Looking back at 20 19, four words that run through the automobile circle for a whole year.

20 19 is a cold winter year for China auto market sales, and it is also a transitional year after the end of the 28-year incremental era. With the word "recession", the words "cold", "difficult", "province" and "combination" run through the 20 19 automobile circle.

Text/crayon new? Figure/source network

Today 20 19 finally came to an end with a sigh in winter. Wave goodbye to 20 19, welcome 2020, and look back at the car circle of 20 19 at the starting point of the new year. If you have to find a word to sum it up, perhaps "recession" is the most appropriate one.

Some people say that 20 18 is the turning point of China automobile industry, but now it seems that 20 19 is more suitable. 20 19 is a cold winter year for China auto market sales, and it is also a transitional year after the end of the 28-year incremental era. With the word "recession", the words "cold", "difficult", "province" and "combination" run through the 20 19 automobile circle.

Cold-cold sales bring cold to the industry.

First of all, the depression of 20 19 automobile circle is directly reflected in the depression of sales volume. Take the domestic automobile market as an example. According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the month of 1- 1 1 this year, the cumulative sales volume of automobiles nationwide was 23 1 1 10,000 vehicles, down 9. 1% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of passenger cars was 1, 923. 1, 000 vehicles, down 1.5% year-on-year. At the same time, as of June this year 165438+ 10, the sales volume of China automobile market has been declining for 17 months in a row, and there is no hope of achieving positive growth in automobile sales this year.

Positive growth is no longer a luxury, and even 2020, which has just arrived, has been characterized as still depressed in advance. According to the latest forecast of National Information Center 20 19, the "declining" rhythm will continue in 2020, and the domestic demand for passenger cars will bottom out at 20 million. Under optimistic circumstances, the bottom will rebound at 202 1, and a new "spring" will be ushered in in the following years.

Since 20 18, the sales volume has fallen off a cliff, and the sharp decline in new car sales has also made the overall profit of the automobile industry lower. According to the statistics of profit growth data of various industries in the first three quarters of this year, automobiles and auto parts "topped the list", and the -33.25% profit growth rate of the whole industry also revealed the "fig leaf" of the industry being cold.

The cold industry brought by the cold sales volume is manifested in all aspects of the automobile circle. In the past, as the vane of the automobile industry, the light of major auto shows has also dissipated and become dim. Although Tokyo Auto Show, one of the world's top five auto shows, has 187 participants and groups, there are only four exhibitors from overseas brands, including Mercedes-Benz and Renault. For the first time since 2009, brands such as Volkswagen, Porsche and Audi decided not to participate, making it the "least international" auto show among the world's top five auto shows.

In addition to the "embarrassing" appearance of the Tokyo Motor Show, it has become a major trend that auto shows around the world are becoming more and more "deserted": this year's Frankfurt Motor Show is also the coldest auto show in a hundred years. Although some brands from China, such as FAW Hongqi, Great Wall and Baiteng, show off their muscles, 22 well-known automobile brands have announced their withdrawal from the Frankfurt Motor Show. In addition, the Detroit Auto Show and the Geneva Auto Show are not as good as before.

Back in China, apart from the Shanghai Auto Show and the Guangzhou Auto Show, this year's Chengdu Auto Show is a bit cold. In addition, it was previously reported that the Shanghai New Energy Vehicle Automation Technology Exhibition, originally scheduled to be held in Shanghai New International from (2019)1October 30 10/1,was changed due to the bad industry, so in order to ensure the exhibition effect, it will be postponed until August 2020.

Although it was later confirmed that the reason for the delay was not that more than 30 exhibitors closed down, the main reason was that the subsidies of new energy automobile enterprises weakened, which led to the weakening of the willingness of new energy automobile enterprises to participate in the exhibition, but it can also be seen that the willingness of automobile manufacturers to participate in the exhibition also weakened a lot under the premise of cold sales.

And this cold word also leads to another three words that run through the automobile circle all the year round.

Difficult-unsustainable, the knockout is not over yet.

The persistence of the cold winter in the automobile market is not only a test for the whole automobile industry, but also a knockout for every individual in the automobile industry. On the one hand, the knockout brings pressure to the industry, and the pressure triggers upward momentum; On the other hand, some car companies that are already unsustainable can only face death in the cold winter.

20 19, many car companies withdrew from the historical stage on the word "difficult". 165438+ 10 18, the website of the people's court announced that Hangzhou Youth Automobile Co., Ltd. had gone bankrupt. One month before 10, an internal mail of the bank circulated on the Internet, saying that "Cheetah Automobile, Lifan Automobile, Huatai Automobile and Zotye Automobile will enter bankruptcy proceedings at the end of the year, involving the industrial chain of upstream and downstream auto parts suppliers totaling about 50 billion yuan, requiring investigation".

Although, the manufacturers who were later "bankrupt" urgently rumored it, it ended up being an oolong farce. But behind the unfounded, it is the fact that many car companies are in a quagmire.

Take Lifan as an example. Since the second half of this year, it has basically been in a semi-discontinued state, and the monthly output of passenger cars is only a few hundred. Judging from the disclosed data, the cumulative output in the first eight months of this year fell by over 70% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume fell by nearly 70% year-on-year. At the same time, in the first half of this year, it has suffered a huge loss of 947 million, which is on the verge of delisting.

Huatai Automobile sold only 39,000 vehicles 1 1 month before this year, down 63.7% year-on-year. At present, the equity of most subsidiaries of Huatai Automobile has been pledged by financing, and together with many subsidiaries, it has been included in the list of untrustworthy executors, with a total debt of nearly 30 billion yuan.

In addition, in the first 1 1 month of this year, more than 60% of car companies in China experienced a decline in cumulative sales, and dozens of car companies, such as Haima, Du Yun and Dongfeng Renault, experienced a decline of more than 50%.

Under this premise, many car companies in 20 19 are unsustainable and face survival crisis. Besides Lifan, Huatai, BAIC Yinxiang and Ma Jun mentioned above, they are also the laggards in this knockout. It is even more "difficult" to build cars with new energy sources: Future cars, Horizon cars, Bojun cars, Lv Chi cars, Ranger cars and other new car-building forces that exceed 10 are exposed to arrears in wages and debts. All the shares of Zhi Dou Auto have been auctioned off.

With the end of PSA in Chang 'an at the end of the year, the "difficulties" of the 20 19 automobile circle have also come to an end, but the elimination of the automobile industry is far from over.

Save-spend money on the cutting edge

Although under the influence of "cold", only some backward car companies are struggling, but the whole automobile industry has clearly realized the importance of "austerity" in the cold winter. In 20 19, all major automobile groups are greatly reducing their costs. The most intuitive thing is that layoffs have become the mainstream news in the automobile industry.

In the last month when 20 19 is coming to an end, several multinational car companies have added another sum to the tragedy of 20 19 with a "layoff list", which will spread to Germany, the United States, Japan and Britain, and even China and India will not be spared.

First of all, the BBA group, known as the weather vane of automobiles, opened a new round of layoffs:165438+1On October 26th, Audi announced that it would lay off 9,500 employees before 2025, accounting for 10% of the total number of employees. This will save Audi 6 billion euros in the next decade to support enterprises to accelerate the transformation to electrification and digitalization.

Soon, three days later (165438+129 October), Daimler Group also announced that it plans to lay off at least 10000 people worldwide by the end of 2022, accounting for at least 3.3% of the global employees. The company hopes to save about 654,380.4 billion euros through layoffs to fill the cost increase and market brought about by the transformation of automobile electrification.

Although BMW didn't announce a specific layoff plan, it also announced on June 27th 165438 that its management had reached an agreement with the trade union to support the company to develop its electric vehicle business by reducing employee incentives and other compensation schemes. It is reported that BMW is expected to save more than 654.38+0.2 billion euros (about 654.38+0.323 billion US dollars) by 2022 to cope with the cost of electrification transformation and autonomous driving technology. To this end, BMW will significantly cut bonuses and extend the working hours of some employees. The agreement will take effect in 2020.

In addition to Audi and Daimler's recent announcement of layoffs of nearly 20,000 people, in the past year, many enterprises in the upstream and downstream industrial chains of automobiles, represented by automakers such as Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and Nissan, have successively announced layoffs to reduce costs.

On the one hand, it is to lay off staff and reduce costs, on the other hand, it is to put the saved resources into electrification transformation. Although the road of electrification transformation of automobile enterprises is more like a marathon with long obstacles, the prospects of new energy vehicles are considerable.

Judging from the previously announced budget (Volkswagen 60 billion euros), we can know their determination to transform. These days, car companies "tighten their belts to live" should also spend the money saved on the cutting edge, after all, the future prospects are broad.

Joint-joint Lian Heng, reported to the group to keep warm.

After "cold", "difficult" and "province", it is another key word that runs through this year's automobile circle-"combination". Under the dual pressure of the new four modernizations and the "cold winter" of the automobile market, it has become a tacit understanding for automobile enterprises to hold a group and deepen cooperation.

Since the beginning of the year, car companies have been "married". The first is the cooperation of global auto giants. On June 20, 65438, Volkswagen and Ford Motor Company also established a strategic alliance, which is beneficial for the partners of both parties to share the cost of vehicle architecture with unique functions and technologies, thus significantly improving the business scale and operational efficiency. On July 12, audi ag and Ford Motor Company announced that they would extend their global strategic alliance to the fields of electric vehicles and autonomous driving.

On March 28th, Geely and Daimler announced that they would set up a joint venture company to jointly operate and promote the transformation of smart brand on a global scale, and strive to build smart into the world's leading high-end electric smart car brand. The joint venture company is headquartered in China, with each party holding 50% of the shares.

165438+1On October 7th, Toyota and BYD signed a joint venture agreement on establishing a pure electric vehicle research and development company. The new company will be formally established in China in 2020, with 50% contribution from Toyota and 50% contribution from BYD. The signing of the joint venture agreement is a continuation of the battery agreement and EV model agreement reached by both parties this year.

165438+1On October 29th, the Beam automobile project jointly invested by Great Wall Motor and BMW Group was officially launched in Zhangjiagang City, Jiangsu Province. This is also the first joint venture project in China after the liberalization of the joint venture car share ratio, with both parties holding 50% shares.

12 18, Peugeot Citroen Group and Fiat Chrysler Automobile Company signed a merger agreement. According to the agreement, the businesses of the two parties will be merged at a ratio of 50: 50, and the combined new company will have an annual sales volume of 8.7 million vehicles and a revenue of nearly 654.38+07 billion euros (excluding the revenue from FCA Ma Ruili and PSA Faurecia). Based on this calculation, the new company will become the fourth automobile group in the world in sales volume and the third in revenue, second only to Volkswagen, Toyota and Renault-Nissan Alliance.

The cooperation between domestic car companies is also constant. First, FAW, Dongfeng and Chang 'an got together and cooperated with other companies to set up T3 Travel Company with a total investment of 9.76 billion yuan. On August 16, the joint venture company of Jiangling Group, Changan Automobile and Aichi Automobile held a meeting and announced the establishment of the mixed reform of Jiangling Holdings.

19 On February 23rd, SAIC and Guangzhou Automobile Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in Shanghai, which ended the cooperation wave of automobile enterprises in 20 19. According to the framework agreement, the two sides will cooperate in four aspects: jointly developing core technologies, enjoying industrial chain resources, focusing on new business models and jointly expanding overseas markets.

In the cold winter, it is undoubtedly wise to hold a group to keep warm. At this stage, deepening cooperation between car companies and Lian Heng can not only save costs and improve technology through resource sharing, but also help to improve the market competitiveness of their partners.

To sum up, the past 20 19 recession has indeed appeared in all aspects of the automobile circle. However, everything has two sides. The cold winter brings bleak reality, but it also brings new opportunities for the industry. Now look back on 20 19 and look forward to a brand-new 2020, and the future can be expected. Maybe when we look back next year, "hi" may be the word that runs through the car circle in 2020.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.