What impact does the current epidemic have on overseas travel?

All kinds of comments have made investigation reports, and the conclusions have certain basis, but which view is correct is still inconclusive. On this basis, this paper sorts out the two viewpoints and arguments put forward in the above three reports for the reference of people in the tourism industry, so as to better judge and predict the performance of the domestic tourism market under the influence of the epidemic.

In the first half of 2020, the domestic tourism prosperity index of China dropped to-12 1. Under the influence of pneumonia epidemic in COVID-19 in early 2020, it decreased by 146 basis points year-on-year, reaching the lowest level in history. The lowest prosperity index is-150, and this outbreak has had a certain impact on the confidence of the domestic tourism market. During the preparation of the report, the domestic epidemic situation was initially controlled. However, due to the global outbreak, its duration is not clear, and it is expected that it will be difficult to recover quickly in the short term, which will have a great negative impact on the performance expectations of employees in the domestic tourism market in 2020. However, the domestic tourism market has continued to grow strongly in the past decade and has become one of the main driving forces for the development of the national economy. Although the overall economy of China slowed down due to the macroeconomic downturn in 20 19, compared with the number and income of domestic tourists in 20 18, the domestic tourism income increased by 8.4%, and the domestic tourism income increased by 1 1.7%, showing the vitality of the domestic tourism market in China.

Affected by the epidemic, employees are very pessimistic about the overall performance of the domestic tourism market in the first half of 2020. The economic index dropped sharply to-120 compared with a year ago. At the same time, the market expectation of the three indicators dropped significantly compared with the first half of 20 19, among which the expectation of employees on the number of domestic tourists was negative due to the strict management of cities.

In the first half of 2020, employees' confidence in the development of domestic tourism in this institution was also greatly hit. The prosperity index is down 156 points compared with a year ago. At the same time, the prosperity index of their own institutions is slightly lower than the overall market expectation, indicating that employees are pessimistic about the growth of the overall domestic tourism market in the first half of the year, but conservative about the growth of their own institutions. The expected negative value of tourists in China is the highest among the three indicators.

In view of the comprehensive and nationwide impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on confidence, the respondents were pessimistic about the seven items included in this survey. In these surveys, more than 80% of the respondents believe that the COVID-19 epidemic has had a serious negative impact on the development of the domestic tourism market in the first half of the year. Since then, affected by the epidemic, the domestic economic situation is full of uncertainty: the respondents believe that the economic growth trend of China in the first half of the year has had a serious negative impact on the development of the domestic tourism market. Respondents predict that the negative impact of the other five factors will be lower than the economic development level of China and the COVID-19 epidemic, but the average economic index is still below -65.

Looking into the future, China's tourism industry will still be in the golden period of development. With the continuous emergence of new tourism products such as parent-child tour, country tour, ice and snow tour, cultural consumption and tourism activities have increasingly become an indispensable way of life for China people. After the outbreak, the tourism industry is confident to meet the demand of slow outbreak. After the industry reflection and precipitation during the epidemic period, China's indomitable tourism industry and crisis transformation are expected to usher in the simultaneous development of quality and quantity.