How has the pattern of the mobile phone industry changed in the post-Huawei era?

This year's smart phone market is facing many challenges and new development opportunities.

This year, the competition in the mobile phone industry is still fierce, but the overall sales volume of the market is showing fatigue, which makes many people in the industry think that the mobile phone industry seems to have begun to enter involution in terms of technological innovation and market response. But looking around, major domestic mobile phone manufacturers have not slowed down and continue to enrich and improve their product matrix.

Due to various factors, this year's mobile phone market is dominated by stable words.

At the beginning of this year, due to the shortage of spare parts, repeated * *, poor logistics supply and other factors, the global and domestic smartphone markets were generally in a weak growth situation. However, whether from the current situation or the future development trend, the overall situation of the domestic mobile phone market is much better than that of overseas markets. It is expected that the domestic mobile phone market will achieve a small growth this year.

According to data recently released by International Data Corporation, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of this year were 330 million units, down 6.7% year-on-year. According to the data of China Information and Communication Research Institute, in the first half of this year, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 654.38+74 billion units, up 654.38+03.7% year-on-year, of which 5G mobile phone shipped 65.438+0.28 million units. It increased by 65,438+000.9% year-on-year, and 5G mobile phones accounted for about three-quarters of the total mobile phone shipments. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the third quarter of this year, mobile phone shipments in the domestic market exceeded 74 million units, up 2.6% year-on-year, of which 5G mobile phone shipments exceeded 55 million units, up 26.3% year-on-year, accounting for nearly three quarters of the total mobile phone shipments. In the first nine months of this year, the total mobile phone shipments in the domestic market were close to 250 million units, up by 10.2% year-on-year, of which 5G mobile phone shipments were 654.38+83 million units, up by 70.4% year-on-year, accounting for more than 70% of the total mobile phone shipments.

It can be seen that the current domestic mobile phone market presents two obvious characteristics. First, the overall market demand has gradually slowed down, and the replacement cycle of mobile phone users has been further lengthened. Now the average replacement cycle has been extended to about 28 months. Second, the development of 5G mobile phones has gradually entered the fast lane, and the Allin5G era has arrived. With the gradual recovery of chip supply in the future, 5G mobile phones will stand firmly in the C position of the mobile phone market. By the end of September this year, the number of domestic 5G mobile phone users was 445 million, an increase of nearly 250 million compared with the end of last year. However, at present, the network coverage of 5G signals is not perfect, and there is still room for further improvement in the experience. It is believed that with the continuous optimization and gradual solution of the above problems, consumers' demand for 5G mobile phones will usher in an accelerated period.

According to data from CanalysResearch and IDC, there have been some new changes in the global smartphone market share ranking since the second quarter of this year. In addition to Samsung, Xiaomi's mobile phone sales surpassed Apple's and rose to second place for the first time. Its market share reached 17%, up 83% year-on-year, and OPPO and VIVO ranked fourth and fifth respectively. Their market share is 10%. In the third quarter, Samsung continued to rank first, Apple returned to the second place with a shipment of 50 million units, and Xiaomi retreated to the third place due to the tight supply chain.

Judging from the sales of domestic mobile phone companies, OPPO, VIVO, Glory, Xiaomi and Apple ranked in the top five in the third quarter of this year. If ranked by 1-3 mobile phone sales in the third quarter, OPPO ranked first with more than 50 million units shipped, up 53.2% year-on-year, followed by VIVO, Xiaomi, Apple and Glory. Judging from the performance of this year's Double 1 1 Shopping Festival, Xiaomi's mobile phone sales ranked first in all platforms, with sales amount of nearly 20 billion yuan and nearly 6 million new users. The top five mobile phone brands in JD.COM are Xiaomi, Apple, Glory, realme and OPPO, but Apple is still far ahead in sales volume, and realme is worthy of attention among the listed companies. Realme is a dark horse in the mobile phone market this year. The brands have achieved good sales performance on e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD.COM and Tik Tok in Suning.cn, and achieved the sales target of ten million mobile phones in the domestic market ahead of schedule, and successfully entered ten million mobile phone clubs.

At present, the competition pattern in the mobile phone market is undergoing tremendous changes. Since Huawei was trapped in the chip supply chain interruption and Google stopped providing Android and GMS, its market share has fallen out of the top five. Relying on the rich R&D and sales experience accumulated in the past few years, strong brand influence and loyal user groups, HONOR gradually regained its former feeling after straightening out the problems of parts supply chain. By the second quarter of this year, HONOR's market share has risen from the lowest point of 3% to nearly 9%, and it has been in a steady upward trend, and its ranking in the domestic mobile phone market has also returned to the top five. Although the gap between glory and OPPO, VIVO and Xiaomi in market share is still relatively large, and the domestic market share of the latter three companies is above 20%, it is only a matter of time before glory relies on its own strong strength and solid foundation to return to its previous peak.

I believe that the strong return of glory will definitely make the domestic mobile phone market more competitive, and accelerating the market share left by Huawei has become the primary task of all mobile phone manufacturers. Since last year, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have adjusted their business strategies in a timely manner, and made simultaneous efforts in domestic and overseas markets, especially relying on the advantages of high cost performance, and achieved relatively good sales results in overseas markets. In the future, there will be many variables in the ranking of domestic head mobile phone enterprises, and the market share of head brands will also usher in a new round of reshuffle. So far, the difficulties faced by Huawei still show no signs of improvement. The newly launched P50 series products are not equipped with 5G chips, which greatly reduces the market competitiveness of their products. Perhaps Huawei's mobile phone business will have a bright future only after the chip supply is fully restored.

The trend of mobile phone sales has slowed down this year, and the mobile phone market is welcoming a diversified competition pattern.

In the era when Huawei and Apple came together, Huawei's share in the domestic smartphone market reached more than 50%. In the past two years, Huawei's mobile phone shipments have been greatly reduced. This year's market share has shrunk from 1 6% in the quarter to less than 9% in the second quarter, which has also led to a decline in the overall market share and influence of several domestic head mobile phone companies. The market share of the top five companies in terms of shipments has dropped from 95% last year to 82% now, which naturally brings opportunities and space for other mobile phone companies to develop upwards. Of course, the competitive multi-competition pattern can revitalize the market, which is not a bad thing for consumers.

Although domestic mobile phone companies have made some gains in sales and revenue this year, Apple's detached position is still hard to shake in the high-end mobile phone market share that can better enhance its brand image, show its own technology research and development strength and obtain rich profit returns. Domestic brands are still struggling in this regard. In the global market, Huawei's market share is being divided by Apple and Samsung, and in the domestic market, it is still Apple's monopoly. Domestic mobile phone companies have also introduced many high-end models to seize market share, such as X60Pro+ of VIVO, 1 1Ultra, 1 1Pro and MIXFOLD of OPPO. Many other manufacturers have also launched folding screen mobile phones of about 10,000 yuan, but in terms of sales volume, there is still a big gap between the high-end models of mobile phone companies and Apple mobile phones. The road to brand promotion of domestic mobile phones still has a long way to go, and it still needs to go through a long process of technology accumulation and product iteration, and win the trust and reputation of consumers by introducing more high-quality products.

It is believed that there are several reasons for the slowdown in mobile phone sales this year. First, after rapid development in recent years, the penetration rate of smart phones in China is relatively high at present, and the potential and space for future market growth are limited. More sales can only be based on product upgrades. Second, affected by * *, users' willingness to buy and enthusiasm for consumption have declined to a certain extent, and the demand for market upgrading has not been fully released. Third, * * has also greatly hindered the production, R&D and marketing of enterprises. For example, the tight supply of mobile phone chips has not been effectively alleviated, which has a great impact on 5G mobile phones, because the number of chips needed to produce a 5G mobile phone is about twice that of a 4G mobile phone. Fourth, at present, the progress of mobile phone technology is relatively slow, which leads to a decline in the attractiveness of new products, making it difficult for some users to have the idea of buying, and also slowing down the frequency of consumers changing their mobile phones.

With the maturity of AI, full screen, 5G and other technologies and the elimination of models in consumers' hands, the market will meet a considerable demand for upgrading in the next few years, coupled with the gradual development of overseas emerging markets such as Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and the advantages of stock scale maintained in the global mobile phone market, the domestic smart phone industry will still be in a stable growth state.

The progress of technology will never stop, and technology will always be the best driving force.

In the fiercer market competition, domestic mobile phone manufacturers invariably choose the traditional marketing strategy of enriching product matrix and launching mobile phones with different prices for different demand groups in order to seize as much market share as possible. Because there is little difference in production technology among manufacturers, many enterprises are looking for different characteristics of their products in another way. Some enterprises plan to take mobile phone screen and photography as the focus of technology iterative upgrade and the selling point of future product promotion and marketing, while others actively introduce new products that meet consumers' tastes based on their own characteristics and advantages, such as ZTE and Xiaomi promoting off-screen camera technology and full screen. Huawei continues to sell high-quality camera functions and HarmonyOS system ecosystem, realme gradually expands its market share with high cost performance, and vivo strives to make continuous efforts in four areas: design, image, performance and system.

With the rise of technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, AR/VR, artificial intelligence and big data. The Internet of Everything is gradually becoming a reality. Many enterprises are taking mobile phone products as the core, and building an all-round IOT terminal ecological chain system including various high definition multimedia. By establishing a complete family and personal product matrix and ecological closed loop, the brand's audience range and market awareness will be gradually expanded, and relying on smart phones and mobile Internet technologies. Realizing the Internet of Things, intelligence and cloud enjoyment in these products will make users more convenient and worry-free, and will also continuously increase the brand consumption stickiness of users, further enhance the market share of brands and the overall profitability of enterprises, such as high-end intelligent hardware products such as HomePod, AppleWatch and Airpods launched by Apple on the basis of mobile phones, tablets and computers. Xiaomi's AIoT platform has been connected to more than 300 million kinds of intelligent terminal devices, and the gross profit margin of its Internet business is about 40% to 50% higher than that of smartphones. Building a terminal ecosystem combining software and hardware will be the general trend of the future development of the smart phone industry. It can be said that the future mobile phone manufacturers may be more like an Internet company.

The progress of technology is endless, especially in the mobile phone industry. Every technology related to mobile phones is constantly improving. Mobile phone manufacturers are trying to expand their market share with more advanced technologies. For example, the well-known mobile phone fast charging technology has developed from 65W in the previous year to about 100W last year, and this year it has been upgraded to the level of 120W. Some brands even released 200W wired fast charging technology, which means that a 4000mAh mobile phone can be fully charged in just a few minutes. But overall, the progress of mobile phone technology and the main selling points of manufacturers this year are mostly concentrated in non-core fields. From the user's point of view, its significance and practical value are not as great as advertised, but the technological progress in processor, memory and battery capacity, which are closely related to the performance of mobile phones, is limited, which may be the mobile phone industry.

It is believed that a technology or a product will go through the process from qualitative change to quantitative change before a big breakthrough and innovation occurs, especially for products with high technical maturity. At a certain stage, it is more likely that technological innovation will decrease and product homogeneity will increase. At present, the development and progress of mobile phone technology is such a gradual accumulation process, but this process is slower than before, and the current mobile phone industry is far from involution. Because its technology is still developing and progressing in all aspects, it has not fallen into a stagnant situation. However, the competition in the market is still fierce. In order to compete for market share, mobile phone manufacturers can only seize some small innovations to make products bright and differentiated, which naturally gives people a sense of involution. When the technology accumulation of various manufacturers reaches a certain level in the future, I believe that there will be refreshing new products.

label

Generally speaking, this year's smart phone market is facing many challenges and new development opportunities. With the gradual slowdown of market demand, the competition pattern in the industry will become more intense, especially the mid-to high-end mobile phone market will be the focus of various manufacturers. For mobile phone manufacturers, only by gaining a deeper insight into and meeting users' needs, constantly increasing technological innovation and striving to create their own differentiated competitive advantages can they win more users and compete in the fierce market.

This article is from Qi Chao. Yu Jian column of com. Author: Yu Jian, authorized by 36Kr.