What impact did the Great East Japan Earthquake have on the Japanese economy?

On 20 1 1 March11day, an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale occurred in the northern part of Miyagi Prefecture in northeastern Japan. The earthquake triggered tsunami, fire, nuclear leakage, environmental pollution and other complex disasters, which had a great impact on Japan's economy, politics and society. According to the official data released by Japan, the Great East Japan Earthquake has caused nearly 30,000 casualties and unparalleled huge property losses, and affected by it, Japan is still in a dangerous period of high-intensity aftershocks, and the production and living order in some areas cannot be transferred to the normal track in the short term.

Pay attention to the Japanese economy. According to various surveys and statistical data, 3. 1 1 The Great East Japan Earthquake was the "second crisis" that Japan suffered after the international financial crisis. Japan, which has not completely shaken off the financial crisis, has exposed the fragility of slow economic recovery under the direct attack of complex disasters such as earthquakes. As a major participant and promoter of the global economy, Japan's post-earthquake economic trend and specific economic policies for post-disaster reconstruction have obviously become one of the focuses of the world. Important international economic cooperation institutions and organizations such as the BRICS Summit, the G-7 and G-20 Finance Ministers Summit and the International Monetary Fund all discussed Japan's post-earthquake economy as an important topic, highlighting the overall importance of Japan's economy in the global economic recovery and the concern and concern of the international community.

1. Complex disasters have caused multiple damages to the Japanese economy, and the pace of recovery has slowed down or become a phased trend.

3. 1 1 The Great East Japan Earthquake was a sudden natural disaster, which caused tsunami, fire, nuclear leakage, food pollution and other compound disasters. Moreover, in the northeast of Japan where the earthquake is located, due to the combination of the characteristics of its industrial structure and geographical layout and the multiple complexity of this disaster, the spread and spread of the post-earthquake derivative disaster effects have been accelerated, which eventually turned into a negative impact on the Japanese economy and the global economy. Generally speaking, the complex disasters caused by this earthquake have five characteristics: suddenness, complexity, severity, proliferation and persistence, which are embodied in the following three different levels.

(1) The macro economy has been hit hard, and the recovery momentum has slowed down, so restoring confidence has become a top priority. Complex disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and nuclear pollution have caused irreparable direct economic losses to Japan as a whole. In eastern Japan, especially in most coastal areas of Miyagi, Fukushima and Iwate counties, a large number of houses collapsed and damaged, and productive farmland was flooded in a large area, resulting in a sharp drop in the output of crops such as food and vegetables, and hiding the haze of related people's livelihood issues. More seriously, compound disasters not only bring systemic damage to the macro economy as a whole, but also bring a heavy psychological blow to people and enterprises involved in economic activities, prompting them to fall into pessimistic economic expectations again after two consecutive "lost decades" since the collapse of the bubble economy in the last century. On April 3, 20 1 1, the Cabinet Office of Japan released the monthly economic report for April, which comprehensively evaluated the export, enterprise income, enterprise management, personal consumption and price trend, and pointed out that although the overall economic recovery is still going on, the recovery trend is gradually weakening due to the Great East Japan Earthquake, and the high unemployment rate has become an important problem to be solved urgently. Moreover, the negative effects of compound disasters are gradually expanding and extending in depth, showing the typical characteristics of "from point to surface, from shallow to deep", and even endangering the overall environment of Japan's economic recovery and the future trend of macro-economy. The results of the "National Short-term Economic Observation Survey of Enterprises" released by the Bank of Japan in April show that the confidence of various industries in Japan in future development has dropped significantly. In March, except that the confidence index of large enterprises was still positive at 20 1 1, the similar index of small and medium-sized enterprises fell to negative at 5 and negative at 15 respectively. At the same time, the June forecast of 20 1 1 dropped to the negative value of 1 1 and the negative value of 23, indicating that the vicious impact of complex disasters such as the earthquake is even worse for the already depressed Japanese economy. In addition, the results of the March 20th11consumer trend survey released by the Cabinet Office show that the consumer confidence index (seasonally adjusted value of families with two or more persons) is 38.3, down 2.6 year-on-year, setting a record high since comparable data were available in April 2007, which once again reflects the indisputable fact that Japanese people's anxiety about the future economy has increased.

In addition, successive explosions and nuclear leaks occurred in various units of Fukushima nuclear power plant, causing large-scale nuclear pollution such as seawater, soil and atmosphere, further enhancing the "nuclear panic" psychology of Japan and neighboring countries, and also restricting the enthusiasm of economic natural persons to participate in economic activities and optimistic expectations for future economic recovery. The uncertain characteristics of future economic trends are becoming more and more prominent.

(2) The infrastructure has been severely damaged, resulting in a series of economic problems such as insufficient power supply and stagnant logistics and transportation. Due to the serious damage to important power and energy supply facilities such as Fukushima nuclear power plant, there is a large-scale power supply gap in Kanto and most areas of Japan. As a result, the implementation of emergency measures such as planned power outage and power restriction has disrupted the normal economic order in production and life, causing major economic participants such as domestic enterprises and multinational companies in Japan to stop production or cut their original production plans as a response. As far as the coping strategies of major Japanese enterprises are concerned, famous automobile manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda have made some difficult decisions, and accordingly stopped production or reduced production. Many of their overseas factories are also facing the potential risk of shutdown. In addition to the short-term suspension of production announced by well-known automakers such as Toyota and Honda, other major global automakers such as General Motors of the United States have also been implicated and have to make relevant decisions to reduce production or stop production. In addition, the leading electronics industry in Japan and even the whole world, represented by Sony, has also suffered a major blow from the industrial chain break, and the stagnation of the production of core components has caused the local spread of the post-earthquake effects in the global electronics industry.

In addition to the shortage of power supply, the infrastructure of highways, general roads, major ports and airports in Northeast Japan was also seriously damaged by the earthquake and tsunami, which led to the failure of road and port transportation, the overall logistics industry was in chaos, and the logistics system in some areas was "paralyzed", and even the serious consequences of the failure to deliver relief materials to the disaster areas in time. What is more destructive is that the large-scale spread of negative effects of circulation has become a "fatal wound" to curb the import and export of commodities and limit production space. The temporary closure of important logistics facilities such as ports and airports has restricted the time and space for Japan's foreign economic exchanges and future economic recovery.

(3) The escalating nuclear pollution crisis has become the most unstable factor threatening the future economic recovery. Due to the nuclear leakage crisis caused by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the fact that seawater, soil, atmosphere and food are polluted has caused great losses to Japan's economic activities and daily life at home and abroad. At the same time, nuclear pollution endangers the competitiveness and export scale of Japanese export products such as crops, food and consumer goods. According to a previous investigation by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, at least 25 countries and regions restricted the import of Japanese agricultural products and processed foods due to the leakage of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. [7] Moreover, with the continuous spread and deterioration of nuclear pollution in Fukushima nuclear power plant, it will further aggravate the difficulty of exporting Japanese products. Moreover, because Japan's economic structure is an export-oriented growth model, import and export trade has become a valve to support the country's economic growth and revitalize the domestic and foreign economies. Therefore, if the export of products stagnates or falls sharply, the economic recovery will be forced to slow down, and the development of domestic industries and technological upgrading will be restricted to a certain extent.

2. Economic strategy must be adjusted, and multi-level external dependence will become more and more prominent.

The above content expounds the direct economic losses caused by earthquakes and other disasters. Intuitively, the impact of this disaster on Japan's future economic trends, related economic policies and industrial activity adjustment will last for some time. Especially for the democratic government with little ruling experience, the economic crisis management to deal with this compound disaster is not only the re-planning and re-allocation of economic resources after the disaster, but also the practice and adjustment of economic policies advocated by it.

(1) The economic development strategy needs to be revised, and the initial position of the nuclear industry in the economic recovery plan may need to be re-examined.

At the end of August 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan won the House of Representatives election by an overwhelming majority, putting Yukio Hatoyama, then a party representative, on the throne of the Prime Minister. As a specific economic development strategy after Yukio Hatoyama's cabinet took office, the cabinet meeting on June 30, 2009 adopted the "new growth strategy (basic policy)", in which the implementation of the "green innovation-driven strategy of developing the environment and energy into a big country" was put in the first place in economic development.

However, due to the huge differences between Japan and the United States on the relocation of the US military Futenma base and Hatoyama's illegal acceptance of political contributions, the regime with Hatoyama as the core died unfortunately after just starting for more than eight months. After Yukio Hatoyama, Naoto Kan, Deputy Representative of the Democratic Party, succeeded as Prime Minister. Although there are some changes in the personnel arrangement and the handling of specific affairs in the cabinet compared with the Hatoyama regime, the economic development strategy advocated by Naoto Kan's cabinet basically continues the basic policy of "green economy" determined in the Hatoyama era.

On June 8, 20 10, Naoto Kan's cabinet first announced the "three strong" economic development strategy of "strong economy, strong finance and strong social security", and specifically put forward seven important areas of future economic development and related basic principles, objectives and expected results. [9] In Naoto Kan's version of the economic development strategy, the strategy of "green innovation-driven environment and energy power" advocated by the Hatoyama government has been continued. Throughout the two economic development strategies of Hatoyama and Naoto Kan, although the development and utilization of nuclear energy are not specifically mentioned, the development and utilization of nuclear technology and nuclear energy are implied in the expressions of developing clean and renewable energy and building a low-carbon society. Moreover, according to the existing strategy of the Japanese government to develop foreign economy, it has become a mainstream trend to continuously promote low-carbon and efficient Japanese technologies and products to other countries, especially developing countries such as Vietnam and India, mainly including public facilities with high technical content and obvious competitive advantages such as nuclear power plants and Shinkansen. However, contrary to expectations, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident seriously damaged Japan's image as a "mythical country of nuclear safety" and fundamentally disrupted the important layout of nuclear technology application and promotion in Japan's economic development strategy. What is more serious is that many mass demonstrations "protesting against the construction of nuclear power plants and the development of nuclear technology" broke out in important politically sensitive areas in Japan, such as Tokyo, forcing Japanese political circles and the Democratic Party government to fall into an embarrassing position on the nuclear issue.

What needs to be added here is that Japanese nationals themselves bear a heavy historical burden on the nuclear issue, and the construction and application of nuclear power plants have always been mixed with opposition. The nuclear crisis caused by Fukushima nuclear power plant has raised the anxiety of Japanese people about nuclear accidents and nuclear-related issues, and their anxiety is closely related to the follow-up results of nuclear accidents. In the short term, Japan may suspend matters related to sensitive topics of the nuclear issue, and then implement a series of specific nuclear-related operations after the sensitivity and anxiety of the nuclear issue have slowed down.

In addition, the economic revitalization policies such as "building the country through sightseeing" emphasized by the Democratic government will also become one of the economic revitalization strategies that need to be examined urgently under the impact of this compound disaster. According to the latest statistics of Japan Tourism Agency, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan in March of 201/kloc-0 was only 352,800, a year-on-year decrease of 50.3%, and the number of Japanese nationals leaving Japan was1282,000, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. [1 1] The sharp decline in the activity of personnel mobility poses a great threat to the scale expansion of the tourism industry, and also harms various tourism-related terminal industries such as hotels, restaurants, transportation and tourism products.

To sum up, with the complex disaster crisis and the continuation of post-disaster reconstruction work, Japan's actual economic reconstruction policy and long-term revitalization strategy are bound to change, and whether it can effectively curb the spread of disaster effects will become one of the important influencing factors.

(2) In the short term, agricultural problems become the burden of economic extroversion, but foreign trade and economic cooperation are the necessary remedial measures to solve the long-term strategic development.

Due to Japan's long-term high subsidies and effective policy protection for its own agriculture, the competitiveness of Japanese agriculture, especially basic agriculture based on food crops, has almost been lost, and the issue of freedom and opening up in the agricultural field has become the main weakness of Japan's foreign economic and trade negotiations. Moreover, due to Japan's special political system structure, a large number of votes and political contributions come from various fields and industries related to agriculture, and agricultural interest groups have become the biggest obstacle to Japan's foreign economic and trade cooperation.

Multiple disasters have hit the agricultural production base in northeastern Japan, and the harm caused by nuclear pollution cannot be fully revealed in the short term. Therefore, in the agricultural field with weak foundation and little willingness to open up, the pace of foreign trade and economic cooperation is bound to slow down in the short term, and the implementation of more agricultural aid policies in the next step will breed the dependence of agriculture on policy protection. Moreover, as Japan as a whole is still in a difficult transition period of post-disaster reconstruction, the conditions do not have the basis and opportunities to talk about cooperation, so the process of economic and trade cooperation with some countries and regions will be temporarily put on hold or postponed. However, from the medium and long-term development strategy, expanding and enriching the forms and contents of foreign economic cooperation, especially the foreign economic and trade cooperation mode with TPP (Pan-Pacific Economic Partnership) and FTA (Free Trade Agreement) as the core content, will be an imperative strategic issue in the medium and long term. In other words, it is only a matter of time before Japan strengthens foreign cooperation and promotes domestic economic opening. Moreover, to some extent, the occurrence of multiple disasters such as earthquakes will accelerate Japan's participation in the process of economic globalization and liberalization. By creating the overall background and atmosphere of "saving Japan and saving Japan's economy", we will remove the obstacles or bottlenecks that originally restricted Japan's participation in TPP, FTA and other economic and trade cooperation negotiations. At that time, the Japanese agricultural groups, which have always been protected, can only make their debut under the strong offensive of public opinion, and transfer part of their interests under the background of Japan's full economic opening. Therefore, once the time is ripe, Japan's domestic business elites, bureaucrats and politicians will inevitably increase their efforts in this regard and promote the export-oriented and cooperative Japanese economy.

In addition, politically, the earthquake attack gave the Democratic Party a "happy" political opportunity for a period of time, and Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his cabinet avoided the "bankruptcy crisis", and the lack of ruling experience was temporarily "understated". Specifically, Naoto Kan's government was originally scheduled to make a decision on whether to join the TPP in June 201/. However, Naoto Kan's government lacked some research and preparation for this decision, and the rising opposition in Japan caused the decision to be controversial from the beginning. However, due to the continuous extension of the negative impact of the earthquake, the losses are still unpredictable. In June, Naoto Kan's government took the opportunity to announce the abandonment of the original decision-making plan. In addition, Naoto Kan's government also suspended the EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement) being negotiated with Australia and other countries. In short, the negotiation and signing of all foreign economic cooperation agreements must wait until the harmful results of multiple disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and nuclear pollution gradually become clear, and the domestic political environment is out of the unstable state after the earthquake. This performance of Naoto Kan's government is nothing more than two preparations, that is, "to gain time and sort it out internally", that is, first, to clarify the context and gains and losses of the Democratic Party's foreign policy since the Hatoyama regime came to power, it needs a certain buffer period for textual research. On this basis, it is necessary to redefine the overall policy and specific implementation policy of Japan's foreign policy in the post-earthquake era; The second is to gain time for "observing public opinion and winning people's hearts." After all, ordinary people have the final voting right to decide the government of Naoto Kan and the Democratic Party. Therefore, the future policies of Naoto Kan's government and the Democratic Party will consider the urgency and needs of the Japanese people as much as possible, and strive to achieve "dish matching".

(3) The number of unemployed people in Northeast China has increased sharply, and the future labor problem may become one of the main contradictions.

According to the analysis of Nomura Research Institute, a famous Japanese research institution, because the labor force in the disaster area is concentrated in the primary industries such as agriculture, forestry and aquaculture, and the farmland, forest and coastal areas in these areas are seriously damaged by this compound disaster, these industries will produce a large number of unemployed people. In addition, the secondary industries such as manufacturing and construction are also facing the major problem of labor surplus, and job-hopping is imperative. Generally speaking, after 20 17 years and 6 years of post-disaster reconstruction, more than 80,000 jobs will naturally be lost in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima coastal areas severely affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake. The target is expected to cover 38 towns and villages in three counties.

Further analysis shows that the employment situation in the earthquake-stricken areas of East Japan presents the following main characteristics: (1) Except forestry, fishery, mining, hydropower, coal and heating, the employment distribution of other industries is basically the same as that of Japan as a whole, and the employed people are mainly concentrated in traditional industries such as wholesale and retail, manufacturing, construction and service; (2) Compared with the whole country of Japan, the proportion of employed people in agriculture, forestry and fishery in this area is relatively high, which highlights its important position as an important production base of food such as grain and seafood, and also implies the hidden danger of insufficient self-sufficiency of daily necessities in Japan in the future affected by this compound disaster; (3) The disaster involves a wide range of industries and covers a large number of people. The total employed population of nearly 800,000 has been or will be affected to varying degrees, which has put some pressure on the re-layout of the job market. With the implementation of post-disaster clean-up and "home reconstruction" policy, the deployment and management of the employed population has become one of the important problems to be solved urgently.

In the medium and long term, with the loss of a large number of labor and the multiple effects of the aging trend of fewer children, the lack of effective labor in this region, especially the professional labor in a special field and industry, will become one of the core contradictions. In other words, Japan will continue to supplement a large number of laborers from neighboring countries to fill the labor supply gap brought about by its economic development. Therefore, it is necessary for the Japanese government to abandon its conservative attitudes and practices in foreign employment, immigration and other related policies, and moderately liberalize its visa and naturalization policies for foreign high-tech people and effective laborers.

(4) The security of food supply will be improved.

Because the basic agriculture has been greatly impacted by the earthquake and nuclear crisis, there is a big gap in the downstream grain supply chain. The worsening trend of this problem is likely to lead to the shortage and crisis of terminal food supply, and will have a far-reaching impact on Japan's food foreign policy. Specifically, due to the impact of the earthquake and tsunami and a series of nuclear accidents caused by the Fukushima nuclear power plant, the soil and water quality in Fukushima and its surrounding areas have been polluted to varying degrees, causing panic of nuclear pollution of basic foods such as agricultural products and seafood. Affected by this, the demand for food and vegetables produced in Japan will decline in a certain period of time in the future, and part of the inherent demand will turn to dependence on imported food. Therefore, Japan is bound to increase the import of basic food to China, Viet Nam, Thailand and other countries to make up for the gap between supply and demand caused by domestic demand preference. Moreover, the northeastern part of Japan is called the "granary" of Japan. Affected by this multiple crisis, the normal supply in Northeast China will be blank, and there may even be the possibility of "structural reorganization" of agricultural products supply. In addition, due to the low self-sufficiency rate of Japanese food for a long time, many agricultural products have to rely on neighboring countries such as China, Australia, the United States and Southeast Asia. Therefore, with the further decline of Japan's food self-sufficiency rate, its dependence on food imports from neighboring countries has steadily increased. Therefore, the Japanese government is bound to strengthen diplomatic efforts in this regard to ensure domestic food security and the stability of the supply order, which will also lay a solid foundation for the new cooperation between China and Japan in the import and export of agricultural products and food safety.

(5) The debt ratio has hit record highs, and an inflation crisis is brewing.

In order to raise a large amount of funds for post-debt reconstruction, the Japanese government must issue large-scale national debt to make up for the lack of financial funds. However, due to the long-term deficit operation of the government and the large-scale subsidy fiscal policy implemented after the Democratic Party came to power, the Japanese government, which was already on the verge of debt crisis, further reduced the actual space for borrowing. [13] Moreover, as Japan's debt ratio has hit record highs, the hidden dangers of the sovereign debt crisis are gradually brewing and being transmitted to the international credit market in a certain way. 20 1 1 Standard & Poor's (S&P), an internationally renowned credit rating agency, downgraded Japan's sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-", and just over a month after the March11earthquake, the same agency looked forward to Japan's sovereign credit rating. In addition, Moody's Investors Service, another major international credit rating company, has also completed the same market operation. Therefore, it can be judged that the sudden attack of the earthquake has accelerated the development of Japan's financial crisis, which is bound to threaten Japan's sovereign credit, weaken the willingness and confidence of foreign capital to flow to Japan in the future, and also make Japan's economy, which is about to start post-disaster reconstruction, lose some external support.

In addition, the political struggle between the ruling Democratic Party and the opposition party headed by the Liberal Democratic Party on financial issues is very different, which can easily become a stumbling block to the normal operation of finance, and further limit the scale of raising funds for post-disaster reconstruction to the degree of compromise between the ruling party and the opposition party.

At the same time, in order to curb the upsurge and spread of financial panic after the earthquake, the Bank of Japan actually adopted a very loose monetary policy to activate the domestic currency circulation and financial market by increasing liquidity on a large scale. Although this measure, as a temporary measure, has played the purpose of restraining panic, activating consumption and promoting domestic investment to a certain extent, it also leaves the risk of excess liquidity and a new round of inflation in the future. At the same time, because the global economy is still in the recovery stage, the European sovereign debt crisis has exposed the characteristics of uncertainty in the future, and the unemployment rate in the United States is still at a high level of over 8%. The implementation of a series of quantitative easing policies by the Federal Reserve has led to widespread global inflation and pushed up the prices of commodities such as oil, natural gas, gold and silver. In this way, the import cost of energy and raw materials necessary for Japan's post-disaster reconstruction will be forced to rise, and the domestic debt scale will increase, which will lead to a sharp increase in the potential risk of inflation in the future, and the uncertainty of economic development will become more and more obvious.

3. The prospect of Japan's post-earthquake economic recovery and its impact on the global pattern.

(1) The short, medium and long stages are different, and foreign cooperation lays the foundation for development.

Due to the severe impact of this earthquake, most manufacturing plants in northeastern Japan have fallen into the helpless dilemma of stopping production and reducing production, and some basic components and core components are in short supply, which even triggered the occurrence of global industrial chain faults. Affected by it, Japan's economy has been seriously frustrated in the short term, and the slowdown in recovery has become an indisputable fact. More seriously, the psychology of Japanese consumers and investors is deeply affected by this complex disaster, and some consumption and investment activities will slow down or decrease in the short term, resulting in the lack of effective supporting power for economic growth. Moreover, various industries in Japan will also make different targeted strategies. Undoubtedly, the outward transfer of some manufacturing industries will accelerate, and Asian countries, mainly China, will become their main destinations.

In the medium and long term, due to the superposition of social problems such as low birth rate and aging, and the hollowing out of manufacturing industry, the weakness of insufficient endogenous growth of Japan's economy will become more and more prominent. Therefore, it is urgent to build a new economic growth model, and vigorously improving the openness of foreign economy and the scale of exchanges will become the main strategy of Japan's economic development in the future. Its main breakthrough lies in the research and development and export of high-tech and the export of large-scale infrastructure construction projects. In addition, a series of economic and diplomatic practices carried out by the Japanese government will be more inclined to reach economic cooperation agreements or frameworks such as TPP, EPA and FTA, and seek a realistic and feasible path for Japan's foreign economic and trade cooperation. As a result, the process of bilateral and regional economic cooperation and integration will start a new round of development, and the content and methods of cooperation will be more abundant and sufficient. More importantly, the purpose of this cooperation not only stays on the basis of economic development and mutual benefit, but also covers the consideration of the security and supportability of economic development.

In addition, the earthquake occurred in Japan, but through the transmission mechanism of the global industrial chain, local contradictions quickly turned into global systemic risks, and the destructive effects of compound disasters spread all over the world. Based on the profound lessons of this industrial chain fault, major countries will increase the research and development of basic components and core components of specific industries, and strive to avoid the unfavorable situation of their own industrial chain fault caused by excessive dependence on external imports. As a result, Japan's high-tech and patented products in automobile industry, steel industry, electronic industry and other fields will be under certain competitive pressure, and the large-scale appearance of substitute products will inevitably bring unfavorable competitive risks to Japan's long-term overall economic development.

(2) The political and economic interests are redistributed and the regional pattern is displaced.

The relative decline of Japan's economic strength is in sharp contrast with the rise of neighboring countries' national strength. In this way, Japan's political influence will be correspondingly weakened, and it will be more difficult to pursue its ambition and pace of becoming a global political power. As a result, there have been voices in Japan about reducing the official development assistance (ODA) of the Japanese government, which objectively shows the contraction of Japan's foreign aid policy, but also shows the helpless choice in the political and economic contradictions. [14] However, as the spokesman and defender of the main interests of the United States in East Asia, Japan's core position will not be replaced by other American allies, and the Japan-US alliance will be closer because of its unique geographical advantages. At the same time, in order to realize the domestic economic recovery in the United States and the "export multiplication plan" proposed by the Obama administration as soon as possible, the effective demand of major export destination countries and regions such as Japan, China and Europe will play a crucial and decisive role. At this time, the economic value of traditional allies of Japan and the United States will be reflected in higher-level cooperation, and a new round of economic and trade cooperation between Japan and the United States will also involve more bottlenecks in high-tech fields such as low-carbon environmental protection and new energy development and utilization. In short, the Japan-US alliance will tend to be stable after the Futenma storm, which will also create more cooperation conditions for Japan and the United States in their respective countries' macroeconomic adjustment, industrial policy formulation and global governance of the international economic order in the future.

Of course, in related affairs in Asia and the world, with the relative weakness of Japanese economic strength, the China factor will have more opportunities to play a leading role. At the same time, the realization and improvement of the cooperation mechanism of emerging countries will form a brand-new force to effectively participate in global economic and political governance.