What are the economies of Russia and Thailand like?

Russia's economic situation in recent years

Since 199 1 the disintegration of the former Soviet Union and the independence of the Russian Federation in February, the Russian economy has been in the transition period from a highly centralized planned economy to a market economy system. At the beginning of this transformation, the "prescription" prescribed by the Russian government was "strong medicine": from 199 1 to 1, and the so-called "shock therapy" was adopted. The main methods are as follows: 1. Privatize or nationalize state-owned enterprises; Second, let go of prices, the prices of most goods and services are determined by the market; Third, open to the outside world, relax foreign exchange control, and make the ruble a convertible currency; Fourth, tighten finance, reduce or cancel various subsidies, and strictly control government expenditure and money supply.

What is the effect of this "surgical" radical reform? 1The referendum and general election held in February, 1993 can be said to be the summary of "shock therapy" for two years: among1030,000 Russian citizens with voting rights, about 33 million supported the Constitution and radical reform; More than 23 million people expressed their opposition; Nearly 50 million people did not vote, forming a "silent majority" who was indifferent or disappointed with the reform. In the national election, the "Russian Choice" group that advocated the reform of "shock therapy" won 2/3 ~ 3/4 fewer votes than expected.

Domestic evaluation of reform is also different. Scholars who claim to be fair and just believe that the reform has both positive and negative consequences. It can be considered positive: the reform has accelerated the decomposition of the national economy and formed a mixed economic model combining various business forms and types, that is, in addition to the state-owned components, there are private, partnership and joint-stock enterprises; Gradually formed the material basis and organizational basis of market function-including the establishment of commercial banks and trading systems, the circulation of stocks and other securities; Despite the difficulties, the supply-demand structure finally began to operate, thus opening the way to competition. On the other hand, the market road paved by "shock therapy" has also produced extremely serious adverse consequences. It did not bring fundamental structural reform to the economy, but led to an unprecedented decline in overall output. At the end of 1993, the output decreased by more than 40% compared with the pre-crisis level. As far as the whole industry is concerned, 199 1 decreased by 8%, 19% and 1993 decreased by 32% compared with 1990. The deterioration of the economic situation naturally affects the decline of people's living standards. Although the goods in the shops have increased, most of them are imported, which ordinary workers can't afford.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation, during the period from 1992 to 1 993, the price rose by 162 times, while the cash income of residents only increased by 56 times, which means that the actual living standard of the people has dropped by two thirds. As a result of "shock therapy", the people lost more than 900 billion rubles only in 1992. The reform has thrown most Russians into the poverty line and even extreme poverty.

1992, the annual inflation rate in Russia is as high as 2000%. As the ruble depreciated sharply, the people suffered greatly. Especially when 1993 implemented the monetary reform, the Russian central bank announced the monetary reform plan only one and a half days in advance. The time for ordinary people to exchange new coins is only two weeks, and all banknotes that cannot exceed 35,000 rubles are exchanged at one time. The rest of the money should be kept in the bank as a time deposit for six months. At that time, hyperinflation, the devaluation of the ruble, and a large number of non-convertible surplus money deposited by ordinary people in the bank actually became waste paper. People's savings, which have been saved for many years for future use or retirement, suddenly go up in smoke. According to the statistics of the National Statistical Committee, at the end of 1993, there were 33 million people (22%) whose income was lower than the minimum living expenses.

Opponents of the government call all this "millennial plunder". Many economists, first of all, scholars of Russian Academy of Sciences, humorously say that "shock" exists, but "therapy" has never been seen. Government officials accused academicians of being "impersonal" and "naive", stressing that everything was going according to plan and the panic was unfounded. For this dispute, the "arbiters" are millions of Russians who did not vote for "Russia Choice" in the general election.

After the referendum and general election, President Yeltsin told Time magazine: "We must make some amendments to the strategy of continuing democratic reform. We must pay attention to the signals that voters send us. "

So, a new transformation began.

Chernomyrdin 1994, the new Prime Minister of the Russian government, said at the beginning of his appointment in June 1994 that the reform needed to be revised. 1One of the central ideas of President Yeltsin's State of the Union address to the Federal Parliament on February 24, 994 was that in the economic field, it was not allowed to return to the Soviet planned system era and continue the unrestrained "shock therapy". Many analysts believe that this State of the Union address is the president's admission of the bankruptcy of the monetary policy and his authorization to the chernomyrdin administration to formulate a new national economic strategy.

From 65438 to 0994, the government chose an active and steady strategy, the main contents of which are: moderately tight fiscal and financial policies, curbing inflation by economic means, and selectively supporting the most potential sectors in the national economy. In operation, the main task is to reduce the decline in output, and special attention is paid to strengthening the social orientation of reform. The new practice has been determined, but it is an arduous task to eliminate the serious consequences of the reform in the previous two years. The government is treading on thin ice, not seeking speed, but seeking gradual progress. From 1994 to 1997, the domestic situation was basically stable and the economy gradually recovered.

What's the situation in Russia in recent years and the living conditions of ordinary people? 1996 At the end of autumn, sociologists from the All-Russian Social Opinion Research Center conducted a questionnaire survey among 2430 people in China, and the results may be representative.

Q: How is life?

5 1% respondents replied: "Life is not easy, but it is tolerable." 12% of people said; "Everything is normal and passable." But13 of the respondents thought it was unbearable.

Q: What is the material supply?

-84% of the respondents said that almost all kinds of food can be bought in their urban and rural areas; 76% people said that there is no shortage of clothes and shoes in the free market; 78% people said that as long as they have money, they can buy all kinds of durable goods and daily necessities needed for family life.

Q: Are you satisfied with your life?

-Few people are completely satisfied (only 3%); Most of them are satisfied with their lives, accounting for 9%; Partially satisfied and partially dissatisfied1/3; Most of them are dissatisfied, accounting for 31%; 23% people are completely dissatisfied with their present life.

Q: What are you most worried about?

The survey results show that people are most worried about five major issues: wage arrears, pensions and subsidies; Increased criminal offences; Economic crisis, industrial and agricultural production decline; Rising prices; The unemployment rate has risen.

1997 shows that the domestic political situation is relatively stable, there is no big fluctuation, the economy has stopped sliding and started to grow weakly, the society is relatively peaceful, and the public security situation tends to improve.

From 65438 to 0997, President Yeltsin put forward the task of realizing national harmony and reconciliation. To this end, he advocated the establishment of a dialogue and consultation mechanism between various forces. The president, the government and the opposition leaders eased relations, discussed problems and resolved contradictions. On June+10, 5438, the consultation mechanism attended by the president, the prime minister and the chairmen of the upper and lower houses of parliament was launched, which successfully solved the disputes between the government and the opposition and two government crises many times.

Economically, the important achievement of 1997 is that the economy has stopped falling and rebounded for the first time since the 1990s. 1997 GDP increased by 0.4%, industry increased by 2%, and grain output reached more than 90 million tons. According to the announcement of Russian Prime Minister chernomyrdin in August, 1998+ 1997, compared with the economic indicators of 1996, the growth rate of GDP is 1.2%. Industrial output value increased by 3.2%, and commercial retail sales increased by 3.9%. The annual inflation rate was 1 1%, which was 50% lower than 1996. There is another important thing: when we entered 1998, we repaid the wages owed to the employees in the budget distribution department.

On the one hand, Premier chernomyrdin believes that many achievements of 1997 are still below the expected target, and there are still many problems in the economy. On the other hand, he is full of confidence in 1998. He said that during the period of 1998, the GDP growth rate will be above 2%, and the annual inflation rate will remain in the range of 5% ~ 8%.

1998, 17 In February, President Yeltsin put forward Russia's "revitalization strategy" including five aspects: (1) What is important is that all the authorities should make concerted efforts to innovate in Qi Xin, and Russia should not be a place of endless arguments; (2) The new strategy also requires stable economic development. Russia needs high-quality economic development, large-scale investment, updating production bases, popularizing new technologies and reducing costs; (3) To fundamentally change the work of power organs, power organs should be modern and efficient; (4) Reform should be promoted in all regions without exception; (5) The authorities and society should trust each other.

It is an important and gratifying change for the economy to stop declining and start growing from declining and negative growth. However, some analysts believe that we should not be overly optimistic, and many difficulties cannot be overcome quickly, because the current weak growth is mainly achieved by expanding production by small enterprises and joint ventures, while the basic industries supporting the domestic economy have not yet got rid of the downward trend of production; It is impossible to increase investment substantially, but for the Russian economy, which is basically extensive, it needs to inject a lot of money to get rid of the crisis and achieve recovery. It is necessary to change the unreasonable and abnormal economic structure and accelerate the development of agriculture, food industry and light industry; But also change the internal structure of the industry to meet the needs of the market. However, structural adjustment is a long-term and complicated task, which cannot be accomplished overnight.

Thailand used to be an agricultural country 1960, agricultural income accounts for about 80% of national income, agricultural labor force accounts for 83% of all employment, while industry only

5%, service industry accounts for 12%. It can be seen that Thailand's industrial base is very weak and its starting point is low. In order to join the ranks of industrialized countries as soon as possible

Since 196 1, the Thai government has formulated a series of principles and policies according to the national conditions and economic development in different periods.

Six five-year plans for economic and social development have been formulated as strategies and guiding principles for economic development at different stages.

Since 1960s, Thailand's economy has experienced three stages: import substitution, export orientation and coordinated development. Thanks to policies and measures, Thailand's economy has maintained a high growth rate in the past 20 years, exceeding 8% in the 1960s and 7% in the 1970s. Even during the fifth five-year plan (1982- 1986), which coincided with the economic crisis in western industrial countries, its average annual growth rate reached 4.4%. After 1986, Thailand's economy has made rapid progress, with the growth rate rising from 1987 to 6.3%. At the same time, Thailand made full use of the favorable international economic conditions of low oil price, low interest rate and low exchange rate, seized the opportunity of large-scale foreign investment from Japan, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea and other countries and regions, vigorously promoted the strategy of attracting foreign investment, and implemented the economic policy of deregulation and gradual liberalization, which made the Thai economy enter a period of rapid growth for four consecutive years.

General situation of Thai economy

Since 1990s, due to the Gulf War and domestic political situation, Thailand's economic growth rate has declined, but the average annual growth rate is still around 8%. With the development of manufacturing and service industries, especially the rise of tourism, Thailand's economic structure has undergone major changes, from an agricultural country that used to export agricultural products to a newly industrialized country. From 65438 to 0995, Thailand's per capita income has exceeded $2,500, and the World Bank has listed Thailand as a middle-income country. At present, the main problems are the overload of existing infrastructure, the lack of engineers and technicians, and the backwardness of education and science and technology, which have affected economic growth. From 65438 to 0996, Thailand's economic growth rate dropped sharply, reaching only 6.9%, the lowest level in the past 13. In particular, the decline in foreign trade was serious, and the growth rate plummeted to below 1%. The current account deficit accounts for 8.3% of GDP, and the inflation rate has also risen to 6.2%.

In the fiscal year of 1996, 5 1 state-owned enterprises invested 258 billion baht in infrastructure such as transportation, communication, housing, electricity and water supply.

1996 fiscal year, the total national fiscal expenditure was 777.3 billion baht.

4. Industry overview

(1). General situation of agriculture

80% of Thailand's population is engaged in agriculture, enjoying the reputation of "the granary of Southeast Asia", being the only net grain exporter in Asia and a major grain exporter in the world.

One of the exporting countries. Thailand's rice exports rank first in the world, cassava exports rank first in the world, rubber ranks third in the world and jade.

Rice ranks fourth, and the export of fish products is second only to Japan in Asia. Among Thailand 10 export commodities, agricultural products account for 6% of the total export value.

40%。

Up to now, newly developed aquatic products, livestock products, fruits, vegetables and flowers have increasingly become important pillars of Thai agriculture.

At present, Thailand has become the third largest marine fishery country in Asia, and its fishery products have jumped to the fourth place in Thailand's agricultural exports. In aquaculture, chickens

Duck, meat, eggs and other livestock and poultry products can not only meet the domestic market demand, but also be exported more and more. Thailand's exports of frozen chicken, eggs, frozen shrimp and other frozen products have become one of the top 10 exporters in the world.

In addition, Thailand has also made remarkable achievements in the canned fruit and vegetable market, and the canned pineapple in Thailand has now occupied 35% of the world market. Crops in Thailand include rice, rubber and corn.

Agricultural product output statistics

(2). General situation of industry

As a traditional agricultural country, Thailand's economic structure has undergone obvious changes with the rapid development in recent years. Although agriculture still plays an important role in the national economy, the proportion of manufacturing industry in its national economy is expanding day by day. Manufacturing industry has become one of the largest industries and major export industries. A major feature of Thailand's industrialization process is to make full use of its rich agricultural resources to develop food processing and related manufacturing industries. This industrial development model based on agricultural resources has made remarkable achievements in the past 20 years and will play a greater role in the future.

The mining industry in Thailand used to be an important part of the national economy, but with the development of domestic economy and the change of international economic situation in recent years, the status of mining industry in Thailand is declining. As a large foreign exchange company, tin industry has also been greatly affected by the low price in the world market. In addition, the sustained growth of domestic demand has also led to the decline or even shortage of some mineral products exports. The first optimistic oil exploitation in the mining industry. At present, Thailand's main industrial products include clothing, textiles, shoes, motors, electronic products and transportation equipment.

The development momentum of the construction industry will continue in the next few years, but it will not be as rapid as in previous years. Due to the prosperity of the construction industry, there is a shortage in the building materials market, such as cement and steel. At present, it relies on imports to supplement the shortage. In order to improve this situation, the government actively encourages the development of building materials industry, and the supply and demand situation has eased. At present, cement, ceramics and sanitary equipment are developing rapidly.

Statistics of industrial output value

(3) Overview of service industry

Thailand is rich in tourism resources with more than 500 scenic spots. It has always been known as a "smiling country" and attracted many foreign tourists. Therefore, tourism

Industry plays an important role in Thailand's economy because of its huge foreign exchange income. The Thai government has taken many measures to attract tourists, which has increased the number of tourists.

There has been a great increase. The financial industry and other related service industries have also grown steadily.

5. Main economic indicators

Gross domestic product (1996):184.2 billion USD.

GDP growth rate (1996): 6.9%

Per capita national income (1996): $2,700.

Exchange rate (1May 998 1): 1 USD =38.5000 baht.

Inflation rate (1996): 6.2%

Unemployment rate: 2.6%

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