What impact does the macroeconomic environment have on the hotel industry?

How big is the market space of hotel industry, especially high-end hotels, how big is the impact of macroeconomic environment on it, what problems exist in the current development model of the industry, and where is the future direction? All these have become problems that hoteliers should think deeply about. A few days ago, at the 2 1 Century Hotel Industry Summit Forum co-sponsored by 2 1 Century Business Herald and Business Travel, the hotel industry representatives attending the meeting reached a consensus: "At present, the whole industry has overcapacity, and it will take time to reach a balanced state. In the meantime, if the hotel industry wants to get the same high income as before, the industry needs to work harder. "

The number of hotels is growing rapidly.

Since the 20th century, China's economy has developed rapidly, China's real estate industry has developed with the trend, and China's hotel industry has also entered an era of large-scale expansion. Behind the market prosperity, hidden dangers and risks are gradually emerging. According to the statistical bulletin of star-rated hotels in the first quarter of this year by the National Tourism Administration, the total operating income of national 12038 star-rated hotels in the first quarter was 53.628 billion yuan, which was11800 million yuan lower than that in the fourth quarter of 20 12. At the same time, the growth rate of hotel industry has not slowed down. An open statistic shows that in 20 13 years, there will be 6 1 180 new hotel rooms in China.

The influx of a large number of new hotels will undoubtedly further aggravate the competitive situation of the hotel industry, which is more obvious in the high-end hotel market.

At this forum, the representative of Haohua Management Consulting Company gave a set of data. In the next five years, the total number of five-star rooms in Beijing and Shanghai will exceed 50,000, Guangzhou will exceed 20,000, Chengdu and Sanya are expected to reach 1.5 to 20,000, and the number of five-star rooms in Dalian, Hefei, Xi, Wuhan and Tianjin will also reach1.5,000. However, in contrast, the hotel occupancy rate has shown an overall downward trend.

In the first quarter of this year, the average occupancy rate of five-star hotels in China was 50. 14%, while from 1 to May, among the five five-star hotel markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Sanya, Shenzhen had the highest average occupancy rate, accounting for 65%. Followed by Guangzhou and Beijing, which just reached 60%; The current accommodation rate in Shanghai is only 55%. Compared with the same period of 20 12, only two markets, Shenzhen and Sanya, have achieved an increase in the accommodation rate, and among the other three cities, Beijing has the largest decline in the accommodation rate.

"The whole market is currently facing many challenges, including government restrictions on public consumption, and the growth of the whole supply has not slowed down." Dai, director of Haohua Management Consulting Company, said.

To build a suitable hotel.

Although the high-end hotel market shows a trend of oversupply, "developers have not stopped building hotels. The logic of the developer is' we don't build, other groups will build'. " Michelle Steven, vice president of Wanda Hotels & Resorts Management Co., Ltd. believes that real estate developers actually don't want to build high-star hotels, but the government has put forward many requirements when transferring land, such as requiring a complex with high-star hotels. What developers consider is that they can increase the value of surrounding real estate and charge management fees. Therefore, even if the hotel was originally unwilling to build, under the influence of various factors, the developer eventually became the owner of the hotel.

Feng Xiaofeng, senior vice president of MGM International Resort Group, stressed that financial returns must be considered in any investment or any project. Need to build, where to build a hotel, what kind of hotel to build, what kind of return to get, etc. This is a problem that the whole industry needs to think deeply. Feng Xiaofeng said: "As a management company, what we want is a successful hotel."

Xia Nong, senior vice president of investment and development in Greater China of Hyatt International Hotel Group, reminded that in view of the current market situation, neither enterprises nor local governments should blindly pursue high-star hotels when building hotels. We want to build a hotel that conforms to the market and has a market rate of return. It doesn't matter whether a hotel has three restaurants or two restaurants. The most important thing is that the whole hotel should make money.

In view of the present situation of the hotel market, several people in the hotel industry agree that hotel management companies need to spend more effort on management in the future, and companies with poor management will be eliminated. In the new market situation, both developers and local governments need to be more cautious in hotel investment in the future. In the past, mistakes in decision-making can be quickly corrected through the growth of market demand, but in the current market background, once mistakes are made, it may take a long time to make up.

Seize market opportunities

Delegates have different opinions on the opportunities and challenges faced by the hotel industry.

Lu Shanghuai, executive director of the Hong Kong Hotel Association, revealed that the national hotel market situation has also had an impact on the hotel industry in Hong Kong. Over the years, the growth rate of hotel rooms in Hong Kong is 3%, which makes the supply and demand of hotels in Hong Kong develop in a balanced way, and the housing rate remains at 86% to 87%. However, in the first six months of this year, although the overall housing rate in Hong Kong remained at 86.3%, house prices fell by 8% in June. However, he said, "the hotel industry depends on the prosperity of the tourism market, and the growth of business travel activities can provide continuous demand for the hotel market. Although there may be some minor twists and turns and changes in the short term, the overall environment should not change. "

Yang, deputy director of china tourism academy Industrial Research Institute, believes that the hotel industry in China is still in adolescence, and youth has dreams, but the hotel industry still needs to persist. I hope the hotel will successfully complete the transformation from the government market to the business social market in the future.

He Jianmin, director of the Tourism Management Department of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, believes that there are four major development opportunities in China hotel market at present. First, the domestic market is large and the growth rate is high; Second, there is a great opportunity to increase the proportion of tourists for sightseeing and leisure. The rise of the elderly market and the rapid development of the family leisure holiday market have brought new opportunities to the hotel industry in China. The third is the high-net-worth market derived from high-income people; Fourthly, the new opportunities brought by urbanization in China. He suggested that the hotel industry should strengthen information management and adopt competitive strategies with local characteristics. (Reporter Li Ling)