How does Zhang Haiwei, the founder of Chen Hai Capital, view "freedom of wealth"?

Before I asked a friend what he hoped to achieve in Chen Hai, he answered four words:

Wealth and freedom.

Then I asked him what is the standard of wealth and freedom? He said that Shanghai's standard is about 270 million personal assets, and now it may be 290 million. Because of inflation, CPI will increase year by year.

I think the word "wealth and freedom" should be the goal of most people, even the goal of life, because we all believe that individuals can achieve greater value only on this basis. So if we aim at wealth and freedom, we must first answer a question:

How rich is money? Or, how rich is freedom?

Ten million? 100 million? Ten billion? No matter how big the number is, it is just a number, so we need to give these numbers a background and a comparative range. So I did a research, that is, pull out the Forbes list and see the proportional relationship between the number of rich people and the total population. I chose three years: 1999, 200 1, 20 19, and four countries: the United States, China, Japanese and Indian.

Look at America first. There are 400 people in the United States, with a net asset of $2 billion and a total population of 327 million,1/800,000.

Then China and Japan. There are 400 people in China, with net assets of 654.38 billion US dollars and a total population of 654.38 billion US dollars. There are 45 people in Japan, with a net asset of $65.438+0 billion and a total population of 65.438+0.27 billion, so the ratio between China and Japan is almost 65.438+0.3 million.

Finally look at India. India has 120 people, net assets 10 billion US dollars, and total population13.5 billion, which is110 billion.

It can be seen that the probability that the United States has a net asset of $2 billion is four times greater than that of China with a net asset of $654.38+0 billion, and then it is 654.38+03.5 times greater than that of India with a net asset of $654.38+0 billion.

This reflects a cruel fact, that is, in the case of different social infrastructure, everyone's opportunities, the possibility of success and the height they can reach are different.

Obviously, the social structure in India is relatively poor, so the present situation is similar to that in China and Japan. If you want to reach a higher level, then the United States will be a better choice.

There is a sentence in Taleb's Black Swan: "Most people have no concept of probability. They can't tell one in a hundred thousand from five in a thousand. In their view, these are called "small probability events". "If you look at1/800,000,1/3.5 million,1100,000 alone, you may not have too intuitive feelings, so you need some other probabilities to compare.

I found some very interesting probabilities. For example, the probability of a passenger encountering an airplane crash is11.2 million, and the probability of death in an airplane crash is11million. The elevator injury probability is about11ten thousand; The probability of being struck by lightning is11ten thousand.

Of course, the most daily thing is to buy lottery tickets. The probability of winning the first prize in the lottery is1180,000, which is smaller and more difficult than the above-mentioned accidental casualties.

Then we compare the probability of these accidents with the probability obtained by comparing the number of Forbes billionaires with the total population of the country before, and we will find a truth:

Having a net worth of $654.38 billion in China is more difficult than being struck by lightning, but it is much easier than winning the lottery.

Focus on China to narrow down the scope first, and then look at the Hurun Rich List. Hurun Report publishes the number of high-net-worth families in Chinese mainland every year. This net asset is to deduct debts, that is, to deduct costs while calculating house prices.

Then we will see that there are 4.9 million households with net assets above 6 million; There are 6.5438+0.98 million households with net assets10 million; There are 654.38+0.2 million households with net assets 1 100 million yuan; There are 84,000 households with net assets of $30 million. These totals add up to 5.6 million households.

Assuming that there are 1 household 1 person or 2-3 people, the number of high-net-worth people in China may be at least 5 million and at most 20 million, while there are1400 million people in China.

Then look at the distribution of cities. The cities with the largest number of high-net-worth families: Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have not changed their head positions.

Here, we will find that the first choice in life is actually a passive choice, that is, where is each of us born? But the choice of the day after tomorrow is active. Which country shall we go to? Which city are you going to live in? These two choices have determined our wealth base to some extent.