On the Stock Index and the Return on Investment

There are so many concepts about the stock index and the return on investment

If novice investors don't learn them, it will be difficult to understand what they mean in actual communication. Here, I would like to share some information about the stock index for your reference.

Stock index and investment income

The stock index is a direct proportional function of the market value of the index portfolio, and its fluctuation range is the return rate of this portfolio. However, in the calculation of the stock index, the transaction cost of the stock is not deducted, so the actual income of the shareholders will be less than the fluctuation range of the stock index (the fluctuation range of the stock index is the maximum investment return rate of the index portfolio).

There is a proverb that is often circulated in the stock market, which is called "the bull earns the bear and pays the compensation", that is to say, the stockholders make profits in the bull market and lose money in the bear market. However, if the stockholders are analyzed as an investment as a whole, they may not make profits in the bull market. There are three reasons:

1. If a bull market is reversible, investors will only lose money but not make money. The middle point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange index in China is about 6 points. In the bull market that appeared in 1993, the Shanghai Stock Exchange broke through 15 points, and then fell back to more than 3 points in July 1994. In September 1994, the Shanghai stock market rushed to 1 points again, but soon fell below 6 points. Judging from the index operation in recent years, the Shanghai Composite Index always starts from below 6 points, and then returns to 6 points after forming a bull market. It can be said that all bull markets in Shanghai stock market are reversible.

When the Shanghai Composite Index rushes from 6 points to 1, points and returns to its original place, for individual investors, it may make a profit and a loss, and their wealth will be transferred to each other. But for this group of investors, they not only have nothing to gain but also have something to lose. First, no matter at which point, investors need to pay transaction tax and handling fee. The stock index rose from 6 points and then returned to 6 points. For investors as a whole, there is no return on investment except transaction costs. However, the trading volume of Shanghai stock market at this point should account for at least half of the total trading volume. For shareholders, at least half of the fees and transaction taxes are in vain, because the purpose of investing in stocks is to try to get benefits from the rise of stocks. Second, investors paid an extra price for the rights issue and the issuance of new shares. The rights issue and the issuance of new shares are always carried out with reference to the price of the secondary market. The higher the share price in the secondary market, the higher the issue price. When the index returns below 6 points, it is equivalent to a lock-up for the shareholders who issue rights or buy new shares at this point, which is different from the lock-up in the secondary market, because the lock-up in the secondary market is just a change of hands among the shareholders, and there is no loss of funds. However, after the high-priced rights issue or the purchase of new shares, the funds will flow to the listed companies, and this lock-up in the primary market is a huge loss to the shareholders as a whole. For example, when Tsingtao Brewery was issued, the cost per share was about 12.8 yuan, but its net assets per share were only 2 yuan, that is to say, the shareholders only spent 12.8 yuan to buy 2 yuan's net assets, regardless of the later opening price of the stock, the shareholders as a whole spent 12.8 yuan for each Tsingtao Brewery stock. If investors invest in treasury bonds or deposit in the bank with the money from buying a share of Tsingtao Brewery, they can at least get 1.3 yuan's income every year, no matter how bright Tsingtao Brewery is, its annual average income is hard to reach such a high level. Therefore, for a reversible bull market, investors as an investment as a whole, investors only lose money.

2. Even in a big bull market, investors are not necessarily profitable. The fluctuation range of stock index is the return on investment of investors, but this return on investment is nominal, without deducting transaction costs. For some mature stock markets in the west, because their annual turnover rate is generally only about 3%, their transaction costs are generally negligible. In China's stock market, due to the frequent turnover of shareholders, the turnover rate in the last two years is generally around 7%. If the transaction costs are included, the income of shareholders in China is actually a negative number.

in p>1994, the tradable shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets produced nearly 5 billion yuan in after-tax profits for shareholders, but the total turnover of these two stock markets this year was as high as 82 billion yuan. According to the transaction tax of 3% and the handling fee of nearly 4.5% for each unit turnover, shareholders will spend 12 billion yuan in transaction costs. Compared with the income and expenditure, shareholders will also pay 7 billion yuan.

Although the composite index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has risen a lot compared with the base of 1 points at the beginning of counting, according to preliminary estimates, by the end of 1995, listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had only produced 1 billion yuan of after-tax profits for shareholders in the secondary market in five years, while the transaction fees and taxes paid by shareholders at this stage were as high as 2 billion yuan. Compared with 199, although the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are still in a bull market, the shareholders as a whole are losing money, because the returns given by listed companies to shareholders are difficult to offset the expenses of stock trading.

3. If a bull market makes the stock price deviate from its investment value, the profits of shareholders are virtual, and some shareholders' profits are based on the losses of others. In the short-term bull market, the stock market may create an illusion that all shareholders are profitable, but this kind of profit is virtual, because the overall value of stocks is calculated by the transaction price of some stocks. When a stock is traded at a higher price, the market value of some traded stocks will be calculated by the transaction price, and as a result, the book value of shareholders holding such stocks has increased. For example, more than 7% of state-owned shares or legal person shares of listed companies in China are not listed and circulated, but some people often calculate the value of state-owned assets by the market price of shares, and they think that state-owned assets have increased in value after the stock price rises. However, if all the stocks of listed companies are in circulation, it will be difficult for the stock price to be as high as the current stock market because of the sharp increase in the supply of stocks. Therefore, the profit in the stock market can not be calculated by the transaction price of others, but only by the transaction price realized when selling. In addition, when the stock price deviates from its investment value, the profit of some shareholders is based on the loss of other shareholders. If the annual after-tax profit of a stock is .1 yuan and the current one-year savings rate is 1%, the theoretical price of this stock should be 1 yuan. When some investors speculate their prices so wildly that they deviate from their investment value, for example, they speculate their prices from 1 yuan to 5 yuan, and 1 yuan buys the investors sold by 5 yuan to make profits in 4 yuan, but the investors bought by 5 yuan lose money in 4 yuan, because the actual income of this stock is only equivalent to the savings deposit in 1 yuan. Therefore, in the stock speculation, it is generally the return of buying after buying, and the new investors return the old investors.

Look at the stock index with value analysis

The stock price index is the stock index, which is an indicator to describe the changes of the overall price level in the stock market, and is a reference indicator compiled by the stock exchange or financial service institutions to show the changes of the stock market. Due to the volatility of stock prices, investors are bound to face market price risks. It is easy for investors to understand the price changes of a specific stock, but it is neither easy nor annoying to understand the price changes of a variety of stocks one by one. In order to adapt to this situation and need, some financial service institutions make use of their professional knowledge and the advantages of being familiar with the market to compile stock price indexes and publish them publicly as indicators of market price changes. Based on this, investors can test the effect of their investment and use it to predict the trend of the stock market. At the same time, the press, company bosses and even political leaders also use this as a reference index to observe and predict the social, political and economic development situation. Therefore, the stock index is very important, especially for investors.

There are three methods to calculate the stock index: relative method, comprehensive method and weighting method. Three factors should be considered in calculating the stock index: first, sampling; The second is weighting; The third is the calculation program. Because there are many kinds of listed stocks, it is arduous and complicated to calculate the average price or index of all listed stocks, so it is difficult to really predict the accurate stock index, so there is a phenomenon that experts analyze and judge the stock index. Most people use fundamental analysis and technical analysis to analyze stocks, and few people will use value analysis.

1. Fundamental analysis is the measurement of stock index (skeleton)-economic judgment

Fundamental analysis is a thorough analysis of economic data and political situation with the goal of judging the future trend of financial markets. Mainly including: macroeconomic situation, interest rate level, inflation, quality of enterprise and political factors.

(1) From a long-term and fundamental point of view, the trend and changes of the stock market are determined by a country's economic development level and economic prosperity, and the price fluctuation of the stock market also reflects the changes of macroeconomic conditions to a great extent. Therefore, the stock market price is called a barometer of macro-economy.

(2) The rise and fall of interest rates will affect the operating costs of enterprises, which in turn will affect profits, and will also make the stock price rise and fall accordingly.

(3) Inflation has both advantages and disadvantages to the trend of the stock market, which can stimulate the market and suppress the market, but generally speaking, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages, and it will promote the increase of the bubble component of the stock market.

(4) For a specific stock, the main factor that affects its price level lies in the internal quality of the enterprise itself, including a series of factors such as financial status, operation, management level, technical ability, market size, industry characteristics and development potential.

(5) Political reasons that have a direct or indirect impact on the stock market will have a huge and sudden impact on the stock price.

The above five factors, namely fundamental analysis, mostly judge the changing trend of the stock index from the perspective of the real economy. The real economy and stocks (the most typical assets that can increase in value) are inextricably linked. The appreciation of the stock market drives the growth of the real economy. The growth of the real economy promotes the growth of the stock market, and so on, making the economy grow continuously and promoting the development of society. Of course, if we want to prevent the output bubble from bursting, we must make the value-added speed of the stock market roughly synchronized with the real economy, thus forming a new situation of virtually pulling the entity. Otherwise, the soaring stock market will inevitably lead to the bursting of the stock market bubble and have a serious impact on the real economy. Fundamental analysis of the economy (real economy), like the skeleton of the human body, supports the growth of the whole economy, so it can be said that fundamental analysis is a measure of the stock index (skeleton).

2. Technical analysis is the realization (body) of stock index-management tool

Technical analysis refers to the sum of the methods that take market behavior as the research object, judge the market trend and follow the periodic changes of the trend to make trading decisions on stocks and all financial derivatives. Technical analysis method analyzes the trend and predicts the future from the aspects of stock volume, price, time to reach these prices and volume, and space for price fluctuation. At present, K-line theory, wave theory, shape theory, trend line theory and technical index analysis are commonly used.

the purpose of technical analysis is to find the signals of buying, selling and stop loss, and to achieve long-term stable profit in the risk market through fund management. From the perspective of trading practice, the technical analysis method is prior to the basic analysis method, and the technical analysis is more practical in operation. Fundamental analysis is to judge the future trend of financial market, while technical analysis is a management tool (K-line chart, wavy line, morphological line and trend line), which can help investors find buy, sell and stop-loss signals and manage funds.

why is it a management tool? As investors all know, there are many stock analysis softwares in stock trading, such as Straight Flush and Great Wisdom. Through them, we can see the trend of the market and individual stocks, and K-line charts and wavy lines show the shape of stocks for our analysis. Therefore, technical analysis is like a human body, which shows the form of stock trend and completes the realization of stock index.

3. Value analysis is the analysis (soul) of the stock index-marketing analysis

In the commercial society, people do things on the basis of value. Value means more output with less input, and value analysis can judge everything, depending on whether it can be used comprehensively. People are not sure about the stock index, let alone guessing. If we can use value analysis, it is not difficult to judge the level of stock index.

value is the core of marketing research, and the scope of value analysis (marketing analysis) is relatively broad and profound, including macro, meso and micro environment, people's learning, cognition, motivation and psychology, competitors, competitiveness and core competitiveness, communication, interaction, information (product, perception and related party information) and innovation (new product development, new perception formation and new relationship establishment)

based on the value analysis, we can not only judge the trend of the stock index, but also judge how much room there is for the stock index to rise and fall. Because marketing studies the value, we can grasp the value pricing of assets. Taking value as a measure, we should first judge the trend of the market, then judge what industry is the most valuable, and then judge which companies' stocks are valuable and which stocks are of great value, and then decide which stocks to hold, that is, analyze valuable assets. Because the value is constantly changing, it is necessary to make constant judgments, and then decide to buy and sell stocks. For example, when the stock index reached 16 points, the stock index generally bottomed out (the fundamental analysis of the economy was the worst time at that time). Although it may drop to around 1 points (the technical analysis of wave theory is easy to judge), the rise is around 37 points (the value analysis should be made in this position again in China). No one can predict the exact point, but there will never be a fear of heights beyond 2 points. Using the value analysis, it can be concluded that the downside is 6 points, but the upside is 2 points. Therefore, at 16 points, some people boldly buy stocks, and the sellers are reluctant to sell them, so they rebound in this position instead of waiting for a fall of about 1 points before opening positions (there may never be such a safe opportunity). This is a simple value analysis, which is much more important than fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

If fundamental analysis, technical analysis and value analysis are considered in the human body structure, technical analysis represents the body of human body system, fundamental analysis represents the skeleton of human body system, and value analysis represents the soul of human body. For the whole human body system, the three are indispensable. As the soul of the human body, value analysis indicates the thoughts and actions of the whole person and plays a key role in the activities of the whole person, which also shows the core role of marketing analysis in the era of commercial value.

Several famous stock indexes

Stock markets all over the world have their own stock indexes, among which the most famous and representative ones are:

1. Dow Jones Stock Index

Dow Jones Stock Index is the oldest stock index in the world, and its full name is the average stock price. It was compiled in 1884 by Charles Dow, the founder of Dow Jones Company. Its initial stock price average index was compiled by arithmetic average method based on the stocks of 11 representative railway companies and published in Charles. On the Daily Newsletter edited and published by Tao himself. The calculation formula is:

average stock price = sum of prices of selected stocks/number of selected stocks

Since 1887, the average stock price of Dow Jones has been divided into two categories: industry and transportation, among which the average index of industrial stock price includes