What are the opportunities for the 5G industrial chain?

The 5G industry has broad business prospects. Three business scenarios release market vitality. China Mobile fully promoted the commercialization of 5G, and the work of 6G concept started.

165438+109 At the 5th world internet conference, China Mobile is making every effort to promote the commercialization of 5G, with the goal of pre-commercialization in 20 19 and commercialization in 2020. The 5G index 165438+ 10 rose by 2. 13% on October 9, and 46 of the 53 5G concept stocks rose. Insiders told me that the related research work of the 6G concept also started this year.

5G has broad business prospects.

With the goal of 20 19 pre-commercialization and 2020 commercialization, China Mobile is making every effort to advance from five aspects: technology, standards, industry, ecology and business.

China Mobile took the lead in releasing the pioneer plan of 5G terminals. China Mobile will launch a 5G smartphone in the first half of 20 19, and will release a white paper on 5G terminals this year. It is planned to launch the first batch of 5G terminal products of China Mobile's own brand in 20 19. China Mobile started the research and development of 5G on 20 13. Compared with 4G, 5G should form a cross-industry integration ecology, combining communication resources and capabilities into new services and experiences that are closer to users' needs.

The industry is very optimistic about the commercial prospects of 5 G. According to the statistical data of "Report on Development Prospects of 5G Industry and Analysis of Investment Opportunities in Industrial Chain" issued by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, it is predicted that by 2025, the 5G network will cover 40% of the population, and China will become the largest market. In 2025, the number of people enjoying 5G in China will account for one third of the global total, reaching 430 million. As of June, 20 18, China's penetration rate of 4G users has entered the top five in the world, and 5G R&D has entered the leading echelon in the world, ranking first in the e-commerce market. 5G will benefit almost every industry. By 2035, 5G is expected to create goods and services worth up to 65,438+02.3 trillion dollars in a wide range of industries, and the new opportunities created by 5G will far exceed those created by 3G and 4G.

It is necessary to actively develop 5G mobile phones and 5G application scenarios. Ma said that Tencent should seriously consider developing a VR version of WeChat. Lei Jun also said that Xiaomi will release the 5G commercial mobile phone in Europe in March and April of 20 19.

Support breakthroughs in applications such as industrial Internet and Internet of Vehicles, promote the application of 5G in the field of public services, vigorously cultivate new products, new formats and new models, and prosper the digital economy.

It is difficult to achieve returns in the short term.

According to the previously announced commercial timetable of China's 5G network, 5G will be pre-commercialized in China in 20 19 and officially commercialized in 2020. According to conservative estimates by industry insiders, the three major operators will invest a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in 5G, and the cumulative investment in 4G is about 850 billion yuan. For large-scale investment, payback period has also become the focus of the industry, and it is difficult for 5G to achieve significant revenue growth within three to five years.

Analysis of Three Application Scenarios of 5G

The first application scenario of 1 and 5G is eMBB (Enhanced Mobile Broadband Scenario), which refers to traffic consumption. But now, the mobile phone penetration rate in China has reached 1 10%, and the ARPU (average income per user) has decreased year by year, from 20 18 to June-September, by 64%.

The second application scenario of 2.5G is mMTC (massive Internet of Things connection scenario). At present, the ARPU value of mMTC is only a few cents, while the ARPU value of operators in interpersonal communication is about 50 yuan, with a difference of about 100 times. The income level is still very low. The income of the three major operators in the field of Internet of Things for eight years is less than 1% of the total income, because the application objects of Internet of Things are utilities such as electricity meters, water meters and gas. In the mMTC scenario, the core should be the industrial Internet of Things, because the manufacturing industry can have a high willingness and ability to pay.

The third application scenario of 3.5G is uRLLC (ultra-reliable low-latency connection scenario). The main application representative of this scenario is the Internet of Vehicles. "But it may take about ten years for the Internet of Vehicles, especially autonomous driving, to be truly commercialized on a large scale.

Judging from the three business scenarios of 5G, we can't expect to bring considerable income in the near future. It is still too optimistic to hope that 5G will drive the industry to take off and the market to explode within three to five years.

6G concept research began this year.

Head of IMT-2020(5G) wireless technology working group of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the research on the concept of 6G also started this year. When our 5G promotion team conducted demand research before planning, it was found that users have complete demand for high-performance networks, and many application ideas must be supported by the performance indicators of 5G networks. Forward-looking Industry Research Institute said that from 20 10 to 2020, the wireless communication business volume is expected to increase by at least 1000 times.

It may take 8 to 10 years to fully realize the visual effect of 5G, and the scale expansion of 5G must be very slow. It should be noted that the first batch of 5G networks were only built in limited cities and regions.

To this end, the future development of 5G needs closer cooperation, which has become the consensus of all parties. This Internet conference hopes to deepen the international consensus on 5G in an all-round way, promote international cooperation in the development strategy, planning, standards, frequency and supervision of 5G, promote cross-disciplinary, all-round and multi-level cooperation, accelerate the establishment of an open and integrated 5G industrial system, and create a broad, interactive and dynamic 5G development ecology.

China attaches great importance to 5G, which has become a national strategy. 5G has become the basic platform for stimulating investment, leading scientific and technological innovation, realizing industrial upgrading and developing new economy. The government vigorously promotes and directly invests in standard guidance, field experiments and engineering experiments.