What extreme El Nino events have occurred in history?

Most people's impression of super El Nino comes from the event of 1997/ 1998, and the event of 1982/ 1983 is also recorded in textbooks. 1983 In the summer, serious floods occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. 1in the summer of 998, a serious flood disaster occurred in the Yangtze River basin, and the whole Nenjiang River and Songhua River in Heilongjiang Province entered a state of emergency. Will the waves of history reappear?

The earth's surface consists of 7 1% ocean and 29% land. The change of seawater surface temperature may change the atmospheric circulation.

After the El Nino event, it will affect the global weather and climate through the tropical air-sea interaction.

In the past 100 years, the super El Ni? o event occurred three times, all during the warm period of Ramadegao after the reform and opening up. The first two El Nino events occurred from1May 1982 to1August 1983 and from1April 1997 to1May 1998, respectively, which caused meteorological disasters such as rainstorm, flood and large-scale drought all over the world.

According to records, in the summer of 1983, that is, the year after the El Nino event of 1982/ 1983, a severe flood occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and a low temperature appeared in the northeast. The temperature in Heilongjiang in June was 195 1, the lowest in the same period. In the summer of 1998, that is, one year after 1997/ 1998 El Nino event, heavy rains and floods occurred in the Yangtze River basin and Northeast China.

"Bruce Lee" hit hard.

On September 20 14, the third super El Nino attack came quietly, which was the strongest El Nino event since 195 1. NOAA called this El Nino "Bruce Lee" to describe its ferocity.

Experts from the National Climate Center said that the El Ni? o event had a great impact on the global climate. Last year, the global surface temperature reached a new high after 20 14, making it the warmest year on record. From June 2065438 to October 2006 10, the temperature in the Arctic rose above 0 degrees Celsius in winter for the second time since records began. The Indian Peninsula and other places have been frequently hit by heavy rains and severe floods have occurred; Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines suffered the worst drought in 20 years, resulting in frequent forest and farmland fires; India is harassed by rare high temperatures; Australia was hit by a high-temperature heat wave in summer, causing forest fires; South Africa, Ethiopia and other countries have suffered severe droughts, and many African countries have seriously reduced their grain production; Brazil and other places have suffered from persistent drought, and many places in Latin America have suffered from heavy rains and floods. During Christmas last year, the temperature in many cities in the eastern United States broke the historical record of the same period.

Affected by the El Ni? o event, the precipitation in most parts of South China was abnormally high last summer, while the precipitation in most parts of North China was relatively low, showing the distribution characteristics of "more in the south and less in the north". After the autumn of 20 15, there was more precipitation in the south, especially in 1 1 month, and a rare "winter flood" occurred in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi. Last winter, the national average rainfall was more than 50% higher than the normal level, setting a record high.

This effect is uncertain and lasting.

At present, the experience of super El Nino is a magical event, an unexpected event and a bumpy and unpredictable event. According to the latest report of the World Meteorological Organization in February, 20 16, the peak of El Ni? o has passed, and now it is in a downward state, but it still maintains a strong El Ni? o level, and only entered the normal state of the center in the second quarter. The National Climate Center predicts that the El Ni? o event will end in May 20 16. What kind of heavy responsibility should big rivers undertake during the flood season of 20 16?

Moreover, the response of the atmosphere to El Ni? o is lagging behind, generally ranging from 2 months to 3 months. This brings great challenges to the weather forecast.

In addition, experts from the National Climate Center said that the factors affecting climate are complex. In addition to El Nino events, snow on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Arctic sea ice may also affect the climate in China. We can't simply attribute any climate anomaly to El Nino, nor can we simply speculate that there will be some specific phenomena in China's climate after El Nino. The actual climate characteristics are generally the result of the interaction of many factors.

In fact, the factors affecting the climate in flood season in China are complex, and El Ni? o is a strong signal on an interannual scale. The main rain belts in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are clearly visible, but there are still many uncertainties. The distribution of East Asian summer monsoon intensity, the intensity of western Pacific subtropical high and the location of western ridge, water vapor channel and tropical ocean transport path are very important in this seasonal process. Every time El Nino has the characteristics of * * *, it also shows specific characteristics, which does not mean that the climate will inevitably produce specific anomalies after El Nino. The National Climate Center said that while monitoring and forecasting in real time, it will further strengthen scientific exploration and make prudent responses and scientific decisions in the face of disasters.