How is the development of commercial real estate in Guangzhou?

1. Overview of commercial real estate supply and demand in Guangzhou

1. Commercial real estate supply and demand are booming

In the past two years, Guangzhou’s large commercial plazas, five-star hotels, services The construction of commercial real estate projects such as sexual apartments, office buildings, and professional markets continues. Many large real estate developers in Guangzhou are committed to developing commercial real estate projects.

According to the Guangzhou shop transaction data released by the Guangzhou Municipal Land and Housing Administration Bureau at the end of 2004: From 1998 to the first half of 2004, the supply of shops in Guangzhou’s Laoba District was 2.625 million square meters, and the transaction volume was 2.625 million square meters. 2.2196 million square meters, the gap between supply and demand is 410,000 square meters. Since 2001, Guangzhou shops have shifted from "supply exceeding demand" to "demand exceeds supply". This phenomenon became more obvious in the first half of 2004.

2. The market has obviously turned hotter

In the first quarter of 2004, the supply of shops in the original eight districts of Guangzhou was 82,900 square meters, but the transaction volume reached 133,300 square meters. In terms of price, from 1998 to 2002, the selling price of shops has been fluctuating slightly and steadily at the level of 13,000 yuan/square meter, and then fell sharply in 2003. The main reason is that in 2003, a large number of shops in Dongshan District sold wholesale. This has lowered the overall average transaction price of shops. By the first quarter of 2004, the overall price of shops in Laoba District had risen to 16,489 yuan/square meter, and the shop market was obviously heating up.

2. Distribution of commercial areas in Guangzhou

3. Introduction to businesses and commercial projects in each business district:

1. Shangxiajiu business district:

(1) Liwan Plaza: Liwan Plaza has an operating area of ??140,000 square meters and is divided into a south atrium and a north atrium. Area C (areas C and D are the south atrium) adjacent to Shangxiajiu Pedestrian Street is a comprehensive shopping mall with a price of about 150 yuan per square meter. The rent on the third floor of Areas A and B in the north is relatively higher than that of the south atrium, which is used as a jewelry and crystal wholesale market. Area E, which connects the north and south atriums, is also positioned as a professional jewelry and crystal market. Prices in this area are relatively low, at 38-40 yuan per square meter.

(2) Minghui Mall: Minghui Mall is a model mall designated for tourism in Xiajiu Road Commercial Pedestrian Street. The brands that have settled in Minghui include: Weiwen, Jiangnan Buyi, Moon Island, etc. The brands that will soon be stationed include : McDonald's, ampm, Cobbler's Family, Laersdam, Floren, Crocodile Shirt, Joyamp; Peace, Oriental Glasses, Guoxin Communications, etc. The street-facing shops on the first floor are priced from NT$1 million each.

2. Beijing Road Business District:

(1) Guangbai New Wing: Guangbai New Wing is located on the west side of Guangzhou Department Store Building on Beijing Road, with a total area of ??about 6,500 square meters. The shopping mall has a total area of ??45,000 square meters, a total height of 27 floors, and the tower is an office building. In addition, there is a four-story parking lot with about 500 parking spaces. Grandbai New Wing "Charming City" shopping mall has a fashion theme. The mall adopts an independent store design. The 1st to 9th floors are parallel to Grandbai. It has a fully open shop layout and is managed and managed by Grandbai. It has special Chinese and Western restaurants. Game room, Internet cafe, etc. The rental price is 55 yuan/square meter.

(2) Mingsheng Plaza: Mingsheng Plaza is located opposite the Guangzhou Department Store Building on Beijing Road, Guangzhou, with a total construction area of ??140,000 square meters. It is a multi-functional mall integrating shopping, entertainment, catering, leisure, culture and other functions. The integrated commercial building has a nine-story commercial area of ??70,000 square meters, a 20-story office building of 40,000 square meters, and a three-story parking lot of 30,000 square meters. There are 600 parking spaces. The rental price is around 100 yuan/m2/month.

3. Huanshi Road Business District:

(1) Youyi Store: The main store of Youyi Store located on Huanshi East Road has its own business area of ??20,000 square meters and sells 8 products. Thousands of varieties. In the ongoing upgrading and renovation project of "improving taste through renovation and accelerating development through renovation", Youyi Mall has taken the initiative to extend its "left and right hands" - the "left hand" connects the sky corridor with the World Trade Plaza, and the "right hand" initiated the "westward expansion". "Project" is connected to Baiyun Hotel and Park Plaza buildings to create a trinity of international boutique shopping circles with Guangzhou Youyi Huanshi East Main Store as the center.

(2) La Park Plaza: The high-end boutique mall La Park Plaza is located next to the Baiyun Hotel on Huanshi East Road, and is closely connected with the famous five-star Garden Hotel, four-star Baiyun Hotel, Friendship Store and World Trade The central shopping mall together constitutes the top high-end brand shopping and leisure business district in Guangzhou. La Park Plaza is currently the high-end shopping mall in Guangzhou that gathers the largest number of the world's top brands, including: Louis Vuitton, Hermès, Prada, Dior, Fendi, Celine, Burberry, Hugo Boss, Lanvin, Ermenegildo Zegna, Givenchy, Polo Ralph Lauren, Versace, Charriol, Tommy Hilfiger, Damp; G and Versus, etc. Among the many top brands, Hermès, Prada, Celine, Hugo Boss, Versace and D&G are opening stores in Guangzhou for the first time. In addition, Park Plaza also has a number of image stores with new design concepts, including: Louis Vuitton, Dior, Prada, Ermenegildo Zegna and Givenchy, etc. Because it is connected to Youyi Store, the two form a high-end clothing boutique in Guangzhou. Therefore, the rental price of La Park Plaza has increased, reaching 1,800 yuan/month per square meter on the first floor, which is higher than the average rental price of 1,100-1,200 yuan/month per square meter for shops in the same location. Nearly half as high.

4. Tianhe Business District:

(1) Teem City: Teem City Plaza has a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan, a construction area of ??160,000 square meters, and a business area of ??100,000 square meters. There are 7 floors above ground, 3 floors underground, and an open-air square in the north covering an area of ??more than 3,000 square meters. The Teem Plaza project is a "trinity" building - consisting of Teem City (shopping mall), office building (east tower), and apartment hotel (west tower).

Teem City was completed and opened on February 9, 1996. It is the first and most successful modern large-scale mall in Guangzhou that integrates shopping, food, entertainment, leisure and services. shopping center. The occupancy rate reaches 100%, and it has become a new hotspot for shopping and leisure for citizens and a new tourist attraction for tourists. Since 2001, the annual rent of its shopping malls has stabilized at around 200 million to 300 million yuan.

After ten years of operation, Tianhe City, which integrates shopping, sightseeing, food, entertainment, leisure, business, advertising, information, exhibitions, sports and other functions, is known as "China's No. 1 Mall" "Currently, Tianhe City's daily average passenger flow has reached 300,000, and the highest daily passenger flow has reached 810,000. Tianhe City's annual turnover is approximately 4 billion yuan. It has not only promoted the prosperity of surrounding areas, but also created a large number of successful business owners. The "Tee City Effect" brought about by the success of Teem City has spread throughout the province and even the country, making it a symbol of Guangzhou's modern commerce, the first choice place for citizens and tourists for shopping, sightseeing and leisure, and has become a research center for relevant departments and news media. The target has become the target for peers to catch up.

(2), Zhengjia Plaza

Zhengjia Plaza, known as the largest shopping mall in China and the largest in Asia by single area, is located in Guangzhou, with a total land area of ??5.41 square meters, with a total construction area of ??396,000 square meters. The commercial area under construction is 280,000 square meters; the long-term plan is to build a 48-story office building and a 30-story serviced apartment with a construction area of ??116,000 square meters. From the day of construction, Grandview has played a good role in promoting the land surrounding the project. After opening on January 15, 2005, although there were less than 10 shops open on the first day, it still attracted widespread attention from the industry and society.

Located on the seventh floor of Zhengjia Plaza in the central axis of Guangzhou city, more than a thousand business giants have joined it. It is the largest CEPA zero-tariff trade zone in Guangzhou, and some have entered the domestic market for the first time. flagship international brand. There are Grade A office buildings and five-star international hotel apartments in the east and west towers of the square respectively.

In addition, the mall also has a 10,000-square-meter indoor Disney-style playground, a Venetian floating restaurant, a musical fountain exhibition, an aquarium, a Children's R Us, Lingnan Style Street and other leisure and dining venues. Grandview Plaza takes experiential shopping as its theme, adopts a theater-style commercial space layout, and has a designed daily customer flow of 800,000. It is a super-large shopping mall that integrates shopping, leisure, entertainment, catering, fitness, and business.

4. Guangzhou Commercial Real Estate Development Trend

On December 11, 2004, China’s commercial retail industry was fully opened to the outside world, and more and more international businesses began to enter the Chinese market. As a southern metropolis, Guangzhou will become the first choice for international businesses and local businesses to compete for the market. Therefore, Guangzhou's commercial real estate will face huge opportunities in 2005. Taken together, we believe that there will be the following development trends:

1. The process of commercial real estate development companies getting stronger has intensified

In 2005, with the gradual implementation of various domestic commercial real estate control policies, especially the increase in real estate credit thresholds and the "Urban Commercial Networks" The Planning Regulations will be promulgated soon, which will restrict the blind development of commercial real estate to a certain extent.

After the threshold for commercial real estate is raised, many small companies with no or weak development capabilities will be eliminated. At the same time, the development concentration of large and powerful companies will be greatly improved. For example, R&F Group has nearly ten The development of this commercial project will quickly establish its position as a strong commercial real estate company in Guangzhou, improve the blindness of commercial real estate investment and development, and further improve the level of commercial real estate development.

2. Guangzhou’s commercial real estate market will welcome more foreign customers

With China’s commercial retail industry fully opening up to the outside world on December 11, 2004, China’s commercial market is attracting more foreign investors. More and more international businesses are paying attention and looking for commercial real estate projects suitable for business development, which has become the basis for many domestic and foreign businesses to expand their scale and occupy the market.

As the gateway to South China, Guangzhou has unparalleled appeal in this regard: in 2005, Guangzhou will become an important position for the further expansion of foreign commercial retail industry into China, and the demand for commercial real estate will further expand. Since most of these businesses are well-known internationally, the selection criteria for commercial properties will be more stringent, and projects with good property structure applicability and superior locations will become sought after, which will also promote the development of Guangzhou's commercial real estate from another aspect. higher level development.

3. Community commerce is booming

In 2005 and in the future, Guangzhou’s community commerce will show great development potential: with community-based businesses and relatively concentrated neighborhood businesses as the main Leading community commerce will not only promote the prosperity of urban commerce, but also pay more attention to the construction of commercial and life service facilities that meet the daily needs of ordinary people.

For example, the neighborhood businesses in Junjing Garden, Galaxy Bay, Qifu New Village, and Lijiang Garden have become successful examples of community business and have received unanimous praise from the industry. It can be expected that in Guangzhou, some commercial forms suitable for community business development, including community shopping malls, neighborhood centers and modern life plazas, will develop rapidly and gradually become new highlights in commercial real estate.

4. Long-term income will become the top priority of developers

The success of Guangzhou Teem City is the success of the leasing business, which is mainly based on rent, and has been widely recognized by the industry. Agree. As the rational return of commercial real estate operating models is gradually put in place, there will be more and more such leasing-based operating models, and the proportion will be higher and higher. Developers will increasingly realize that pursuing short-term profits is no longer realistic. , and obtaining reasonable returns and long-term benefits will make market development more orderly.

For example, Guangzhou Tianhe Zhengjia Plaza, which was officially opened at the end of 2004, has a commercial area of ??400,000 square meters. Most of it is leased, which not only facilitates the unified management of developers, but also allows developers to obtain through leasing. long term gains. Another example is the Guangbai New Wing operated by Ling Jun. In addition to the negative 1 and 2 floors being sold, the negative 3 and 1 to 9 floors are all used for leasing operations, which has brought long-term stable income to the developer.

5. Development volume increases and types are diversified

With the prosperity of commercial real estate in Guangzhou, more Guangzhou real estate developers, especially large-scale brand real estate companies, have shifted from pure residential development to The business of commercial properties has been "transformed" and the development of commercial real estate has been stepped up. Therefore, the development volume of commercial real estate in Guangzhou will increase sharply in 2005. At the same time, the development types will also develop towards diversification from the simple development of office buildings, shops and professional markets in the past. , there will be numerous hotels, property apartments, commercial plazas and other projects.

It is reported that Hopson’s high-end commercial real estate project on Yuehua Road is stepping up construction; Poly Group’s Poly International Plaza, positioned as a super-A office building next to the Pazhou Convention and Exhibition Center, has also laid the foundation stone and started construction in 2006. It will be put into use in 2018; Swire Group has a commercial project with an investment of 4 billion yuan and more than 200,000 square meters started in Tianhe, Guangzhou; Huahua World, a large comprehensive shopping mall in Dongpu, with a total construction area of ??270,000 square meters, is currently under construction ; Hopson Chuangzhan will also launch hundreds of thousands of square meters of store area in 2005. There are also many pieces of commercial land in Zhujiang New Town that have been requisitioned by major real estate developers. R&F Group alone has acquired seven pieces of commercial land in Zhujiang New Town; in addition, there are also Urban Construction Group, Times Development Group, China Shipping Group, Lixun Industrial Co., Ltd., etc. The store is being launched or will soon be launched on the market. It can be seen that many commercial projects will be launched in 2005, and product types will be diversified.

6. "Siamese malls" will become the development trend of commercial real estate in Guangzhou

Guangzhou already has the "Eastern Connection" air corridor of Friendship Mall and World Trade Plaza, the "Western Expansion" and Baiyun Hotel The "commercial merger model" of the group buildings and La Park Plaza is connected to create a trinity of international boutique shopping circles with Guangzhou Youyi Huanshi East Main Store as the center, and has achieved good commercial results.

At present, the relevant commercial departments have proposed the strategic concept of "joining hands" with the two major shopping malls on the central axis of Guangzhou's new city, Teem Plaza and Grandview Plaza, to form the largest conjoined mall in the country. Although It is still in the approval stage and has not been officially implemented. However, from the perspective of market prospects and business district creation, this concept undoubtedly reveals that a "conjoined mall" will become a new trend in the development of commercial real estate in Guangzhou.

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Dongguan office buildings have more than 100,000 vacant offices Rents in the central area of ??square meters have collectively fallen

As early as last year, with the increase in the number of office buildings in the central CBD areas such as Yuanmei Plaza, Huakai Plaza, and First International Phase 2, people generally paid attention to the following issues: Will excessive office building sales cause a bubble in the Dongguan office market? At the beginning of 2006, the rental prices of office buildings in the central area showed a collective downward trend. Is this a lack of stamina in the office market or a leasing bottleneck?

The number of office buildings in the central area is the highest in the city

When talking about the future trend of office buildings in Dongguan’s central area, Chen Minqiang, the person in charge of Hefu Huihuang, who is responsible for the Hongxi Center project, said in an interview , Guangzhou and Shenzhen did not expect that the office market in Tianhe and Huaqiang today would be so prosperous more than ten years ago. Similarly, the current administrative center of Dongguan was a wasteland five years ago. Many people do not believe in the appreciation of office buildings. The reason is that there is uncertainty about the future development of the city. A large part of the reason why buyers should take action to purchase office buildings is that they will compare the locations where the office buildings are located. Buyers will take a wait-and-see attitude before taking shape. At present, the land resources for office buildings in the central area are very limited. Judging from the location, the future direction of the area should be quite clear.

The facts are indeed as Chen Minqiang said. In 2005, office buildings in the central area did not slow down the sales pace because of more homogeneous products. On the contrary, due to the huge potential for appreciation, they still became A hot product in the Dongguan real estate market.

According to statistics from the Dongguan Municipal Statistics Bureau in the first half of last year, as of the first half of last year, the construction area of ??office buildings in Dongguan City reached 193,022 square meters, of which 63,912 square meters were newly started this year; while last year The office buildings approved for pre-sale by the Municipal Construction Bureau are distributed in Guancheng District and Nancheng District. There are also a small number of office buildings in Zhangmutou, Liaobu, Dalingshan and Humen. The number of office buildings in the central area has reached the highest level in the city.

From this point of view, the office market situation in the central area seems to be very good. However, judging from the recent leasing situation of the office market, this bright market seems to be mixed with some dangers of dark clouds. First International, this property is located in the core area of ??office buildings in the central district of Dongguan. The current market rental price is between 25 yuan and 35 yuan per square meter, with the lowest falling to 18 yuan per square meter. Is this kind of price an isolated phenomenon, or is it a common level in the Dongguan office market?

Bei Haibin, the sales manager of First International, said that the rental and sale prices of office buildings mostly depend on the tenants. It is a recognized fact in the industry that the current volume of office buildings in the central area is large, especially that of First International. The huge size is the reason why office buildings cannot achieve a boom in occupancy in the short term. Therefore, many tenants have to lower their rents to increase their chances of leasing.

Office building sales have not been affected

Currently, the construction of office buildings in the central area is still in full swing. The third phase of First International will be launched to the market this year. Not only First International, but also the planned buildings in the central area Many commercial properties will also be launched this year and next. Will this situation put greater pressure on office sales in central areas?

Lei Feifei, manager of the R&D Department of Commercial Center Development Co., Ltd., said that Dongguan’s business upgrading itself is a process. Nancheng is a new district, and it will take a certain amount of time to create a new business environment. As the central district With the improvement of residential and commercial facilities and the prosperity of the business circle, rents in the Dongguan office market will naturally increase. "At present, the sales of our Baian Center are very satisfactory and are basically coming to an end. You can buy office buildings at the same price as residential buildings. This is unimaginable in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The low price threshold of office buildings still has a huge impact on investors." Due to its attractiveness and the unreplicable resources of office buildings in the central area, the current low rents of office buildings will not have an impact on the overall sales.

Since the launch of Central Plaza last year, sales have been stable. According to Lan Zun, the person in charge of Shilian Real Estate, at the beginning of this year, there were only a few high-rise and large-sized units left in Central Plaza. These units were also among the most expensive products in the same period. What the developers did not expect was that these units 12 units of the product were sold in 3 days.” From this, it is not difficult to see that Dongguan investors are not generally fond of central district office buildings. The environmental advantages of central district office buildings are still its biggest selling point.

In addition, the continued sales of shops last year has gradually stabilized the supply and demand relationship of shops. The return on investment of shops has remained between 5% and 6%, while the average price of office buildings at this stage is 3800-4300. Yuan/square meter, the rent ranges from 35-45 yuan/square meter, and the return rate is generally around 6%-12%, which is higher than the return on investment of shops; and compared with residential buildings, office tenants are relatively stable. Rent payments are relatively on time. Regardless of rent or sales price, Dongguan's office buildings are at a relatively low price, and there is considerable room for growth.

Vacancy is a big problem

The prosperity of the office market benefits from Dongguan’s large-scale urban construction and the continuous acceleration of urbanization process. It is also closely related to the adjustment of Dongguan’s industrial structure. However, the explosive growth for two consecutive years is undoubtedly a difficult test for Dongguan's newly grown market that still needs to be cultivated.

It is understood that from the data released by the Dongguan Housing Association’s 2005 real estate market monitoring and early warning system, the vacant office space in Dongguan City was 102,600 square meters, compared with 17,800 square meters at the end of 2004. The number of meters increased by 84,800 square meters, an increase of nearly five times. However, the vacant area in this statistical data is only the data in the pre-sale system, and there are still many areas that have been sold but not rented out and are not included in the calculation.

Moreover, the centralized layout of office buildings is very obvious. Most of the newly developed office buildings are concentrated in the central area, and most of them are along Wandai Avenue and Hongfu Road.

Xu Yinzhou, deputy dean of Guangdong Business School, said in an interview with reporters that based on what he learned from several in-depth visits to Dongguan, it is not easy for Dongguan’s development focus to shift from manufacturing to trade and circulation. The differentiated development of the district's economy has also had a certain impact on its formation of an overall concentrated business environment.

After a development cycle of about two years, many office buildings have been erected. The bright-looking office buildings have become a scenic spot in Dongguan City. Most of these office buildings have good sales performance, especially In the early days, for the Dongguan market, office buildings achieved enviable success when they started to be sold in batches. But now, the development cycle has reached a juncture, and the leasing market for these investment products is not as hot as people expected. In this way, the office market It has fallen into a cooling-off period, and investors are holding on to the sidelines because they cannot see the prospect of profit.

Highlighting differentiation may be a good way to resolve vacancies

Perhaps lowering rents is a solution to the vacancy problem, but from a regional perspective, increasing the business district atmosphere in the central area is the most necessary at the moment In the interviews, it has become the most common voice of developers to strengthen government planning and solve the functional differentiation between regions.

The growth of the central area cannot rely on one or two developers. It also requires the government to lay out the overall plan and strengthen coordination. If it only plans and constructs and ignores follow-up matters, without certain scientific guidance, the growth of this area will also be limited. will slow down, then the core advantages of the central area will be out of the question.

Of course, under such circumstances, developers should keep a clear mind and not rush into making more office products of the same type in a certain area. This will inevitably lead to vicious competition. Instead, hard work on internal skills should be It is the most important thing for developers to do after keeping a clear head. Develop new products, highlight differentiation and be responsible for the investment environment of the entire Dongguan office market. This is also what Dongguan urgently needs for the healthy development of the real estate industry.