Facing pressure from Palestinian public opinion and the Israeli right wing, how does Trump act?

Original title: Faced with pressure from Palestinian public opinion and Israeli right-wing, how does Trump use the balancing act?

The second stop of Trump’s official foreign visit after taking office as President of the United States was Israel and Palestine. Due to the particularity of Palestinian-Israeli relations and Trump's own delicate role in Palestinian-Israeli relations, this trip has attracted much attention from the outside world. As the first U.S. president to visit Israel after Obama in 2013, Trump's trip to Palestine and Israel is also highly anticipated by the Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

Trump’s oscillation between Palestine and Israel

Trump’s visit to Palestine and Israel is notable largely because of Trump’s own role during the presidential election. In the early days of his election as president, he repeatedly expressed his pro-Israel stance on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, especially advocating moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and legalizing Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Especially when meeting with Netanyahu and his wife in February, Trump even said "I support a plan supported by all parties", but did not emphasize the Palestinian-Israeli issue like previous US presidents. The "two-state solution" is considered by the outside world to be a signal that Trump will no longer support the establishment of a Palestinian state.

However, in recent months, Trump’s attitude on the Palestinian-Israeli issue has changed significantly. On the one hand, he no longer emphasizes “relocating the embassy” and “legalizing Jewish settlements”. Not long ago, when he met with the visiting Palestinian National Authority leader Abbas, he expressed his determination to promote Palestinian-Israeli peace talks and hinted that he would support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. When Trump arrived in Israel, he expressed his desire to promote peace talks between Palestine and Israel. Therefore, when Trump visits Palestine and Israel, how to balance the "promise" he once made to Israel with the need to balance Palestine-Israel relations in reality has become the focus of most attention.

What does Israel want most from Trump?

The arrangements for Trump’s visit to Israel do not seem to be harmonious. For example, before the visit, Trump notified Russia of intelligence on terrorist attacks that the United States possesses. Since the intelligence came from Israeli undercover agents within extremist organizations, Israel believed that Trump's move would greatly threaten Israel. The safety of agents; there were also some differences between the United States and Israel regarding the itinerary. Trump canceled his planned trip to Masada, Israel’s “Holy Land of Patriotic Education,” as well as delivering a speech and shaking hands at the airport, and declined to do so. Netanyahu hopes to accompany Netanyahu to visit the "Wailing Wall", the Jewish holy site in the Old City of Jerusalem, which makes the Israeli side a little dissatisfied.

Despite these twists and turns, in general, Trump’s trip to Israel was still regarded as a top priority in Israel and received the highest standard of courtesy. The King David Hotel where Trump stayed was heavily guarded, and major Israeli dignitaries went to the airport to personally pick him up and greet him. Trump also "reciprocated", not only wearing a Jewish hat "kipa" to observe a moment of silence in front of the Wailing Wall, but also visiting the Yad Vashem Memorial Museum to show his support for Israel and the Jews.

In fact, within Israel, there are different expectations for Trump’s visit. Although Trump claimed that he would defend the "unbroken alliance" with Israel, in terms of specific content, Prime Minister Netanyahu hopes to be "taken care of" by the United States on the issue of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks and expects more from the United States. It can continue to maintain pressure on Iran on the Iranian nuclear issue, promote a series of sanctions against Iran, and curb Iran's "expansion" in the Middle East.

Compared with Netanyahu’s “pragmatism”, Bennett, the Minister of Education and leader of the right-wing Jewish Home Party, is more radical and hopes that Trump can help Israel transfer the West Bank to "Legalization" of Jewish settlements, supporting Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and then completely annexing the West Bank, opposing Palestinian-Israeli peace talks and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. It is said that when picking up the plane, Bennett shook hands with Trump and said: "Welcome to Israel, it is the 50th birthday of Jerusalem (Israel recaptured Jerusalem in 1967), so now is a good time to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Timing." Faced with Bennett's "surprise attack," Trump had to respond awkwardly: "Yes, yes.

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In fact, the Israeli Netanyahu government is very clear that Trump is unlikely to fulfill his previous “promise” on the issues of “relocating the embassy” and “recognizing Jewish settlements in the West Bank” ". And for Netanyahu, if Trump is too "submissive" on the Jewish settlement issue, it will increase the support of his right-wing political rival, the young Education Minister Bennett, which will not be beneficial to him. Check and balance the political factions in Israel. Therefore, what the Netanyahu government hopes most is Trump’s firm attitude on containing Iran. After all, Netanyahu finally won the election in 2015 by relying on the Iran issue; In addition, the upcoming peace talks between Palestine and Israel will lead to the polarization of relations between various political factions in Israel, which will facilitate Netanyahu’s remote control.

Before Trump’s visit, Netanyahu had already begun to control the situation. Through their close associates, Israel's ambassador to the United States, Ron DeMeir, and Trump's son-in-law, Kushner, met many times and discussed issues of mutual concern. Therefore, as soon as Trump got off the plane, he continued to promote relations with Israel and emphasized their relationship. The "Iranian threat" that took shape during the trip to Saudi Arabia is an "Iranian threat" recognized by the United States, Arab countries and Israel, which will greatly promote the development of the "unbreakable alliance" relationship between Israel and the United States, which is in line with Netanyahu. The concerns between the Niyahu government and Trump have also allowed Trump to find a balance among the calls for "relocating the embassy" and "recognizing the settlements" constantly shouted by the Israeli right.

Has Palestine received Trump’s support?

For Palestine, although Palestinian Authority President Abbas in the West Bank is also very much looking forward to restarting the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, he also visited Washington not long ago. At that time, he received support from Trump and seemed to have gained a certain initiative on the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. However, Abbas also faced internal challenges and interference from other issues.

Trump. On the occasion of Pu's visit, frequent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli military and police in the West Bank resulted in casualties among Palestinian demonstrators, and continued demonstrations by family members and angry crowds; while the regional leader of the mainstream Palestinian faction, Marwan Barghouti, was detained by Israel. Barghouti's family and supporters are still on a hunger strike in Israeli prisons for a month, demanding better prison conditions. They have also been holding demonstrations in the West Bank to demand that Abbas "take action". Trump is about to arrive. Visiting Bethlehem in the West Bank, Palestinian demonstrations will undoubtedly have an impact on him

For Abbas, of course, he can use public opinion to influence Trump's attitude on the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. But if it is done too hastily, it could leave a bad impression on Trump. During previous visits to the West Bank, Trump adviser Greenblatt repeatedly expressed to Abbas that the United States did not support Israel's claim to Palestine. Therefore, when the Israeli right wing calls the Palestinian demonstrators who were killed as "terrorists" and Barghouti who is on hunger strike as a "terrorist leader", how to balance the public opinion of the Palestinian side and the Israeli right wing? The pressure is a big test for Trump.

For Trump, his proposed "fighting terrorism" and "containing the Iranian threat" seem to be able to promote "reconciliation" among the United States' traditional allies in the Middle East, while calling for the restart of the Palestinian-Israeli The peace talks also seem to show that Trump is confident on the Middle East issue. But Trump’s trip to Palestine and Israel will not be easy. How to balance his past promises with the current political reality, and how to balance the intricate relationships between Palestine and Israel and within each other, will greatly test the political wisdom of Trump himself and his diplomatic team.