may rise sharply. Personally, it is predicted that corn will probably rise to 1.6 yuan/kg in the later period!

In May, the price of grain changed dramatically, and the price of corn was easy to rise but difficult to fall. Should the new grain wheat go higher and higher? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!

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