When was the policy of late marriage and late childbearing put forward?

Recently, a media published an article entitled

10 year's controversy about "lowering the legal age for marriage": how to judge the jurisprudence and reason? 》

Articles.

This paper combs the evolution of China's marriage age policy vertically, compares the relevant regulations of other countries horizontally, quotes a large number of census and marriage and childbearing survey data, and interviews experts and scholars with representative research in academic circles.

To explore the rationality and feasibility of "reducing the legal age of marriage" under the background of accelerating aging and declining fertility rate.

After the article was published, it quickly caused heated discussion. In two days, more than 30 thousand comments were concentrated, and doubts accounted for the vast majority.

In fact, the questioning of netizens is somewhat off topic. "Lowering the legal age for marriage" only relaxes the age limit for marriage and expands people's choices, but it does not mean that they must get married at that age. Marriage, as a civil legal act, is based on autonomy of will. You can get married if you are willing, but you can't get married if your own conditions are not mature.

But the questions from netizens are not meaningless. They imply:

Promoting the marriage and childbearing rate by lowering the legal marriage age cannot completely solve the current population structure problem. The conflict of education system, the cost of marriage and childbirth, the pressure of life and employment opportunities are the main factors that most people consider when entering the marriage hall.

Why should we adjust the legal age for marriage?

Article 1047 of the Civil Code stipulates that the age of marriage in China should not be earlier than 22 for men and 20 for women. This provision follows the Marriage Law as amended by 1980. Prior to this, according to the provisions of the Marriage Law 1950, the legal age of marriage for men and women in China was 20 years old and 18 years old respectively.

The adjustment of the legal marriage age is the result of the rapid population expansion in China after the founding of the People's Republic of China.

According to statistics, after 1949, the total fertility rate in China has remained above 4 for a long time (2. 1 is usually taken as the generation replacement level internationally). In the short 20 years from 1960 to 1980, the population of China increased from 662.07 million to 987.05 million, with a net increase of more than 320 million. The population exceeds the social carrying capacity, which brings great pressure to economic development and resources and environment. In order to coordinate the tense relationship between population and resources, 1980, China wrote "late marriage and late childbearing" as an advocacy value into the marriage law, and raised the legal age of marriage to the current standard, so as to achieve the purpose of reducing the fertility rate and controlling the population expansion.

It can be seen that the adjustment of the legal age of marriage in China serves to control fertility, and its upward or downward adjustment is closely related to the population size and population structure.

Now more than forty years have passed, and the demographic structure of China has undergone subversive changes:

Since 2 1 century, the total fertility rate in China has been at a very low level of 1.5 for a long time, and it is only 1. 18 in 20 15 years. The low fertility rate means that the aging population is approaching. According to statistics, in the early 1950s, the population over 65 in China was 22.48 million, accounting for 4. 15% of the total population. 202 1 The survey results show that the population over 65 years old in China exceeds 200 million, accounting for 14.2% of the total population.

According to the current extremely low fertility rate, experts predict that the population of China will enter a negative growth from 2025 to 2030, and the proportion of people aged 65 will exceed 20% around 2033, reaching the United Nations standard of super-aging society.

Fewer children, aging and low fertility rate have become China's new basic national conditions.

Accompanied by it, there are many contradictions brought by an aging society.

Professor Lu Xiaoming, Dean of the Law School of Guangdong University of Economics and Law, wrote that aging will dramatically increase the pressure of social support:

Under the pay-as-you-go pension fund raising system, it is inevitable that the pension gap caused by the imbalance between supply and demand will continue to expand with the decline of the number of pension payers and the increase of the number of pension recipients.

By 2050, China's elderly population over 65 will reach 364 million, and the population dependency ratio will rise to 50.5438+05%. At that time, there will be a grim situation in which two on-the-job personnel raise an old man.

At the same time, according to population economics's theory, an aging society will profoundly affect economic development:

The decline in the proportion of employed people will lead to a sharp increase in labor costs, the disappearance of demographic dividends, and the shrinking of labor-intensive industries, which will lead to a decline in social productivity and total output. At the same time, aging means low desire, declining total social demand, insufficient consumption capacity and motivation, and demand-driven economy will be unsustainable. Some experts predict that the potential economic growth rate after 202 1 will be reduced by about 2 percentage points on the basis of the average annual growth rate in the past 30 years if only the influence of the disappearance of demographic dividend on economic growth is considered.

In this context, some NPC deputies, CPPCC members and legal scholars put forward:

The policy of late marriage and late childbearing is

be

An expedient measure to deal with the severe population situation in a special period. Nowadays, the population structure has undergone fundamental changes, so it is urgent to revise the legal age of marriage, improve marriage and fertility rate, and solve the disadvantages of an aging society.

Can lowering the legal age for marriage improve the marriage and childbearing rate?

Modern medicine has proved that the physiological maturity age of men and women is 16 years old and 14 years old respectively. 18 years old is considered to have mature control and recognition ability for his own behavior and external things. Therefore, most countries in the world regard 18 as the age of full capacity for civil conduct, and the legal age for marriage also fluctuates around 18.

According to the statistical data of the United Nations in 20 12, the legal marriage age of women in 84% countries is lower than 18, and that of men in 80% countries is lower than 18. The legal marriage age of 22 years for men in China is the highest in the world. Only China requires both men and women to be over 20 years old.

From this perspective, lowering the legal age of marriage is a way to keep in line with the mainstream of the world. Many scholars have fully demonstrated that there is nothing wrong with lowering the legal age from the perspectives of physiology, jurisprudence, economy and culture.

But from the perspective of solving the problem, can lowering the legal age of marriage really respond to the reality of low marriage and childbearing rate in China?

According to the census data, in 20 10, the average age of first marriage in China was 24.89, and in 2020, this age has risen to 28.67. Some areas such as Anhui Province have exceeded the 30-year-old mark, with men reaching 3 1.89 years old and women reaching 30.73 years old.

Compared with the legal marriage age of 22 years for men and 20 years for women, the age of first marriage is obviously abnormally high.

This means that the legal age of marriage is not the main factor limiting people's choice of marriage and childbirth. There are other reasons for the low marriage and childbearing rate.

This issue is a hot topic in the field of demography at present, and many scholars have put forward their own views on the basis of investigation.

The "educational system conflict" mentioned in netizens' comments is one of the influencing factors.

According to the current academic system, students enter primary school at the age of 6-7, and enter university at the age of 18. The marriageable age of 22-25 years old is when undergraduate or graduate students have just graduated.

Although the law does not prohibit college students from getting married, from a realistic point of view, the vast majority of college students lack independent and stable sources of income, and the economy still depends on their families. Living together after marriage, living together and raising children all need a certain economic foundation, even if college students get married in name.

In addition, marriage is an important life choice of "choosing the best among the best", and employment, income and social status are all key factors affecting mate selection. There is little difference between college students during their school days. Only when they step into the society can they show their abilities and the social resources and economic conditions brought by family relations. Therefore, from the economic point of view, it is a more rational choice to choose a spouse after entering the society.

More importantly, the current labor supply in China is far greater than the labor demand, and every year is the "most difficult employment season", which makes young people have to constantly improve their education level in order to be more competitive in the job market. With the continuous expansion of enrollment, the postgraduate entrance examination is still "rolling" to a new height every year, and the number of candidates is also increasing exponentially. Longer and longer study career naturally makes it inevitable to postpone marriage.

Netizens also mentioned the high cost of marriage in their comments, which is also the direct reason for the delay in the age of first marriage.

Under the control of the concept of "no house, no marriage", house prices have a decisive impact on the cost of marriage. Some scholars have done statistics,

"House prices have a significant delay effect on the first marriage decision of people of marriageable age. Every time the house price rises 1%, the average age at first marriage increases1.65,438+0.08 years old. "

20 17 statistics show that in the past 15 years, house prices in cities all over the country showed an upward trend, and the increase ranged from 6% to 18% according to the degree of urban development. The age of first marriage in different regions is positively related to the increase of house prices in this region.

The rising price of bride price has also greatly increased the cost of marriage.

As we have analyzed in the previous article, the fundamental reason for the rise of bride price is the serious imbalance in the gender ratio of marriage age. According to the data of the seventh national census, the sex ratio of unmarried youth in China will reach 135.39 in 2020, which means that there are only 100 marriageable young women for every 135.39 marriageable young men. Among them, the unmarried sex ratio of rural youth reached 158.30, while the unmarried sex ratio of 35-year-old youth reached an astonishing 243.20. Women of marriageable age are scarce, and men constantly compete for the amount of bride price in order to show their sincerity and economic strength. Accompanied by this, wedding expenses such as new house decoration, household appliances, wedding photography, wedding etiquette and wedding banquet are also rising day by day in the competition. When the growth rate of marriage cost exceeds the growth rate of personal economic level, the delay of marriage age is the inevitable result.

Becker put forward in the theory of family,

The core reason why people choose to get married is that individuals can save costs and achieve economies of scale after marriage. When the high cost of marriage threatens the predictable benefits of marriage, the attractiveness of marriage will naturally decrease.

In view of the above factors, Professor Zhou Xing from School of Economics of Nankai University pointed out that under the background of aging, it is necessary to solve the problems of first marriage age and fertility decision.

The key is to control the cost of marriage within a reasonable range.

. He believes that we should start from the following aspects: First, improve the social security system and the level of people's livelihood security, including maternity insurance, maternity leave system and maternity allowance; Secondly, change customs, rectify high-priced bride price, and reduce the cost of marriage and childbirth for young people of marriageable age; Finally, regulate housing prices, improve public rental housing, and solve the problem of "living and living" after marriage.

From the perspective of law and economics, in order to achieve a certain policy goal, we should make the institutional rules conform to the self-interest needs of each individual and the decision-making motivation of individualism.

Therefore, it is obviously powerless to alleviate the aging and increase the willingness of young people to get married and have children just by lowering the legal age for marriage. How to make the expected income of marriage and childbirth greater than its cost is the real solution to the problem.