Everyone in that city caught a cold.

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This city sneezes all over the world when it catches a cold. It has two strong rivals. Who will be the "thir

Almost know

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This city sneezes all over the world when it catches a cold. It has two strong rivals. Who will be the "third city" of China?

Lookout think tank

A dark horse was born, vying for the "third city" in the country. It is the best province and has great potential.

Twenty years ago, it was twice as big as its heavyweight rival; 10 years ago, it was still plagued by negative factors, and its future was bleak. The whole world doubts whether it can survive. ...

But today, it has stepped into the "GDP Trillion Club" and is likely to become the first provincial "third city" in China with a population of over 10 million.

Since 2000, its GDP has increased as high as 1590%, ranking first in the country. In terms of scale, it surpassed Fuzhou, Hefei and Dalian, and hung up Kunming and Xiamen, enough to kill 70% of the provincial capital cities.

It is Dongguan, the "world factory" of the Pearl River Delta, and is attacking its strongest rival, Foshan, which has two strong areas, Shunde and Nanhai.

South along the coastline of China, from Shandong to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian ... No province's "third city" will be as competitive as Guangdong.

Most provinces are dominated by one city, and the second city is far behind, not to mention the third city. But in Guangdong, Foshan and Dongguan, the strength is bursting.

In 20 18, Foshan's GDP was 993.59 billion, with a growth rate of 5.72%, and Dongguan's GDP was 827.86 billion, with a growth rate of 9. 19%.

Foshan will definitely take the lead in breaking the trillion, but Dongguan has a super momentum. If this growth rate is maintained, Dongguan will catch up with others around 2025.

On the one hand, "Foshan is home-made" and on the other hand, "Dongguan is stuck in traffic, and the world is short of it". When two manufacturing superstars collide, who will win?

Wen | Qi Yihe, Huang Lige

This article is reproduced from WeChat WeChat official account Zhigu Trend (ID: zgtrend). The original article was first published on 201910/0 16, with the title "Hang Xiamen, overtake Hefei, kill 70% of the provincial capital, and the third city, the strongest province in history, is ready to come out", which does not represent the view of a think tank.

1

Foshan and Dongguan, which are secretly competing, have been fighting for the third city of Guangdong for a long time.

The time goes back to 2000.

At that time, the total GDP of Foshan was 95.7 billion, and that of Dongguan was 49 billion, only about half of that of Foshan. No one would have thought that one day Dongguan could actually threaten Foshan.

From 2000 to 20 18, Guangzhou's GDP increased by 86.2%, Foshan by 93.8% and Shenzhen by 1355%. The GDP scale of Dongguan actually increased by 1.590%, surpassing Shenzhen and ranking first in the province.

In the past two years, Foshan and Dongguan have set the strategic goal of entering the "GDP trillion club", which can be said to be on the bar.

You know, Foshan had a glorious past. Shunde and Nanhai under its jurisdiction are the "Four Little Dragons of Guangdong" in the early days of reform and opening up, which are as famous as Dongguan and Zhongshan.

Although both cities are famous for their manufacturing industries, there are obvious differences in development paths and industrial characteristics between the two cities.

There are two biggest differences: one is the degree of economic extroversion, and the other is the proportion of foreign population, which can be described as worlds apart.

Foshan's dependence on foreign trade is 57%, its economy is endogenous, and it enjoys a worldwide reputation.

As one of the birthplaces of Lingnan culture, Foshan's private enterprises are very developed and pragmatic. For hundreds of years, the prosperous manufacturing industry has brought countless glories to Foshan. Representative enterprises include Midea, Country Garden, Galanz and Haitian Ye Wei. "Made in Foshan" sells well all over the world.

Dongguan's dependence on foreign trade was as high as 43.3% at one time, which was greatly reduced after the transformation and upgrading, but it was still as high as 172%, represented by the relocation of OPPO, Vivo and Huawei terminals from Shenzhen.

Dongguan's manufacturing industry is "one town, one product", with a high degree of globalization, mainly focusing on mobile phone production and electronic information. In 20 18, the output of mobile phones in Dongguan was 368 million. For every five smart phones in the world, 1 was produced in Dongguan.

After more than 30 years of processing trade development, Dongguan has formed a perfect industrial chain-complete industrial facilities and sufficient skilled workers. Factories gather here and are deeply integrated into the world industrial chain.

Therefore, once Dongguan catches a cold, the whole world sneezes.

In terms of population, Foshan has a permanent population of 7.9 million and a registered population of 42 1, accounting for more than half. Among the 8.39 million permanent residents in Dongguan, the registered population is only 23 1 10,000, accounting for 27.5%.

According to Dongguan officials, the total population actually managed by the city is about 1, 654,380+00,000.

For this reason, Dongguan has formally put forward a grand plan to become a "mega-city" with a population of 10 million. It is estimated that the resident population will reach 6.5438+0.02 million in 2030.

Dongguan has become one of the most attractive cities in China. According to Baidu map statistics, in the second quarter of this year, Dongguan ranked fourth in the national population attraction list, surpassing Shanghai.

(Source: Baidu map data)

According to the current population planning of Foshan, the permanent population is expected to exceed 8.5 million by 2030, which is obviously not as fast as Dongguan. The population gap between the two will further widen.

In China, where the demographic dividend is gradually decreasing, the battle for population has already started among major cities, attracting population inflows, becoming a big city level and one of the winners in the urban war.

From the perspective of economic stamina and population growth, Dongguan is better and has a broader development prospect.

2

The dispute of "flower exploration" in Guangdong Province should not only look at its own strength, but also look at the "backing" support behind it.

Dongguan is next to Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Over the years, through the role of "world factory", it has formed a very close relationship with the two places, and it can even be said that "you have me and I have you". Huawei's move from Shenzhen to Dongguan is the best example.

Foshan is mainly driven by Guangzhou radiation. In recent years, "Guangzhou-Foshan City" has made good achievements in subway layout and population flow, but the most fatal problem is that Guangzhou's overall urban strategy is to develop eastward, while Foshan is in the west, and its focus cannot be together.

The straight-line distance between Guangzhou and Foshan is only 16 km, which provides natural convenience for Guangzhou and Foshan. Foshan pointed out:

It is necessary to make active use of Guangzhou's advantages in transportation, talents and foreign platforms, strengthen infrastructure interconnection, complementary industrial advantages, ecological environment management and people's livelihood services, and strive to build Chancheng District, eastern Nanhai and northern Shunde into the core areas of Guangfo metropolitan area.

But the reality is awkward: Foshan is in the east and Guangzhou is also running in the east.

In recent years, Guangzhou has been going east to south, building a financial city, a second CBD and a sub-center of the city. With limited resources, it is inevitable that we can't take care of the old city in the west.

In addition, after 10 years of efforts, Guangfo has achieved remarkable results in infrastructure interconnection. Now entering the "deep water area", there are basically only "hard bones" left, and it is more difficult to solve.

Some intangible barriers lie between the two places: medical insurance settlement in different places, approval of business licenses in different places, enjoyment of educational resources, and identification of high-tech enterprises ... It is difficult to break through.

20 18 Guangzhou introduced the "four stops and four stops" restriction policy for license plates in different places, which caused dissatisfaction among many Foshan car owners. A large number of "Guangfo Migratory Birds" citizens living in Foshan have not received special care, and they are restricted like other car owners in different places, making it very inconvenient to travel.

In contrast, Shenzhen and Dongguan are more open, and the flow of resource elements between the two places is smoother.

As early as 20 16, Shenzhen made all four expressways driving from Dongguan free, which was convenient for travel. Look at Fenggang Town in Dongguan. This "embedded" Shenzhen town, as well as the main traffic roads passing through it, such as Ping Long Road, Guanping Road and Outer Ring Expressway, connect different areas of Shenzhen and integrate with the local road network in Dongguan.

Due to the close industrial chain, many Shenzhen people work in Dongguan. Many employees of Huawei arrive in the European town of Songshan Lake in Dongguan by bus every day to start their day's work. There are also many Shenzhen people who buy houses and live in Dongguan.

The high housing prices and the shortage of land resources in Shenzhen have led many enterprises and people to move to Dongguan at the same time, and only the headquarters remains in Shenzhen, which is intertwined. The spillover of industry and population has alleviated the urban pressure of Shenzhen to some extent.

An interesting detail is that in the Outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan issued by the Central Committee, the industries of Shenzhen and Dongguan are stated together: with Shenzhen and Dongguan as the core, a world-class advanced manufacturing industrial cluster with global influence and competitiveness will be built on the east bank of the Pearl River.

Foshan is more classified as the West Pearl River Economic Belt: the advanced equipment manufacturing industrial belt on the west bank of the Pearl River, which is built with Zhuhai and Foshan as the leaders.

Foshan is like an excellent student, well-off, self-reliant and striving for a world. Dongguan, on the other hand, is making waves, with the rise of all walks of life and friends all over the world.

When butterflies flap their wings, they may set off a storm. The strategic difference in location has brought unparalleled advantages to Dongguan, which is unique not only in Foshan but also in the whole country.

That is, it is adjacent to two super cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, and is directly radiated by Hong Kong.

With Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau as the four cores, the Science and Technology Corridor will be the strongest player for China to compete with Silicon Valley and Tokyo-Yokohama Science and Technology Cluster in the future. Dongguan's location and the role of "world factory" can be integrated into this "golden corridor" to the greatest extent.

In particular, Dongguan, located in Linshen District, is also one of the biggest beneficiary cities after Shenzhen has been positioned as the first demonstration area of socialism and strived to build a global benchmark city.

Even Guangzhou should move closer to Shenzhen, the "center of the universe", and take the initiative to accept radiation, which shows its strong potential energy. Shenzhen's continuous capital and industrial radiation is another great strength for Dongguan to surpass Foshan.

three

But Dongguan also has its own shortcomings.

The first is the construction of urban landscape, and there is a lot of debt. Dongguan is a "city governing town" system, with 32 towns and streets developing independently and forming their own system. They all have their own administrative centers and commercial centers, which are relatively scattered, and the development of the whole core area of Dongguan lags behind.

In the high-level competition between cities, urban interface is also an important "soft power".

Walking in the streets of Dongguan, the "world factory", factories and machines can be seen everywhere. The model of "pollution first, then treatment" left a legacy to the whole city.

Looking around, you will feel a magical sense of reality: bright residential areas on the left and dilapidated industrial parks on the right, just like a big village in the city. Zhu Rongji visited the city and gave an evaluation that "the city is not like a city and the countryside is not like a country".

In contrast, Foshan has a deeper cultural background and a much better urban appearance. From Qiandeng Lake to the city center, there are many buildings along the way. Shunde and Nanhai are more advanced in urban construction, which can attract talents and resources.

(Source: Foshan Daily)

Compared with first-tier cities, people who come to second-tier cities care more about happiness, quality of life and work-life balance.

Second, while Dongguan attracts a large number of migrants, the lagging service ability of citizens also poses a great challenge to the city.

At present, the number of primary school students in Dongguan has reached 803,500, second only to Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and even higher than Shanghai. The number of primary school students in Foshan is only 580,654,38+0,000.

Only at this point, Dongguan is facing greater pressure on the supply of educational resources than Foshan. The same pressure will also be reflected in transportation, medical care, public health, public security management, housing supply and so on.

Of course, the influx of a large number of young people has provided Dongguan with vibrant and energetic human resources.

For example, the super scientific research project "China spallation neutron source" established in Dongguan has a cutting-edge team of about 300 people, with an average age of only 35 years old.

As long as we solve the problems of public resources growth and service and treat talents well, the soaring human resources are definitely the "big killer" of Dongguan.

four

Looking at the whole country, Foshan is not Dongguan's only rival. It also has a strongest enemy, Wuxi, Jiangsu.

(All data are 20 18)

Wuxi has a profound heritage. More than 20 years ago, it occupied Jiangsu 1 for a long time, and its GDP was twice that of Nanjing, the provincial capital.

In particular, the per capita GDP of Wuxi is much higher than that of Foshan.

However, Dongguan is a vibrant supernova. 1985 officially withdrew from the county to set up a city, and 1988 was upgraded to a prefecture-level city. It is one of the youngest cities in China.

Comparatively speaking, Foshan and Wuxi are famous cultural cities with hundreds of years of accumulation, namely Yantai, Xiamen and Wenzhou, which were prosperous cities as early as the Republic of China.

Dongguan's per capita GDP is only 99,234 yuan, which is not as good as Foshan's and N stages behind Wuxi. But the biggest advantage of Dongguan's backwardness is its youth.

It doesn't have much historical burden. With the continuous population injection and industrial upgrading and transformation, it constantly refreshes its bones and refuses to be defined.

It is by no means a "nouveau riche" who has not experienced wind and rain, but a teacher of tigers and wolves who have returned from many battles.

Many people still remember that 10 years ago, "eliminating pornography" and "transformation" were two key words in Dongguan, and the eyes of public opinion were uncertain. Affected by the financial crisis, at the worst time, Dongguan's GDP growth rate dropped to 5.3%.

Yuan Baocheng, then the mayor of Dongguan, had a meeting in Beijing, and reporters followed him and kept asking questions.

-"Does anti-vice have an impact on Dongguan's economy?" Yuan Baocheng: "Hehe."

-"Where is the next supporting point of Dongguan economy?" Yuan Baocheng: "Hehe."

-"Dongguan's GDP growth target this year is 9%. Can you guarantee' 9'? " Yuan Baocheng: "Hehe."

The media recorded the mayor's "hey hey" several times, which was the most embarrassing historical moment in Dongguan.

Today, the rebirth of nirvana in Dongguan has long been recognized by all parties. Being a "national civilized city" for four consecutive years, the GDP growth rate of 9.18 years can be stabilized, far exceeding Wuxi and Foshan. It is not easy to thoroughly remould oneself.

Look now, the PK in Dongguan and Foshan will not be conclusive for the time being. Foshan's economy is full of vitality and kinetic energy, while Dongguan has a bright future.

With the rise of Shenzhen's "Cosmic Center", the economic map of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and even China will be reshaped, and a new round of urban reshuffle has begun.

Who can die in the legendary swordsman? Development is the last word, and the market has the final say.

Bless Dongguan! Come on Foshan!

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Uncle Ku's book donation activity has always been there! Hiroyuki Hirota is