Strange thing in America: the epidemic has made many people unemployed, but the housing market is extremely hot.

The global epidemic destroyed the world order. In the second quarter of 2020, the American economy suffered the worst blow since the Great Depression. In addition to the e-commerce industry, almost all industries have entered the dark tunnel.

The real estate market in the United States also briefly stagnated in the spring. In March 2020, the real estate market looks set to plummet due to widespread household orders and a sharp rise in unemployment.

However, the residential real estate market in the United States is surprisingly flexible. So far, the real estate industry has played a great supporting role in the economic recovery of the United States and has become the pillar of the economy.

Not only that, under the raging epidemic, the American real estate market in 2020 turned out to be a record-breaking year. According to Zillow's data, 5.64 million houses were sold in 2020, an increase of 5.6% over 20 19.

Moreover, in June 5438+February last year, the average residential price in the United States was $266, 104, up 8.4% (about $20,587) year-on-year. House prices in all major markets continue to rise.

According to economists and market observers, the value of housing is increasing at the fastest rate in a generation, and there is no sign of slowing down in 20021year.

Although millions of people have been laid off or taken temporary leave, this has not stopped the nationwide buying craze. Buyers have to sell faster than usual to buy their dream house.

Therefore, the current real estate market in the United States has seen the highest sales growth rate since the unprecedented real estate boom reached its peak in 2005.

However, this expansion is driven by low-quality loans in the subprime mortgage market, while the current real estate boom is driven by strong demand and record low mortgage interest rates. These two factors are caused by the coronavirus epidemic.

Before the arrival of the epidemic, house prices had started to rise, but the epidemic led to a rapid rise in house prices at a double-digit rate. During the outbreak of the epidemic in the spring of 2020, the US housing market was once stagnant, but since June, the US housing market has experienced a record growth.

As house prices rise month by month, this shows the resilience of the American real estate market in the face of the continuous economic recession. Despite the uncertain economic outlook, disputed elections and worsening epidemic, buyers continue to snap up relatively few houses for sale quickly.

The epidemic has really weakened the ability of builders to fill the housing supply because their land is running out. Second-hand houses in the housing market are in short supply.

The number of houses for sale has dropped sharply, about 30% lower than the normal level in recent years. The market demand continues to be high, and the supply can only meet two thirds.

Housing inventory and mortgage interest rates are currently at historically low levels. The supply of existing houses for sale decreased to 1.9 months this month, the lowest level since 1999 began to have data.

As the inventory is so tight, the sales of existing homes are unlikely to continue to increase at the same rate as last year, which means that the sales of 202 1 existing homes may slow down slightly. It is estimated that the housing sales will increase by 3.8% in 20021year.

The rise of telecommuting has also triggered a new prosperity in the suburbs. The scarcity of land available for development means that builders may not be able to meet the growing demand, and house prices will continue to rise at 202 1.

One thing that has been talked about a lot is that the housing market in the suburbs is booming because people have moved out of the city. The epidemic has led some buyers to look for housing in areas different from the original plan.

However, there is a detailed research report that studies every conceivable housing market data point related to cities and suburbs to determine whether there is a major trend of urban migration to suburbs.

According to Zillow's research data, compared with the urban market, the suburban housing market has not strengthened at a disproportionate rate. At present, these two types of real estate markets seem to be very hot.

However, the epidemic has increased people's desire for houses with more space and gardens. Coupled with record low interest rates, house prices are rising sharply from urban to suburban markets.

Housing affordability crisis 202 1

Strong demand and low mortgage interest rate have pushed the house price to a level where it is difficult to save enough down payment, especially for first-time buyers.

Although the United States will still face economic and health challenges in the future, there is no doubt that the country will continue to recover from this epidemic, and the real estate market will maintain a strong momentum and will break more records in 20021year.

This time, the real estate market is mainly driven by two factors: the shortage of available housing inventory and extremely low interest rates. The double-digit growth rate of listing price and selling price shows the extreme shortage of inventory and the incredible demand-the sign of the seller's real estate market.

Although the real estate market is still hot, we may begin to see that rising house prices have damaged people's affordability unless the interest rate of 202 1 mortgage continues to fall.

At present, the mortgage interest rate is slightly higher than the low of 1 at the beginning of the year, but it is still at a historical low, which should continue to support the demand for mortgage loans.

According to the survey data up to 202 1, 1.22, mortgage applications decreased by 4. 1% compared with the previous week. The refinancing index decreased by 5% compared with the previous week and increased by 83% compared with the same period last year.

Last week, mortgage interest rates were mixed. The 30-year fixed deposit rate rose to 2.95%, the highest level since June 2020 165438+ 10. All other survey interest rates have fallen.

Although the mortgage interest rate is lower than 3%, the affordability of housing has declined because the impact of the lower mortgage interest rate (for buyers) is offset by the double-digit price increase.

202 1, the mortgage interest rate is expected to stop falling. The National Association of Realtors predicted that the average mortgage interest rate in 20021year was 3. 1%, and the mortgage bankers association predicted that the average mortgage interest rate in 20021year was 3.3%.

These interest rate forecasts are higher than the average mortgage interest rate of 3.0% in 2020, but lower than the average interest rate of 20 19.

Rising mortgage interest rates and rising house prices will accelerate the decline in purchasing power, further squeezing potential buyers in the spring housing sales season.

Mortgage interest rates fell further this week following the trend of 10-year US Treasury yield. According to the latest survey of Bankrate, the largest mortgage lender in China: 202 1 1.29, the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 2.860%.

It is expected that mortgage interest rates will continue to hover around historical lows. The Fed promised to keep interest rates and bond purchase plans unchanged-downplaying the urgency of raising borrowing costs from the lowest level close to zero.

According to the current 30-year fixed interest rate, every time you borrow $6,543,800, you need to pay $ 465.438+04 in principal and interest every month, compared with $4,265.438+0.60 last week. A year ago, the 30-year fixed interest rate was 3.70%, so you had to pay $460 a month to get the same amount.

According to Realtor.com's data, the median house price in the United States increased by 14.4% compared with the same period of last year, with double-digit growth for 24 consecutive weeks.

With demand still high and supply still limited, this road seems unlikely to change in the coming months. 202 1, it is predicted that the real estate market will remain hot, which will affect the affordability of buyers.

Now, the median house price is $340,000, and the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 2.860%. Suppose the buyer pays 20% down payment, and the mortgage principal and interest are USD 65,438+0,65,438+026 per month.

In contrast, according to Freddie Mac's data, in February 2065, the median house price in the United States was around $300,000, and the average interest rate of 438+09 and 30-year mortgages was around 3.58%.

At this time, a buyer faces a monthly repayment of $65,438+$0.088, which is $38 less than his current monthly repayment-assuming that the builder and seller meet the buyer's demand and make the house price flat all year round.

Lower mortgage interest rates will result in a monthly payment of $993, or a monthly savings of $95 compared with a year ago. If house prices continue to rise rapidly, low mortgage interest rates will help but not eliminate the risk of tightening affordability that the housing market may still face.

In the seller's market, buying a house will make people feel that you are losing money. Maybe you just have to wait a few months or even a year, and the price will level off (or fall). The problem is that the price may continue to rise until you are squeezed out of the market.

No one can guarantee which of these two ways will appear. Therefore, it is wise to find the right time to buy your dream real estate, or you can choose to refinance at today's interest rate, at least reducing your monthly mortgage payment.

202 1 year housing value forecast: the growth is not over yet.

At present, there is no indication that price growth will slow down. Zillow's economic research predicts that by the middle of 20021year, the annual growth rate of housing value will be as high as 13.5%, and by the end of 2002 10.5% higher than the current level.

The current forecast also shows that the sales volume will keep increasing in the coming year, and the sales volume in 20021year will reach 6.9 million sets, the highest level since 2005.

The current extreme demand is reflected in the sharp rise in housing prices, which can be attributed to the suppressed housing demand from March to July 2020, when most parts of the United States were in a state of total blockade.

Due to less and less inventory and higher demand, housing sales and prices remain strong in autumn and winter. Existing home sales also show the most tense real estate market in history.

Since May/June last year, the demand has not decreased significantly, and buyers and sellers continue to contact at a record speed. In June 5438+February 2020, the sales ratio of existing homes increased by 0.7% 10 165438.

This trend shows that the real estate market is as strong as the real estate bubble. This is far from the equilibrium level of the real estate market you can imagine.

National housing sales continued to grow, and the median sales price continued to maintain double-digit growth. Since the autumn of 2020, the transaction volume between buyers and sellers has been high.

Not only the demand for housing, but also the supply of new houses has reached the highest point since the outbreak of the epidemic. Although sellers are selling more and more houses, the United States needs more new houses to increase its inventory and slow down these sharply rising prices.

As expected, compared with last year, the real estate activities have been much better this past holiday.

Compared with 20 19, the listing price in 2020 continues to rise at a double-digit rate, which is driven by the demand of buyers, and the speed of buying houses is also nearly two weeks faster than last year. Extremely low mortgage interest rate promotes demand and relative purchasing power.

Last year, the national inventory fell by 39.6%, falling below 700,000 for the first time.

In the past year, the inventory of newly listed properties in China decreased by 0.8%, while that in big cities increased by 7.6%.

The median national listing price from June 5438 to February 2020 was $340,000, which was 13.4% higher than that in 20 19. Compared with 20 19, the average price of big cities increased by 8.8%.

Nationwide, the sales time of a house in the market from June 5438 to February 2020 is generally 66 days, which is less than 20 19 13 days in the same period.

Because the correction rate is lower than the normal level, the market is ready for a strong start of 202 1, especially when the new supply continues to improve.

The buyer's demand is still far higher than the supply and continues to grow. Due to limited supply and increased demand, house prices seem to have laid a solid foundation for this year. Even if trading activity declines in the coming months, they are likely to remain unchanged.

This stability shows that although the trend has improved, it has not let buyers breathe a sigh of relief, because it will not slow down the price increase. The decline in spot inventory, especially when the growth trend of new home sales improves, indicates that buyers are rapidly pushing up house prices.

Due to the strong interest of buyers, the number of newly listed houses is limited, and the total number of active houses has been lagging behind the previous year. Compared with the previous year, the speed of housing sales is getting faster and faster. From June 5438 to February 2020, the sales time of ordinary houses in the market was 66 days, which was 13 days less than last year.

Although new stocks are constantly entering the market, they are quickly digested by many buyers. Therefore, the supply of housing is still insufficient, and the unsold inventory can only be supplied for 1.9 months at the current sales speed.

202 1, housing market and mortgage default.

In addition to the record low mortgage interest rate and inventory shortage, there is another important factor contributing to the strong buyer demand in the US housing market.

During the epidemic, the government suspended the foreclosure activities of almost all properties (except vacant and abandoned properties). By the end of 2020, the number of seriously delinquent loans is close to the highest level in history, but the foreclosure activity is at the lowest level in history.

Due to this extension, the backlog of foreclosed houses is increasing. Before this government policy expires, no one knows how big the backlog of houses is.

The backlog of foreclosed loans here includes three types-foreclosed loans before the government delays repayment; Loans that may default under normal circumstances; And loans that default due to unemployment caused by the epidemic.

In order to help borrowers who are facing the risk of losing their houses due to the national emergency of coronavirus, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (hereinafter referred to as "enterprises") will extend the policy period of foreclosure and repossession of single-family houses to February 28th, 20021year.

This will reduce the burden of more than 28 million homeowners with "corporate" mortgages. Of course, this foreclosure extension only applies to single-family mortgages supported by these two financial "enterprises".

The suspension of foreclosure policy applies to the property acquired by these two financial "enterprises" through foreclosure or transactions instead of foreclosure. The current ban was originally scheduled to expire on 202 1 1 3 1.

For the last three extensions, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said that it will continue to monitor the impact of coronavirus on the mortgage industry and update its policies as needed.

At present, the Federal Housing Finance Bureau estimates that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will bear an additional cost of $654.38+04 billion to $2 billion due to the foreclosure ban caused by the 2065.438+09 coronavirus and its expansion.

According to the latest data released by the Black Knight, the situation of mortgage default has improved from June 5438 to February 2020, but by the end of 2020, the number of homeowners with serious default has increased by 1.7 million compared with the beginning of the year.

In 2020, 265,438+04,323 houses applied for foreclosure, accounting for 0. 16% of all housing units in the United States, lower than 0.36% in 2065,438+09 and lower than the peak of 2.23% in 2065,438+00.

The report also includes new data of 65,438+in February 2020, showing that 65,438+00,876 houses in the United States applied for foreclosure, an increase of 8% from the previous month, but a decrease of 80% from the same period last year.

The assets recovered by banks are 95% lower than the peak of 20 10. In 2020, lending institutions recovered 50,238 houses through foreclosure, a decrease of 65% compared with 20 19, and a decrease of 95% compared with the peak of 20 10150,500 houses, which is the lowest level since data were available (2006).

The state with the highest foreclosure rate in 2020 is Delaware (0.33% of housing units apply for foreclosure); New Jersey (0.31%); Illinois (0.30%); Maryland (0.26%); South Carolina (0.24%).

The metropolitan area with a population of more than 654.38+0000 has the highest foreclosure rate, which is Cleveland, Ohio (0.34%); Chicago, Illinois (0.30%); Baltimore, Maryland (0.29%); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (0.29%); Riverside, California (0.28%).

New trend of single-family housing construction

According to the buyer's behavior and sales, NAHB learned their confidence in the real estate market from the builders and incorporated it into the relevant forecast. Building permits have rebounded from the low point during the epidemic, and builders are competing to fill the gap between supply and demand.

The latest NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) shows that the confidence index of builders of new single-family houses dropped by 3 points to 83,438 438+ 10/0 in June, driven by the sharp increase in wood prices and the resurgence of coronavirus in most parts of the United States, but it is still at a strong level.

All three HMI indexes fell in June 5438+ 10. The HMI index to measure the current sales situation dropped by 2 points to 90, the sub-index to measure the sales expectation in the next six months dropped by 2 points to 83, and the index to measure the number of potential buyers dropped by 5 points to 68.

Let's take a look at the three-month moving average score of HMI. Northeast China dropped by 6 to 76 points, central and western China rose by 2 to 83 points, south China dropped by 1 point to 86 points, and west China dropped by 1 point to 95 points.

In June 5438+ 10, the builder's confidence index dropped, and in June 5438+065438+ 10, the sales of new houses fell sharply, which indicates that the operating rate of single-family houses may slow down in the near future on the basis of the current impressive speed. In the middle of June 5438+ 10, the demand for house purchase was still strong, and the application for mortgage loan for house purchase reached a new high since June 5438+02.

Despite the strong housing demand and low mortgage interest rate, buyers still face the problem of insufficient supply of new houses in the market, which aggravates the problem of affordability.

Although the real estate market continues to help lead the economy forward, limited inventory limits stronger growth. The shortage of buildable land is difficult to meet the strong demand, and the rising speed of material prices far exceeds the rising speed of house prices, thus damaging the affordability of housing. "

New residential sales: 65438+February 2020

The sales of existing homes are at the highest level in history, and the sales of new homes have also increased during the epidemic. These sales made the builders raise their prices. Buyer traffic is turning into sales at a record speed.

According to the prediction of American Urban Land Institute, the situation and value of American real estate market is expected to rebound in 20021year, and the trend will be higher in 2022, and the performance of single-family houses will surpass other industries, such as commerce, retail, hotels and leasing.

In 2020, the number of newly started single-family houses will drop slightly to 87 1 250, and it will rise to 940,000 in 2026 and 975,000 in 2022, the highest level since 2006.

At the same time, this report shows that the average house price will increase by 4. 1% in the next three years, which is higher than the long-term average increase of 3.9%. This report is based on a survey of 43 economists from 37 major real estate agencies.

It is estimated that 81.1100,000 sets of new houses will be sold in 2020. This is 65,438+08.8% (4.3%) higher than 683,000 in 2065,438+09.

According to the estimated data jointly released by the US Census Bureau and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, in February 2020, the annual sales rate of new single-family houses was 842,000.

This is 65,438+0.6% higher than the revised 829,000 sets in June (65,438+05.8%) and 65,438+05.2% higher than the estimated 736,5438+00,000 sets in February 2065,438+09.

From June 5438 to February 2020, the median selling price of new houses was $355,900, and the average selling price was $394,900. After seasonal adjustment, the number of new houses for sale at the end of 65438+February is expected to be 302,000 sets. At the current sales rate, this means a supply of 4.3 months.

Development Trend of Multi-family Housing in China

Multi-family houses continue to face severe challenges brought by the epidemic. The federal government recently passed the coronavirus pneumonia-19 rescue plan, which includes $25 billion in rental assistance.

According to the rent payment tracking survey conducted by the National Multi-family Housing Committee (NMHC), 88.6% of apartment tenants paid all or part of the rent before 65438+1October 20th. The survey investigated 1 1.6 million apartment units managed by professionals in the United States.

By 2020, 65438+1October 20, the proportion of American families paying rent will drop by 2.5 percentage points, that is, 294224 families. By 2020, 65438+February 20, the proportion of families paying rent will be 89.8%.

These data cover rental properties at various market prices in the United States, which vary in size, type and average rent.

Generally speaking, this epidemic has pushed the American economy into a dark depression tunnel (GDP growth will be -3.5% in 2020), but there are still two bright spots, one of which is the American real estate market.

This "abnormal" bright spot of American economy benefits from the energy given by three "low points" in the market: low inventory in the housing market, low mortgage interest rate and low mortgage foreclosure rate.