Taizhou weather warning

In a blink of an eye, at the end of the month, the agricultural product market once again ushered in a changing pattern, and pigs turned from rising to falling and continued to fall sharply; The price of corn and wheat has risen together, and the market enthusiasm is high; Sheep prices have also rebounded, and sheep prices in some areas are gratifying.

So what is the market? How to interpret the market next? Let's see:

First, pigs continue to fall, and meat prices do not fall but rise.

In recent days, the live pig market has been falling continuously. The latest quotation shows that the average price of live pigs has dropped to 13.6 1 yuan/kg, with an average drop of 0.22 yuan. Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu and other low-priced areas will soon fall below the 13 yuan mark.

10 On June 26th, the national hog market declined to varying degrees in all parts of the country except Hainan Province, with the top provinces falling:

The price of live pigs in Zhejiang decreased by 5 cents per catty, and the mainstream price was 14.0- 14.3 yuan/catty; Fujian fell 4 hairs, 14.0- 14.4 yuan/kg; Jiangxi fell 4 hairs, 13.6- 14. 1 yuan/kg; Shaanxi fell 4 hairs, 13.0- 13.6 yuan/kg; Chongqing fell 0.35 yuan, and the mainstream price was13.55-14.1yuan/kg.

Pig prices in Shanghai, Anhui, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Guangxi, Beijing, Tianjin, Gansu and other places generally fell by 3 cents, while those in other areas fell by 0. 1-0.25 yuan. See attached table for specific quotation:

Judging from the downward trend, the decline continues. Regarding the reasons for this decline:

First, pig farmers are psychologically loose. 10, the live pig market fluctuated frequently. After entering the later stage, it is obvious that the rise is weak. Some pig farmers are somewhat relaxed in the psychology of lowering prices, and some places even panic and are eager to go out of the market, which has led to a great increase in the pressure of selling pigs in the near future.

Second, the state has put in a large amount of pork reserves. Since September, reserve pork has been put in succession to increase the supply capacity of the pork market, which has played a positive and stable role in the rise of pig prices.

Third, the consumer side is not strong. On the one hand, due to economic factors and mask factors, the income of some residents has shrunk and their purchasing power has declined; On the other hand, as the price of pork is getting higher and higher, the mainstream retail price in various places has reached 22-25 yuan/kg, and the sparerib in some places has reached 30 yuan/kg, which makes ordinary low-income families really unable to buy and consume.

Monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 35.25 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from yesterday; Beef is 78.47 yuan/kg, up1.3% from yesterday; Mutton is 68.49 yuan/kg, up1.2% from yesterday; Eggs 12.73 yuan/kg, up 1.4% from yesterday.

Fourth, the number of live pigs is not low, and the pig price will not be pushed to such a high level. Some time ago, the price of pigs rose, because some speculators fattened up You Zhu, which should have been supplied to the market, resulting in tight supply. At present, this situation has been greatly reduced.

Regarding the market outlook, personally, due to the double influence of the logic of pig price decline and the traditional consumption peak season in the fourth quarter, the space for pig price decline should be limited, but it is not easy to have a sharp rise, and the probability will fluctuate between 13.5- 14.5 yuan.

Second, corn and wheat have risen together.

In recent days, the corn and wheat markets have both strengthened, and the market heat has further increased.

The wheat market is also rising in a large area: the purchase price of developed flour in Zaozhuang has risen by 1 point, and the quotation is 1.6 1 yuan/kg; The purchase price of Heze Huarui Noodle Industry rose 1 min, and the quotation was 1.62 yuan/kg; Shenzhou Wudeli rose by 0.8 points, offering 1.625 yuan/kg; Daming Wudeli rose 1 point, price 1.624/ kg; The emotional industry rose by 1.5 points, and the price was 1.6 1 yuan/kg; Wuteli in Baixiang, Xingtai City rose by 1 point, and the price was 1.635 yuan/kg.

Linyi Tancheng Wudeli Flour Factory rose by 1 point, and the price was 1.6 15 yuan/kg.

Wheat prices have risen, and the market generally believes that there are several reasons:

First, it is the second half of wheat sales. The surplus grain in the hands of ordinary farmers is not much, and most of it is concentrated in the hands of traders. The rhythm of sales directly affects the rise and fall of wheat prices.

Second, because the market is generally bullish on the wheat market, the price expectation is high, and grain merchants have different degrees of reluctance to sell, which leads to the increase in wheat prices.

Thirdly, because the period from now to the Spring Festival is the peak season for flour consumption, some processing enterprises have made preparations for the Spring Festival market and increased their purchasing efforts.

It is these reasons that have led to the steady rise of wheat prices.

In the corn market, although the trend of corn is not as good as that of wheat, it has a good performance. Corn market situation: Shandong Hengren Industry and Trade has been adjusted to 1.45 yuan/kg, Xiangrui Pharmaceutical has been adjusted to 1.405 yuan/kg, and the moisture content of Fukuan Bio-corn is ≤ 17%, and the price is 1.425 yuan;

The source moisture of Zhucheng is adjusted to 1.5 per catty 1.46 yuan, and that of Rizhao Jinhe Yuan Bo is 1.47 yuan; The biological purchase price of Hou Yuan in Mengzhou, Henan Province rose by 1.5 points, and the price was 1.46 yuan/kg; Evergreen Bio rose by 1.5 points, and the quotation was 1.4 1 yuan/kg; Liaoning Yihai Kerry rose 1.5 points, and quoted 1.34 yuan/kg; Gold corn in Xiaoxian fell by 1.5 points, and the price was 1.4 1 yuan/kg.

The corn market rose moderately, mostly due to local rotation, which pushed the corn price up slowly.

According to normal logic, at present, it is the peak of corn listing, and the price of corn should have fallen. Why not fall but rise? Investigate its reason, recently related experts gave the answer:

First, the demand factor, due to the diversification of acquisition subjects, the acquisition enthusiasm is high, mainly due to the recovery of pig production capacity, and the superimposed corn and wheat are lower than the wheat 0.2 yuan, resulting in a substantial increase in the demand for feed corn.

Second, the production cost has increased. This year's corn production cost is significantly higher than the previous two years. The land rent rented by some farmers reached 1.2- 1.3 million yuan. Coupled with the rising prices of fertilizers, agriculture, seeds and labor, the production cost of a catty of corn has increased by at least 3-5 cents compared with last year, which has led farmers to be reluctant to sell.

Thirdly, the recent Chenyu grain auction in some areas is optimistic, with the characteristics of high reserve price, high transaction rate and high premium, which has boosted the corn market.

In the market outlook, with the further increase in the market volume of corn, the probability of corn rising before the end of 65438+February is small, and a slight decline is not ruled out, but the medium and long-term price of corn is firm and optimistic.

Third, egg prices continue to rise.

Recently, egg prices have rebounded, but today's increase has narrowed, and egg prices have fallen in some areas.

Latest egg quotation: the average price of eggs in Northeast China is 5.30-6.27 yuan/kg, that in North China is 5.5-6.4 yuan/kg, and that in East China is higher, 5.87-6.8 yuan/kg; 5.85-6.7 yuan/kg in Central China; Northwest 5.7-6.8 yuan/kg.

From the specific area: Qingdao Xú Zhēng fell to 5 yuan, 285 yuan /45 kg; Qingdao Egg League fell to 0.2 yuan, 6.05 yuan/kg; Zhucheng, Anqiu, Changle and other places fell in 5 yuan, 285 yuan /45 kg; Laiwu, Jinan, Zouping and other places fell in 5 yuan, 265 yuan /45 kg; Ningjin, Leling, Qingyun, Xinyang, Zhanhua and other places in 8 yuan, 230 yuan /40 kg; Parts of Xuzhou, Suqian, Huai 'an and other places in Jiangsu generally fell within 4 yuan, 180 yuan /30 kg; Taizhou, Hai 'an and Yancheng dropped by 0. 15 yuan and 6. 15 yuan/kg.

Fushun, Tongliao, Benxi, Liaoyang, Haijiangcheng, Anshan, Shenyang and other places in Liaoning generally fell in 3 yuan, 178 yuan /30 kg; Zhoukou, Jiaozuo, Xinyang, Liaoyang, Xinxiang and other places in Henan fell in 0.2 yuan, 5.9 yuan/kg; Nanyang, Pingdingshan, Zhumadian, Sanmenxia and other places generally fell to 0.2 yuan, 5.95 yuan/kg.

The continuous decline in egg prices should be a normal decline in the market. The reason is:

First, the price of eggs rose too much some time ago, and even the retail price in some areas has surpassed that in 7 yuan. Falling back is the inevitable choice of the market.

Second, terminal consumption can't keep up. Eggs are so high that even a local county has reached 6.4 yuan/Jin, and the number and number of people buying eggs are decreasing.

Third, after entering 10, egg consumption enters the traditional off-season, which has a certain impact on egg prices.

Fourth, the price of sheep began to pick up.

In recent days, the price of sheep began to rise slightly, and the price of sheep in some areas began to rise slowly, which is undoubtedly good news for sheep farmers.

The latest sheep price shows:

660 yuan/kg of 30 kg male lamb in Moqi, Inner Mongolia, 450 yuan/kg of 30 kg mother cake and 600 yuan/kg male cake in Qinhuangdao, Hebei; Small tail Han sheep kebab 12.8 yuan/kg, fine wool mutton kebab 13.2 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep 13.5 yuan/kg;

Heilongjiang Bei 'an goat weighs 80kg 1500 yuan, Liaoning Fuxin male lamb weighs 30kg/720 yuan, and female lamb weighs 30kg/530 yuan; Fattening Hu sheep 14, eliminating ewe10.5-11.40 yuan/kg; Fattening sheep in Shanghe County, Jinan 16.0 yuan/kg; Fattening sheep in Yishui county, Shandong province 16.67 yuan/kg.

Judging from the above quotation, the price is indeed higher than that in August and September. Although the scope is not large, it is also a hope for farmers.

Recently, the price of sheep has rebounded, mainly because the weather has gradually turned cold and mutton consumption has entered the peak season. Roasted mutton and instant-boiled mutton hot pot are very popular all over the country, which has a certain pull on the price of sheep.

Regarding the next sheep price, I personally feel that the rebound rate is relatively limited, and there are many unfavorable factors:

First, because the sheep cycle has not yet arrived, many experts predict that there will be a turning point of trend increase next year.

Second, at present, the stock of sheep is on the high side, and many farmers are leaving the market one after another, which is very stressful.

Third, due to the global economic depression and mask events, income fell short of expectations and consumption power declined.

Generally speaking, sheep prices may be able to maintain a strong market before the Spring Festival, but there is no need to be overly optimistic.

Dear friends, at present, the prices of pork and eggs are artificially high, while the prices of mutton remain high. What's the price of your place? Welcome to share with netizens all over the country for your reference.