Forecasting methods for hotel human resources needs

1. Current situation planning method

The human resources current situation planning method is the simplest forecasting method and is easier to operate. It assumes that the enterprise maintains its original production and production technology unchanged, and the enterprise's human resources should also be in a relatively stable state, that is, the enterprise's various personnel allocation ratios and the total number of personnel will be able to fully adapt to the human resources during the forecast planning period. need. In this forecasting method, what human resource planners have to do is to calculate which positions of personnel will be promoted, demoted, retired or transferred out of the organization during the planning period, and then prepare to mobilize personnel to make up for it.

2. Experience forecasting method

The experience forecasting method is a method for enterprises to predict human resources based on past experience. It is simple and easy to implement. The empirical prediction method is based on past experience, and the effect of prediction is greatly affected by experience. When an enterprise has personnel turnover, such as promotion, demotion, retirement or transfer, etc., it can adopt a method that is combined with the current human resources planning to formulate plans. This is the simplest method.

3. Driving factor forecasting method

Find out the factors that have the greatest impact on human resource needs in business activities, predict changes in driving factors, and then predict human resource needs.

4. Multiple regression forecasting method

Not only considers a single factor such as time or output, but also considers the impact of two or more factors on human resource demand. The multiple regression prediction method does not simply rely on fitting equations and extending trend lines for prediction, but pays more attention to the causal relationship between variables. It uses various causal relationships between things to speculate on changes in each variable based on changes in multiple independent variables, and the validity of the speculation can be controlled through some indicators. A computer is required for calculation.

5. Descriptive method

The descriptive method is that human resource planners can describe or hypothesize changes in relevant factors of the enterprise organization in a certain period in the future, and start from the description and hypothesis Predict and plan future human resource needs through , analysis and synthesis. Since this is a hypothetical description, there are several alternatives to human resource requirements designed to adapt and cope with changes in environmental factors.