What exactly does the real estate Ponzi scheme mean?

When it comes to the rules of the game in the real estate industry, it is actually a Ponzi scheme. What is a Ponzi scheme? \x0d\ Ponzi scheme is one of the oldest and most common investment schemes, and it is a variant of pyramid scheme. Many illegal pyramid schemes use this trick to collect money. This scam was invented by a speculator named Charles Ponzi. Ponzi scheme, also known as illegal fund-raising and "illegal gold absorption" in China society, is commonly known as the Rat Club in Taiwan Province Province. This is a layered promotion. Participants have to pay a sum of money as the price of joining the club, and the money earned comes from other new participants, not the money earned by the company itself through business. Investors pay online investors by attracting new investors to join the payment, and usually get a return in a short time. However, more people join, the capital inflow is insufficient, the fraud bubble bursts, and the investors in the lowest line will suffer money losses. Examples are: Madoff fraud case exposed in the United States after the outbreak of the financial crisis, Zhao X Mountain endorsement advertising fraud case in Shenyang, China, and so on. \x0d\● The detailed story of Ponzi scheme is like this. \ x0d \ x0d \ Ponzi is an Italian-born speculator who lived in 19 to the 20th century. 1903 immigrated to the United States. 19 19, he tricked investors into investing in a plan that didn't actually exist, promising investors a 40% profit return within three months, and then, as a result, the following "investors" followed suit in large numbers. In a year or so, almost 40,000 Boston citizens became investors in Ponzi's money-making plan like fools, calling this kind of fraud "Ponzi scheme". \x0d\ With regard to Charles Ponzi's plan, you need to understand that at the beginning, it was not a scam ("Ponzi scheme" refers to tricking people into investing in a fictitious enterprise and paying the money of investors who joined later as quick profits to induce more people to fall for it), but later it got out of control. There is no denying that Ponzi is a liar. He lost his first job in America because he gave customers less change and was sent to a prison in Montreal for forging checks. Soon after, he was imprisoned again in the United States, this time because of illegal immigration fraud. However, he came to Boston in 19 18, married a beautiful Italian girl and tried to turn over a new leaf. This is the beginning of all the trouble. Ponzi accidentally discovered that postal money orders that can be bought in Spain for only one cent can be exchanged for six cents after being brought to the United States for exchange rate reasons. So I realized that selling universal postal coupons was a good deal. So Ponzi asked a friend in his hometown to send him a large number of postal coupons, and then he sold them to make money. He paid off his first debt with the money he really earned. He quickly caught people's attention and attracted investors. But then the problems in his plan became more and more obvious. The postal coupon market, more precisely, the total amount of postal coupons in circulation is not large enough. By July of 1920, he can earn 175000 pounds a day. To make all investors profitable, there must be 65.438+600 million stamps in circulation. The fact is that only 30,000 stamps are in circulation. \x0d\ What about Ponzi? He set up a "stock exchange company" and officially launched his "Ponzi Plan", promising in writing to bring 50% return to investors within 90 days, but verbally he went further and told many people that he could pay 50% interest within 45 days. This means that investors can double their money in 90 days. The initial investors did get such a high return, so more investors flocked to them. People are crazy, and money keeps coming in like lightning. At most, he attracted more than $6,543.8+0,000 in a week (don't forget that this was at 654.38+0,920). In the summer of \ x0d \ 1920, Ponzi lived a rich life. He lived in a villa with 20 rooms, bought countless expensive suits, owned dozens of crutches inlaid with gold, and bought countless enviable precious jewels for his wife. \x0d\ but not for long. On July 20th of that year, The Boston Globe took the lead in challenging his return plan, and the authorities immediately investigated him and asked him to stop accepting new investments from investors before the investigation was completed. At the same time, investors with keen sense of smell began to queue up to redeem their investments, just as they queued up to accept their investments. Due to the fragile capital chain, the farce came to an abrupt end, and Ponzi plan went bankrupt completely. On August 13, he was formally arrested by the Boston authorities. \x0d\ After investigation by the authorities, it was found that in a short period of one year, 40,000 people bought the Ponzi Plan for more than US$ 65.438+0.5 million (equivalent to US$ 65.438+0.4 billion today). These funds can be used to buy 65.438+0.8 billion legendary postal money orders. It took the authorities eight years to liquidate, and investors who had no time to flee finally got back about 37% of their original investment after eight years. The investment farce directed by Ponzi officially ended. \ x0d \1920 In August, he was charged with 86 counts of fraud. Of course, he went to prison. But strangely, he still has a large number of fans who are indignant at his imprisonment. He was later deported to Brazil. In the Italian immigrant community, to some extent, he is still a hero. Because of the scope and courage of Ponzi scheme, his name has become synonymous with world-famous schemes. \x0d\ \x0d\● What is the "China model" \x0d\ \x0d\ Under the gloomy financial and economic situation in the world, it seems that only China's economy stands out. Some leftists in China even published articles on the Internet, claiming that the global financial crisis proved that the western free market economy and democratic system are different, and only the "China model" is the future development model of the world. \ x0d \ x0d \ Gao Yu, a former deputy editor-in-chief of Economic Weekly magazine and a famous journalist, believes that the so-called China model cannot last long. She said: "The China model cannot be imitated by any country because it takes advantage of the demographic dividend left by Mao Zedong. Low human rights, low wages, low welfare, such a dividend of population savings, let China's economy take off. And such a dividend will not be available in the future. " Forbes magazine also poured cold water on the over-optimism that pervaded China. According to an article in Forbes magazine, after careful analysis, you may come to the conclusion that China's economy today is very similar to that of Japan, where the stock market and real estate market crashed 20 years ago. There has been an upsurge of speculative loans and bids in China. If the price plummets, there will be an unpayable hell. \ x0d \ x0d \ ● "Bubble" is a good name, and its essence is Ponzi scheme \ x0d \ x0d \ American Forbes magazine quoted Victor Shi, an expert on China at Northwestern University, as saying that China's economy is actually "Ponzi scheme, which is led by the Bank of China and can also print money." \ x0d \ x0d \ is like a typical case in the later period of rapid economic growth. It seems that many investors in China no longer take rental income as a consideration in investing in real estate. They pursue greater unreasonable value. In the center of Beijing, the price of office buildings is $400 per square foot. Although a large number of office buildings are not rented out at all, more office buildings are under construction. Its leaders are state-owned enterprises in China, including banks and insurance companies. \ x0d \ x0d \ The Wall Street Journal pointed out that since 2003, there have been endless comments about the imminent collapse of China's real estate bubble, but house prices have been soaring, which slowed down in 2008 and soared to the sky again in 2009. In some cities, house prices have surpassed the hottest time in 2007, and many people with multiple houses have jumped from poor to rich, just like what was popular in Shenzhen in the early days of the establishment of China stock market. \x0d\ \x0d\ Do you still remember the slogan most advocated by the media including CCTV when the Shanghai Composite Index approached 6000 points in 2007? "You don't manage money, money ignores you", which is a story that is so close to our people! Of course, the final explanation is just "asset bubble". In fact, the mainstream media has changed the title of "scam" and beautified it into a "bubble". "Fake" needs designers, and "bubbles" can be blown up by ordinary people themselves, but the carrier of evil is completely different! \x0d\ \x0d\● The real estate "Ponzi scheme" is in full swing ... \ x0d \ \ x0d \ Various copies of "Ponzi Plan" have appeared all over the world. In China, similar scams are common and reported by many media. But few people would have thought that everyone actually participated in this Ponzi scheme game to some extent. This game is still in full swing in China real estate market. \x0d\ China's real estate investment has a strong color. On the one hand, China people are addicted to "getting property income"; on the other hand, no one thinks that they will be the last taker of the game of "delivering parcels". "Property income" includes two kinds, one is the cash flow income brought by property, such as rent; There is also the premium income brought by asset appreciation. For most investors at present, chasing asset premium is the main purpose. Because from the perspective of the ratio of rent to house price, investing in housing is obviously not as cost-effective as buying stocks or bonds. \x0d\ The process of real estate appreciation, the essence of which is that the income of the former investors should be paid by the latter buyers. If this process continues, then the last person to take over will pay for all the previous participants. Of course, if the game goes on endlessly, then everyone will benefit. Unfortunately, house prices can't just go up and down, and the last buyer will be the last buyer of a round of games. \x0d\ This process is actually a "Ponzi scheme" of real estate. \x0d\ Professor Maochu Zhong, a professor of economics at Nankai University, believes that modern economic activities have the characteristics of Ponzi scheme and can be called Ponzi economic activities. Its characteristic is to design an investment activity that claims to get high returns, attract a large number of investors to participate in it, and use the funds of late investors to pay the high returns of early investors, and go on and on until the follow-up funds are unsustainable or investors' confidence is no longer there, and the whole system collapses rapidly. For the real estate market, the so-called "investors" can raise or lower the price through speculation, so that everyone can feel the change of wealth. \x0d\ From this point of view, if policy makers, banks, real estate developers and property buyers jointly construct a market scene that only rises but does not fall, and the expected return is very high, then it will form a "Ponzi scheme" in which the investors behind will continue to pay for the sellers in front. \x0d\ As land is scarce, housing can be financed, which can easily make real estate an investment activity with high expectations, and the government can dig (tax and land auction), which will prompt the government to actively promote housing prices. China's real estate market is obviously more suitable for this kind of "Ponzi economic activity", and participants are more likely to become victims of "Ponzi scheme". \x0d\ The population structure of China is determined by historical reasons. After 50 s and 60 s, because the state provided non-commercial housing, most of them owned their own commercial housing after 70 s. After 80' s and 90' s, because they are all only children and are of marriageable age, the old house where their parents lived generally can't meet their requirements, so they decided to become the main participants of Ponzi scheme (so-called hard demand for housing). Based on the demand of their children to buy a house, their parents have also been drawn into this "house buying game". As a result, the basis of the "pyramid" of real estate housing demand appeared. \x0d\ Therefore, the future housing price trend depends more on the money supply and indirectly affects the demand for real estate housing. From the experience, the government often does not take the initiative to puncture the asset bubble, but the market cannot support the sustained rise of prices forever. This means that the Ponzi scheme of housing prices will end sooner or later, and the time is determined by the money supply. When money is tight, the game often ends. \x0d\● The derivative product of Ponzi scheme in China \x0d\\x0d\ In fact, the existing pension insurance system model in China is itself a Ponzi scheme, and the latter pays the former. As early as 2003, when China's share-trading reform era, that is, the policy of reducing state-owned shares to supplement old-age insurance, the black hole of old-age insurance fund has been fully reflected. \x0d\ There is a Ponzi game condition directly in economics. In fact, the general issuance of national debt is a Ponzi scheme. As long as debt is placed in the infinite future, debt becomes net profit. Mathematically, it can be written as limit _ {s right arrow infinite} exp {-r (s)} k (s).