Anqing mango baby photography

When we wrote about Guangxi in the last part of 2023, we talked about how Guangxi lost to Hunan and Jiangxi when undertaking the industrial transfer in the Pearl River Delta.

Just follow this topic and talk about the opportunities and challenges that Hunan Province faces when competing with other provinces.

Of course, the development of industrialization in Hunan is mainly the competition of industrial transfer.

The famous Lance Technology started in Shenzhen in 2003 and then moved to Hunan. In 2022, Lance Technology created 80,000 jobs for Hunan, with an average monthly income of 5,900 yuan before tax and a monthly salary of 527 million yuan, which made great contributions to Hunan's economy.

In the first half of 2022, Lance Technology's revenue was 210.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and its net profit was 2.3 billion yuan. It is a representative enterprise in Hunan to undertake the industrial transfer in the Pearl River Delta.

When we usually talk about industrial transfer, we only think of the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, but we always ignore that there is also a consumer goods area in Fujian Province, which specializes in small household appliances, clothing, shoes and socks. In fact, Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Anhui and Henan all aim at these three regions when they compete for industrial transfer, but according to the geographical location, Hunan is more likely to get the industries in the Pearl River Delta.

As Guangxi said, in the next ten years, there will be a great shift in China's industrial chain. The Pearl River Delta mainly radiates Ganzhou, Chenzhou, Hengyang, Shaoyang, Yongzhou, Liuzhou, Nanning and Hezhou, while the Yangtze River Delta mainly radiates Shangrao, Anqing, Wuhu, Bengbu, Xuzhou, Fuyang, Nanchang and Fuzhou. Xiazhangquan mainly transferred to Ganzhou, Fuzhou, Shangrao and Ji 'an.

As we can see, in the above list, several cities in Jiangxi Province overlap the most.

Looking at the territory of China, Jiangxi is close to Fujian, Guangdong and Zhejiang, and it can compete with Hunan in the industrial undertaking war in the Pearl River Delta, but it has considerable advantages over Hunan in the industrial undertaking war in Xiamen, Zhangzhou, Zhang Quan and the Yangtze River Delta.

Among them, Ganzhou has the highest frequency. Among the 168 minerals in China, there are 106 minerals in Ganzhou. Ganzhou is rich in rare earth, tungsten, copper, silver, lead, zinc, graphite and other minerals, with a permanent population of 9 million. A large number of smart home appliances, biomedicine and new energy enterprises have come to Ganzhou, which has also made the population of Ganzhou grow continuously.

Coupled with the Jiangxi-Shenzhen high-speed railway that will be opened at the end of 2022, and the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Grand Canal 130 1 km super project that will be started in 2023 and planned to be completed around 2030, Jiangxi, which began to decline because of the loss of waterways and railways, will prosper again because of high-speed railways and golden waterways.

As a result, Ganzhou has become the fastest growing city in Jiangxi Province, with a GDP of 280.7 billion in 2022, 347.4 billion in 2022 and 364.5 billion in 2022. In the first half of 2022, Ganzhou's GDP reached196.6 billion, and economists predicted that Ganzhou's GDP would exceed 400 billion in 2022.

I also found an interesting figure in the data released by Jiangxi Provincial Department of Finance. In 2022, the Provincial Department of Finance allocated 44.6 billion in Ganzhou, 22.3 billion in Jiujiang and 20 billion in Nanchang; In 2022, the Provincial Department of Finance allocated 44.4 billion in Ganzhou, 25.4 billion in Jiujiang and 65.438+0.97 billion in Nanchang; In 2022, the Provincial Department of Finance allocated 47.9 billion in Ganzhou, 29 1 billion in Jiujiang and 23.4 billion in Nanchang. It can be seen that Jiangxi province also fully supports the construction of Ganzhou and Jiujiang, and has allocated more money to these two cities than Nanchang. In the future, Jiangxi Province will form an echelon of Nanchang, Ganzhou and Jiujiang, with Yichun, Shangrao and Ji 'an as the second echelon, which will drive the economic development of Jiangxi as a whole.

Nanchang now ranks 26th in China, with a GDP of only 574.5 billion, less than half of Changsha's, and is expected to enter the top 20 in the future. Ganzhou and Jiujiang are now ranked 42nd and 45th in China respectively, and are expected to enter the top 30 in China.

Those cities squeezed out by Hunan and Jiangxi are probably some medium-sized cities in the north with GDP of 300 billion to 400 billion and underdeveloped industries.

In the first half of 2022, the GDP of Jiangxi Province finally surpassed that of Shaanxi, ranking 14 in the country. According to the industrial transfer and large-scale infrastructure construction undertaken by Jiangxi now, I personally predict that after the completion of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Grand Canal in 2030, Jiangxi will run to the position of10-1.

It's harder to predict if you rush forward. The starting point of Jiangxi is indeed a little low, and the front is also a master like a cloud.

Let's talk about another important rival of Hunan: Hubei.

The first echelon in Hubei is Wuhan, the second echelon is Xiangyang and Yichang, and the third echelon is Jingzhou, Huanggang, Xiaogan, Shiyan and Jingmen.

Wuhan and Changsha are different from Nanchang. Only Fuzhou and Jinan understand Nanchang's mood. It is a provincial capital with little sense of existence, and the distance between Wuhan and Changsha is too small. This big brother has done something wrong.

Last year, Wuhan's GDP 1.56 trillion, Xiangyang's 460 billion, Yichang's 426 1 billion, and Jingzhou's only 236.9 billion. The gap between the three echelons is obvious.

Hubei has an insoluble geographical advantage over Hunan, that is, the Yangtze River Economic Belt with 106 1 km.

In September 2022, "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt by Relying on the Golden Waterway" was promulgated. This economic belt has become a key development strategy, and whoever touches this waterway will make a fortune.

At one time, there was a plan hanging on the wall of Hunan Province, which divided the whole Hunan into four parts, namely, the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area in the east, Shaoyang, Hengyang, Yongzhou and Chenzhou in the south, the poverty alleviation area in western Hunan, and Dongting Lake around Yueyang, Changde and Yiyang in the north.

This Dongting Lake is one of the few places in Hunan that shares the Yangtze River. There are 8 cities along the Yangtze River in Hubei, only Yueyang in Hunan, and only100km by the river.

Because of the existence of the Yangtze River, there are many savings in transportation costs. In addition, Hubei is an important producer of high-silicon quartz sand, and there are also mines in China. Hongtai quartz sand, Xintai Yingshi and Jie Zhen Yingshi are all gathered here. Semiconductor upstream and downstream, Changjiang Storage, Huawei Integrated Circuit, Sanan Optoelectronic, Huaxing Optoelectronic, Kelei, Marco Lin, followed the mine owner to open a company in Wuhan, plus WISCO, Dongfeng Motor, Zhong Jian and Wuyan.

Four times the urban area of Changsha, with a permanent population of120,000, a steady stream of high-quality migrant workers from 88 universities (57 in Changsha) and the geographical thoroughfare of nine provinces, Wu Hanyou enjoys an unshakable advantage.

In 2022, Hubei's GDP was 4.58 trillion yuan, which fell to 4.34 trillion yuan in 2022 due to the epidemic, and recovered to 2.27 trillion yuan in the first half of 2022. According to Hunan's 4. 18 trillion in 2022, the growth rate last year was 3.8%, which should not be caught up.

Hubei should be among the 6-7 provinces in China in the future.

For Hubei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Hunan has a real mentality of "integrating the transportation system with Xiangjiang River as the mainstay into the Yangtze River", which can be divided into a little bit.

I often say that geography is fate, and it is difficult for Hunan to compete with Hubei. Facing the Yangtze River, it's time to accept my fate.

In addition to Jiangxi and Hubei, there is an Anhui behind Hunan.

As I mentioned in Wan Li's map of Anhui, after the flood and Hefei were well managed, the whole province was in a stage of rapid advancement. In 2022, Anhui is only 2 billion less than Shanghai and 3 10 billion less than Hunan, ranking 1 1 in the country.

Moreover, Anhui is engaged in emerging industries, such as electronic information, new energy vehicles, new materials, food and medicine, household appliances, light industry textiles and so on. These industries have great potential, especially new energy vehicles. This industry will be a big cake in the future, which will produce economic benefits. Unfortunately, Hunan didn't catch it.

Hefei, as one of the echelons of Anhui Province, added 12 listed companies in 2022, including 7 science and technology innovation boards. In the first half of 2022, industries above designated size increased by 33%, and exports increased by 32%, far exceeding other cities at the same level. It is estimated that the GDP of Hefei will reach 1. 1 trillion in 2022, which is far behind that of Changsha (2022).

Wuhu and Chuzhou, which are in the second echelon, develop machinery manufacturing, shipbuilding, textiles and clothing, light industrial food, and focus on developing smart home appliances, advanced equipment, healthy food, chemicals, silicon-based materials and new energy. Together with the extension assistance, it is only a matter of time before they break through 400 billion GDP.

According to the current development speed and industrial potential, Anhui will surpass Hunan in a few years, and it will rank 7-8 in the country in the future.

Now let's look at the GDP data of all provinces in China in 2022, and we can see the sense of urgency in Hunan now.

Not surprisingly, Guangdong and Jiangsu will continue to compete for the top spot, and the positions of Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan and Sichuan will be hard to shake, and the first six in the next decade will be hard to shake, and the changes will be concentrated in the seventh to tenth places.

Hubei and Fujian should not catch up, Anhui will overtake in the next few years, and Hunan may fall to the tenth place in the country, which may take a long time.

Hunan is inevitably anxious, because the front can't catch up, and the back will be caught up.

Fortunately, there is a big gap between the top ranking 13 and the bottom ranking. If you are in the front 13, you are not left behind.

Hunan is not developing so fast, but it is still developing on the whole.

Now, we can finally talk about Hunan and Changsha in detail.

By 2022, Changsha will only have 1909 km, permanent population100000, and Wuhan will have 8596 km and permanent population140000. Wuhan can reach four times that of Changsha, mainly because Changsha is a city surrounded by mountains on all sides, with mountains on the west, south and north, and only the southeast has geothermal energy.

Map emperor

The advantage of a small place is that the infrastructure cost is low, everyone lives together, the population density is high, it is convenient to go anywhere and do anything, and the business will be particularly developed.

For example, if you live in a building of 2,000 people, the bars, takeout and teacher Tony around here must be very developed, because the population is concentrated and you can afford it. If you live in a building with 300 people, the life of bars, takeaways and teachers Tony will be very hard, and their passenger flow will be greatly reduced. They have to run several more buildings and pay several times of hard work to earn the same money.

When you go to Changsha, you will find that modern China tea shops are simply 100 meters of families, and they are everywhere. It is precisely because of the dense population that this kind of small shop can be raised and commercial brands such as tea words, literature and friends can be born in Changsha, because of the commercial advantages brought by the small urban area and dense population. In such a business environment, it is easy to produce a brand-new brand that adapts to the life of citizens.

Note that I use the word "citizen life business brand" here.

Why weren't modern China tea shops and Wenheyou born in Wuhan?

Because Wuhan's urban population is not as concentrated as Changsha's, Changsha is more likely to produce commercial brands of citizens' life.

Why didn't Modern China Tea Shop and Wenheyou come into being in Shenzhen?

Because Shenzhen's housing prices are high, the work pressure is super high, and people are working hard every day. It is impossible to live like Changsha people.

Changsha people enjoy life leisurely, because their house prices in the provincial capital of China are lower. As long as Changsha people don't eat or drink for 6.5 years, they can buy a suite, and the house price is about 10 thousand, even lower than some provinces and counties.

Then why is the house price in Changsha so low?

Personally, I think there are two main reasons:

One is that when the national housing prices began to soar, Changsha kept the people-oriented bottom line.

1994, the financial power has been effectively strengthened, and it is possible to "concentrate on doing great things". Local governments get 75%, 25%, 60%, 40%, consumption tax and business tax. Generally speaking, local governments have taken the lion's share and the lion's share, but local governments, enterprises and institutions are also having a hard time. We have to build an elevated bridge, don't we? You always have to repair the sewer, don't you? Without money, the intersection can't even hang a red light and a green light, the bus can't run, and the city is paralyzed.

For example, in 2008, local finance accounted for 48% of the national income, but it had to bear 79% of the national expenditure. Where money is needed, it is necessary to leave a way out for local governments. After negotiation, local governments were allowed to sell land to increase their income.

Local governments mainly do two things with money, one is to pay wages, and the other is to engage in construction. In order to make the city more modern, local governments always have the impulse to sell land to make money.

Take this year as an example. In the first seven months of 2022, the national land transfer revenue was 41400 million yuan, accounting for 56.7% of the local fiscal revenue of 7.3 trillion yuan, and accounting for 34.76% of the national tax revenue of 1 1.9 1 trillion yuan. More than half of the local income has been sold.

This also brings a side effect. When house prices go up, land prices go up. When the land price rises and the house price rises again, the local income will increase.

It's okay to be impulsive.

But in the past 20 years, Changsha has not been impulsive at all, and has resisted land sales to make money.

A person in Hunan Province once said in an interview with the media in the past: People live too hard to pay off their high mortgage, and Changsha can't let them live this life.

If you can't make money, you have to save money. Changsha has been saving money in the field of infrastructure construction. If you want to build a bridge with one billion yuan, you should try to reduce it to 600 million yuan by scientific means. By the end of 2022, Wuhan plans to build 600 kilometers, so we plan to build 200 kilometers. In 2025, Wuhan plans to build a total mileage of 800 kilometers and Changsha will build 300 kilometers.

Controlling the impulse to sell land, the disadvantage is that the infrastructure is not crazy. The advantage is that citizens can feel happy, work hard to buy a house and live a good life.

Only a population can support the industry, and there is hope in Changsha.

By the way, the second reason is that Changsha needs a mace if it wants to keep the hope of industrial development and survive the fierce competition in the central provinces.

Hubei has the Yangtze River, Anhui has Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Jiangxi has the Grand Canal and neighboring provinces, so Hunan can only rely on pulling villagers back from the Pearl River Delta to start a business, and Yueyang Changde in the north. In the next decade, Hunan's geographical position is not as good as that of Anhui, Jiangxi and Hubei. Hunan people should leave a way for themselves, attract talents back to Hunan and attract enterprises to settle in Hunan.

Low housing prices are the competition of Hunan people. If there is no location advantage, bite your teeth and lower the land price, and leave the industry after eating porridge and chaff.

As long as housing prices in Changsha do not rise, housing prices in all cities in the province will not rise. If the price of any city exceeds Changsha, everyone will think that the people here are precious. Why buy your house? Why don't I go to Changsha to buy it?

Changsha's low housing prices, starting from all provinces and cities in the past, have gradually become a card in Hunan.

In 2022, there were 776,000 college students in Changsha, with 200,000 graduates each year. Try to keep at least half of Changsha, and don't let it all go to Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Only in this way can the total population of Changsha be increased, the goal of120,000 people can be achieved in 2030, and the hope of industrialization can be maintained.

We Hunan people are often criticized that urban construction is not as good as other provinces. That's because our local income is low, and our local income is low because Changsha takes the lead in lowering housing prices.

The geographical position of Hunan Province is naturally not enough to play with Anhui and Hubei, so can't we save money ourselves?

Those who say that there is little land supply in Changsha and that low income in Changsha leads to low housing prices are all wrong.

In 2022, the land supply in Wuhan will be 32 million cubic meters and that in Changsha will be 22 million cubic meters, which is suitable for the population and urban areas. The house price in Wuhan is twice as high as that in Changsha.

Changsha's income is not low either. In 2022, the per capita disposable income of Changsha urban residents was 5797 1 yuan, which was higher than that of Zhengzhou (42877 yuan), Chengdu (48593 yuan), Wuhan (460 yuan/kloc-0) and 8 yuan (40006 yuan). Several of my former colleagues have all returned to Changsha, and their income is similar to that of the Pearl River Delta.

Of course, Changsha people can leave such spare money to eat, drink and have fun, mainly because of low housing prices. If the house price is the same as that in Wuhan, Changsha people should work hard to pay their mortgage, and the per capita disposable income in Changsha is estimated to be broken.

Changsha has proved by facts that local governments can depress housing prices as long as they are willing. When restrictions on purchases, tax increases, sales restrictions and other measures come down, the market will be suppressed. See if you are impulsive in the face of land finance.

Hunan's overall grand strategy is: first, southern cities should accept the industrial transfer of the Pearl River Delta more; Secondly, the northern cities should be integrated into the Yangtze River Economic Belt; Third, complete the integration of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan.

The first two said that both of them should suppress housing prices. Now the third one.

I've heard about this project since I was a child, and it hasn't been successful yet, it seems almost thirty years.

It is said that the debt problem in Xiangtan is very serious, and we are trying to solve it now, and it will be solved soon.

10 days ago, Hunan Province also released 22 projects with a total investment of 285.2 billion yuan, with a planned investment of 43.7 billion yuan in 2022. By the end of August, the total investment of these 22 projects this year was 28.6 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 65.49%, and the overall progress was smooth. Sany Zhilian Heavy Truck Parts and Construction Machinery Expansion, SAIC Volkswagen Electric Vehicle Project, Yuelushan Seed Industry Innovation Center, etc.

By the end of 2022, there were 73 A-share listed companies in Changsha, but the manufacturing industry accounted for less than 30%. Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Valin Iron and Steel and Lance Technology account for most of the market value. Although Aier Ophthalmology and Mango Media are important, the manufacturing industry is more meaningful, and Hunan manufacturing industry is in urgent need of irrigation.

Even if the GDP is much lower than that of Hunan in Jiangxi, its regulated profit will reach 243.8 billion yuan in 2022, only lower than 25 19 billion yuan in Hubei, higher than 229.4 billion yuan in Anhui and 203.2 billion yuan in Hunan.

Hunan has always been a representative province in south-central China. Without the advantage of rivers and seas, it is not easy to live in today's ranking. Once the economy was too backward, a large number of well-educated Hunan people eventually flowed to Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

With the large-scale infrastructure construction in Jiangxi, Anhui and Hubei in full swing, and the industrial transfer in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Xiamen in an orderly manner, Hunan's geographical disadvantage began to be surpassed by Anhui and narrowed by Jiangxi.

In order to win this breath, Hunan people can only push down the housing price in Changsha if they want to speed up the industrialization process, retain talents and good enterprises and survive in the fierce competition in the central provinces.

Compared with the neighboring provincial capital cities, the low housing prices in Changsha are unreasonable. Suppressing housing prices in Changsha is not to suppress housing prices in a city, but to suppress housing prices in a province.

In order to form a price depression in the middle of the province, attract more investment and talent reserves, and let more people find happiness and gain in Hunan.

We have no location advantage, but we have our own courage.

This is not only for our well-being, but also for defending Hunan's industrialization.

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I wrote a biography of Dushan before, telling why dushan county, a poverty-stricken county in Guizhou, did not develop its economy after spending a lot of money and material resources on large-scale infrastructure construction. What changes have taken place in this?

Readers who need this article can reply privately: Dushan gets it.

The above is related to the bitter life of rabbits in 2023, and it is a sharing of Wuhan's development. I've watched the wonderful life of Bunny for several months, I hope this will help everyone!