The "truth" of the soaring pig price is too exaggerated, and the sudden plunge warns that the prices of pork, vegetables and eggs will fall?

After the National Day, there was a wave of rising tide in the agricultural products market, especially the price of pigs increased greatly, from 5. 19 yuan on October 5, 65438 to 8.245 yuan/kg at present. In about three weeks, the price of pigs per kilogram rose by 3.055 yuan, an increase of 58.9%.

0 1, the "truth" of the sharp rise in pig prices

So what is the reason for the rise? There are many opinions in the market, and the mainstream views are as follows: First, because pork consumption has entered the peak season, the consumption has increased greatly; Second, the price of live pigs bottomed out and rebounded, and the inflection point of rising came; Third, some people think that before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the pigs will be concentrated and the supply will be overdrawn. Others say that weather and epidemic factors are also pushing the price of pigs to rise. These reasons seem reasonable, but I feel that these may be superficial phenomena, and another point may be the deep-seated reason for the rise in pig prices, which may be the truth of the rapid rise in pig prices:

That is, "raise the price to collect pigs and sell meat at a high price." According to a friend who works in a slaughter enterprise, before the price increase, the daily slaughter capacity of their enterprise was around 5,000 heads. However, when the price of pigs rose to around 7.5-8.0 yuan recently, the daily slaughter dropped to around 2,000. However, the pork is insufficient, and the low-priced frozen pork slaughtered in the early stage is sold.

Recently, Director Kong Liang, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that since March 20021year, the output of piglets in large-scale pig farms has been over 30 million, and it has been growing continuously. As we all know, it is impossible to throw away piglets when they are born, so the supply of live pigs in the market will be relatively sufficient. It will fall to 5 yuan in September, and rise to 8 yuan at 5438+ 10 in June. Will the slaughter of pigs be reduced so quickly? Obviously not.

10 year 10/27 October, the pig market turned sharply, and the price of pigs in all parts of the country fell, a bit like "fleeing", with a drop of about 0. 1-0.5 yuan per catty. Among them, Jiangsu fell 0.5 yuan to 7.9-8.6 yuan/kg; Fujian Province fell by 3-4 hairs and 7.8-8.8 yuan/kg. See the attached table for the specific quotation of each province:

02. The price of pork is rising.

At the same time, pork prices have also followed suit. The average increase of pork is about 3-5 yuan/kg, the mainstream price is about 7- 12 yuan, and the overall increase is about 10- 15 yuan/kg.

The average price of local pork in Suiling, Heilongjiang Province rose by 3, 4 yuan. Before the price increase, the front leg meat was 7-8 yuan/kg, the pork belly was 8 yuan/kg, and the ribs 15 yuan/kg. Today, the front leg meat 10 yuan/kg, pork belly 1 1 yuan/kg, and ribs 17. Judging from the pork with white stripes on June 26th of/kloc-0, the price of pork with white stripes has also increased obviously: 25 yuan/kg of pork with white stripes in Wancheng District, Henan Province, 24 yuan/kg of pork with white stripes in Xiaxian County, Shanxi Province, 22 yuan/kg of pork with white stripes in Shangyou County, Jiangxi Province, 30 yuan/kg of pork with white stripes in Laishui County, Hebei Province, and 20 yuan/kg of pork in Licheng District, Shandong Province. See the table below for meat prices in other regions:

03, vegetable prices "caught off guard" soared.

The prices of various vegetables have soared. In just 1 month, some varieties have doubled directly, which really caught many residents off guard. Seeing that everything is so expensive, I don't know what to buy at the moment. 6. A catty of cucumber in 7 yuan, a catty of beans in 8 yuan, and a catty of small spinach in 10 yuan. In previous years, this price would only be the same.

Fortunately, the relevant departments have recently cracked down on the behavior of driving up vegetable prices. According to just bright. Jiayuguan City Market Supervision Bureau imposed a fine of100,000 yuan on a supermarket for driving up the price of vegetables.

This year, vegetable prices have gone up. According to industry analysis, first, the connection between autumn and winter vegetable production in some areas is not close enough, which is a bit out of touch, resulting in short-term supply shortage. Second, recent bad weather such as precipitation in the south and cooling rain in the north have affected vegetable production and brought price fluctuations. Thirdly, due to the rising price of refined oil, the current 92 # gasoline has reached around 7.5 yuan, and the 0 # diesel has reached 7 yuan, which leads to an increase in freight. At present, as the weather improves and the disjointed production in autumn and winter improves, the price of vegetables will gradually fall, so don't worry too much.

In 2004, the price of eggs entered the 5 yuan era.

Recently, the price of eggs has also risen sharply. The wholesale price in various places rose from 4.0-4.3 yuan line per catty in September to above 5.0 yuan at present, and the mainstream retail price in various places also rose to around 5.3-5.6 yuan again.

The latest information of egg price shows that the general price in Beijing is 0.09-0. 18 yuan, and the mainstream price is 5. 13-5.37 yuan/kg. The price of eggs in Dongguan dropped by about 1 gross, 4.89-4.9 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shanxi, Hebei and other northern producing areas rose by 0. 1-0. 15 yuan, and the mainstream price was 5.0-5.20 yuan/kg; Henan and Shandong producing areas rose by 0. 1-0. 15 yuan, and the mainstream price was 5. 1-5.2 yuan/kg; Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan, Hubei and other southern producing areas rose by 0. 1-0.25 yuan, and the mainstream price was between 5.0-5.27 yuan/kg.

Dear friends, the price of pigs plummeted 10 on June 27, so will the prices of meat, vegetables and eggs fall back? On this issue, my personal opinion is that the pig price in 8 yuan should be the ceiling of this rebound, and it is normal for the market to fluctuate. Next, the price of pork will also fall with the price of pigs; As for the price of chicken, vegetables and eggs, it should be a stage high point at present, especially the fall of pig prices will also play a certain stabilizing role. Personally, I think that the recent pullback of vegetable price and egg price has a driving force, and the 5 yuan (wholesale price) of egg price should be an important pressure level.