Tourism development trend and recovery time

At the beginning of the new year, mankind has cast a shadow and the epidemic is raging. All scenic spots and entertainment projects in various places are temporarily closed. It used to be a tourist season, but now it's all closed. Tourism is facing the most severe test in decades. What is the current situation and future development trend of tourism?

Since the Spring Festival in 2008, the epidemic figures have changed every day. Isolation, masks, disinfection and holidays have made many people's mood fall to the bottom like a "V". In terms of tourism, the number of travel agencies affected by the COVID-19 epidemic has more than tripled compared with the SARS period.

The annual loss of tourism is expected to reach 1 100 million yuan, accounting for 10% of GDP. Many tourism practitioners have gone through the storm to unsubscribe, but they firmly believe that "the V-shaped bottom has arrived", the ice melts and they hope to revive.

Ordinary tourists are also feeling: "Where there are flowers, where there is sunshine on the beach, and where there are people drying vegetables?"

They disappeared from our circle of friends for three months. Foot ban and mask are not the right way to open life. "Many people open various social software to" plant grass "for their next trip.

With the beginning of the national tide of returning to work, people gradually return to their usual lives, and the tourism industry is also eager to prepare for the recovery of various markets.

At present, nearly 2,000 pre-sale products of Meituan, a well-known scenic spot, have been launched, doubling in one week; The search volume of "May 1 ST" hotels increased by 35%, and more than 50% of passengers re-booked their Spring Festival trips;

After more and more scenic spots resumed operation, the queues were crowded and the current limit was opened. ...................

At the same time, Ctrip made statistics on the "recovery scores" of hundreds of destinations through the big data platform "Travel Observer" and released the "Destination Recovery Index Report" (hereinafter referred to as the report).

The recovery index of 40 destinations exceeded 50.

This comprehensive report integrates the recovery data of the global tourism industry in recent years before and after public health and safety incidents, the annual growth scale of the tourism industry, epidemic situation prediction, platform users' search, browsing, ordering, collection and seasonal factors, and then establishes an annual industry recovery prediction model.

According to the results of the model, with the gradual control and stabilization of the epidemic, the industry will start to rise steadily with the control of the epidemic, and start to grow with the arrival of traditional tourist nodes such as May Day and summer vacation, showing an obvious V-shaped trend throughout the year. Even the 202 1 Spring Festival holiday at the end of the year should be expected to reach the highest point of retaliatory rebound.

According to reports, this report is based on the comparative differences of comprehensive epidemic data and corresponding algorithms, and obtains the destination recovery index data. 50 points is a key node. The results show that the recovery index of more than 40 domestic destinations has exceeded 50, showing signs of an early recovery period.

Sanya, Chengdu and Guizhou are among the top three destinations in China's "Desire Index" list, and Shanghai, Xi 'an, Beijing, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Kaifeng, Chongqing, Qingdao, Changsha, Suzhou, Huangshan, Huzhou, Tibet, Shenzhen, Wuyuan and Guangxi are also on the list.

Overseas, in addition to Thailand, Japan and Singapore, countries on the list include Vietnam, Dubai, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Germany, Britain, Canada, Morocco, New Zealand, Italy, South Korea, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Israel and Fiji.

Domestic: The confidence of the first-tier city "Zhou Bianyou" rebounded.

"Theme Tour" has high expectations

Tourism confidence affected by the epidemic may start to pick up from "Zhou Bianyou". The report shows that consumers in first-tier cities such as Beishangguang are looking forward to "Zhou Bianyou", Tianjin, Qinhuangdao, Zhangjiakou, Baoding and Jinan around Beijing; Huzhou, Huangshan, Lishui, Suzhou and Hangzhou around Shanghai;

Macau, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhanjiang and Guilin around Guangzhou rank among the top five in the "Zhou Bianyou" wish destination index. In addition, the wish index of Chengdu and its surrounding Guizhou, Chongqing, Ganzi, Lijiang and Shangri-La rose.

Although the epidemic has not passed, many consumers have begun to yearn for "walking", "enjoying flowers" and "watching the sea". Wuyuan, Luoyang, Dalian, Tibet, Qinghai and other places famous for flowers have the highest wish index; Huangshan, Yangzhou, Yanqing, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia ranked first in the wish index list of "going green"; As the temperature rises, Sanya, Xiamen, Qingdao, Rizhao and Ningbo occupy a dominant position in the list of "popular seaside destinations" in China.

In the list of hot topics, the wish index of "parent-child", "ancient city" and "food" shows a strong momentum. Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Suzhou and Hangzhou are more attractive to parent-child families. "

Xi' an, Kaifeng, Jingzhou, Jincheng and Shenyang, which have the attributes of "Chinese style", rank first among the "ancient city destinations"; Because gourmets who have endured the epidemic for a long time prefer regional cities such as West China and South China, Guangdong, Shanghai, Chengdu, Chongqing and Changsha may welcome a large number of "diners" after the epidemic.

Overseas: "island", "parent-child shopping" and "exotic customs" have become key words.

Since 20 13, the number of outbound tourists and the enthusiasm of "buying in buy buy" in China have been ranked first in the world. It can be seen from the report that although China people are still dormant in the epidemic, their enthusiasm for beaches, shopping and exotic customs cannot be suppressed.

In the list of overseas destinations including "parent-child", "shopping" and "exotic customs", Japan is the first choice, which makes people feel good; Popular destinations such as Singapore, Italy, Britain, Germany, South Korea, Dubai and Canada are close behind.

Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, Fiji and Greece have become the dream beaches that everyone wants to fly to. Morocco, Abu Dhabi, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Israel, Argentina and Serbia occupy a place in the list with "exotic customs".

Seize the opportunity, get ready, wait for the right opportunity and go all out.

According to the statistical bulletin of national economic and social development in, the number of domestic tourists was 6065438+ billion, an increase of 8.4% over the previous year. Domestic tourism revenue was 5725 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 1.7%. According to the original growth forecast, it will exceed 6 trillion this year.

Statistical bulletin on national economic and social development.

As the leading industry of happiness, tourism is duty-bound. This time, affected by the epidemic, everyone's travel demand was only temporarily suppressed. In the long run, the epidemic will eventually pass and the market will eventually start in full swing.

In a short period of time, the repressed tourism demand will increase in retaliation after the outbreak, and the tourism industry will not only be on the right track, but even show a "blowout" situation.

Faced with such a huge potential tourism demand, tourism enterprises need to be full of confidence in the future. Tourism is a highly market-oriented industry. As long as the market demand is restarted, the corresponding tourism economic system can quickly resume operation.

In such a special period, enterprises should seize the hidden opportunities in the trough, make preparations for optimization and upgrading, respond to the comprehensive recovery of the future market, send a positive signal to the tourism market, and establish people's confidence in tourism. Once the wave of travel strikes, you are ready to go all out, and you will naturally be the best in the storm.