How long will it take to recover the impact of the epidemic on tourism?

The COVID-19 epidemic in 2008 caused great losses to the global tourism industry. In particular, almost all domestic tourist attractions and amusement projects are closed, traffic is suspended, and 100% of the tourism industry stops running, which has a huge impact on the tourism industry. So how long will it take for tourism to fully recover after the epidemic?

Recently, the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) released a research report on the global tourism crisis, saying that the average recovery period of the epidemic affecting the tourism industry was 19.4 months.

Last year, the World Tourism and Travel Council cooperated with the American Global Rescue Company, focusing on the analysis of the impact of 90 international crises from 200/KLOC-0 to 2000 on countries and cities, expounding the risks faced by the global tourism industry, putting forward suggestions to deal with the crisis, and extensively collecting the opinions of the government, the non-public sector, destination institutions, international organizations and associations, and scholars. It took eight months to complete this "crisis preparation, management and recovery".

According to the report, with global connectivity, convenient travel and the rise of wealthy people, international tourism has shown a significant growth trend. From 1950 to 2000, the number of international arrivals increased by 5,500%. At the same time, tourism has brought great economic and social benefits to the destination, created millions of employment opportunities, protected natural and cultural wealth, promoted prosperity, reduced poverty and improved education. However, from geopolitical and geo-economic tensions to terrorism, to changing health threats and escalating environmental threats, the world risk pattern is changing, and new risks are constantly reshaping the global ecosystem.

According to the report, the common crises in tourism fall into four categories: terrorism, social unrest, natural disasters and epidemic outbreaks. It is mentioned that out of 90 crises, 12 was an outbreak.

According to the report, the outbreak has become the new normal, and the impact of an epidemic like H 1N 1 on the global economy is estimated to be between 45 billion and 55 billion US dollars. The average recovery period of epidemic disease is 19.4 months, and the time span is 10 to 34.9 months. Terrorism is also a concern of many international travelers.

However, in fact, the probability of becoming a victim of terrorism is very low. Therefore, the tourism industry has rebounded rapidly, and the tourism recovery time in the areas affected by terrorist attacks is the shortest, with an average of 1 1.5 months, ranging from 2 months to 42 months. However, political instability or social unrest is far more harmful to a country's tourism than terrorist attacks. The average recovery time from political instability and civil strife is 22.2 months, and the recovery period ranges from 10 to 44.9 months.

In recent years, the frequency and degree of natural disasters have increased dramatically. From 1970 to 20 16, the number of natural disasters quadrupled, and the longest recovery time ranged from 1 month to 93 months, with an average of 16.2 months.

The report suggests that identifying and understanding various risks is only the first step. Tourism must establish a diversified, dynamic and decentralized risk prevention layout, and implement the overall mechanism of classified policy and classified management.

It will take at least a year for tourism to recover.

Nanfang Daily: How long do you expect the impact time to last?

Bao Jigang: The number of infected people in COVID-19 has far exceeded that of SARS. During the period of SARS, 8422 clinically diagnosed cases and 9 16 deaths were reported in 29 countries around the world. As of 0: 00 on March 3rd, 80 15 1 case was diagnosed nationwide, with 2943 deaths, 20/2010 cases diagnosed overseas and 84 deaths. At present, it is 10.9 times that of SARS. At present, the epidemic prevention and control has achieved phased results, and the number of newly confirmed cases in the country has steadily declined. 16 Since February, there have been less than 10 newly confirmed cases in Guangdong, and there were 0 newly confirmed cases in many provinces and cities nationwide on March 2. But for Hubei, the total number of newly confirmed cases is still very large.

From the perspective of government supervision, there is still uncertainty about the time when tourism will be fully opened. On the other hand, although some local tourist attractions have been opened, there are not many real tourists, and the recovery of tourists' confidence will lag behind. At the same time, compared with other industries, tourism is not the most needed industry.

Without considering other factors, if the epidemic ends in the first half of the year, we can roughly make the following judgment: from the perspective of the cycle of China's economic development and the natural development law of the tourism market, domestic tourism will resume growth in the second half of 20021year, and the scale level will resume or even exceed the same period in 20021year. It will take about a year for tourism to recover.

Core view: the development of global tourism will slow down.

Nanfang Daily: What impact will the COVID-19 epidemic have on the development of international tourism?

Bao Jigang: Internationally, compared with SARS in 2003, the COVID-19 epidemic has a greater impact. According to two data of WTTC World Tourism Council, the losses caused by SARS to global tourism in 2003 were $30-50 billion. In 2003, China people's overseas travel accounted for 65,438+0.5% of the global total. By 20 10, the number of outbound tourists in China will reach 654.38+77 million, accounting for 16% of global tourism consumption. Professor Zhao Jinlin, an American, pointed out in his article that according to incomplete statistics, the COVID-19 epidemic will reduce the short-term tourism income of Southeast Asian countries that rely on China for overseas travel by 30%. Take Thailand as an example. China is the largest tourist source country in Thailand, and the consumption of tourists from China accounts for 2.7% of the GDP. In 2008, tourists from China contributed US$ 654.38+0.8 billion to Thailand, while from 24 October to 365.438+0 October in 2008, the number of tourists from China decreased by 60%, resulting in a loss of US$ 294 million a week. It is estimated that Thailand's income will decrease by 9.7 billion US dollars in June and June. In 2000, tourists from China accounted for 7% of American tourists, and tourists from China spent $34 billion in the United States. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States will lose $654.38+003 billion in tourism economic income.

As far as world tourism is concerned, as China is the main source country of world tourism, its contribution rate to world tourism exceeds 12%, and the impact of this epidemic on world tourism is also enormous. As far as its overall impact is concerned, the development speed of global tourism will slow down this year, with zero or negative growth.

Core view: A temporary crisis can't stop the development of tourism.

Nanfang Daily: After SARS in 2003, the tourism industry maintained double-digit growth for a long time. In your opinion, after the COVID-19 epidemic, can tourism continue to maintain high growth? Will the fundamentals of tourism change?

Bao Jigang: Judging from the situation after all the "disasters" in history (World War I, Great Depression, World War II, earthquake and tsunami, financial crisis and SARS), tourism has not died out, not only has it not died out, but the proportion of tourism in the global economy is growing. Tourism is the embodiment of people's pursuit of a better lifestyle. We can draw a conclusion that tourism will always be a sunrise industry, and a temporary crisis can't stop the development of tourism. This is also the understanding that colleagues in the tourism industry should reach.

From the perspective of tourism recovery, domestic tourism, especially short-distance tourism, is the first to recover, and it will take some time for outbound tourism to recover. Outbound tourism may also be affected by China's foreign exchange earnings, which is positively related to it, and inbound tourism may take longer to recover. At the same time, holiday tourism and natural health tourism will increase substantially; Urban tourism consumption will be more active, and rural tourism around the city will increase substantially; In areas with large geographical scale and low epidemic situation, tourism will be greatly restored; Tourism, especially long-distance tourism, takes some time to recover. Individual travelers, especially families in go on road trip, will recover greatly, while chartered buses and special trains for long-distance travel will recover slowly.

Thoughts on industrial development

Core point of view: tourism losses should not be exaggerated unilaterally.

Nanfang Daily: At present, many media are predicting that the COVID-19 epidemic will lead to a national tourism loss of trillions. What do you think of this judgment?

Bao Jigang: As far as domestic influence is concerned, I think the calculation of some media or experts is too big at present. Their basis is that the total tourism revenue of China in 2008 was 6.5 trillion yuan. The question is, how is 6.5 trillion yuan calculated? The other is the data released by Ctrip, which announced that it is estimated that there will be 450 million trips in China during the Spring Festival in 2008, and the tourism revenue will not be less than 550 billion. however

Core view: "Retaliatory growth" is a false concept.

Nanfang Daily: Many media and think tanks predict that after SARS in 2003, there will be a high probability of retaliatory growth in the tourism consumption market. what do you think?

Bao Jigang: Whether there will be so-called "retaliatory growth" depends on which stage the index is based on, whether it is compared with the current period or the same period last year. Compared with now, it must be retaliatory growth, because now it is zero. But if you say it's compared with last year, it's not necessarily. Is the double-digit growth even retaliatory? We should treat statistics more realistically to understand tourism. Major tourism research think tanks should also do in-depth research in a realistic way, instead of following suit or grandstanding and proposing some practical measures. This is what our think tank should do.

Core view: Take the opportunity to squeeze out the "bubble" of tourism statistics.

Nanfang Daily: If the current media's prediction of tourism losses is unscientific, how should we know the statistical data more scientifically?

Bao Jigang: After the outbreak, we should take the opportunity of "zeroing" in the tourism industry, squeeze out the bubble of statistics, know the tourism industry realistically, and introduce the geographical scale for statistics, that is, count tourists according to the geographical scale of provinces, cities and counties. The current disadvantage is that a lot of data are superimposed together. A Hunan tourist arrived in Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhuhai, and all three places counted him in the number of tourists. Finally, counting the number of tourists, one person becomes three, which will have a superposition effect, resulting in the data inconsistent with the actual situation. After introducing the regional scale, we can calculate the data of tourists from other provinces more accurately by counting the number of people from other provinces to Guangdong according to the trajectory.

The data may also be a bubble. Take students as an example. Among the first-year undergraduates in the Tourism College of Sun Yat-sen University, 80% have more than two mobile phone numbers, one in their hometown and the other in their study area. Such dual-card dual-standby makes the number of tourists in telecom data calculation increase in disguise. In addition, people who take the high-speed train and drive in expressway, such as those who travel from Guangzhou to Kunming and pass through Guangxi and Guizhou, are recorded as tourists in Guangxi and Guizhou, but actually do not spend money in Guangxi and Guizhou. Take Spring Festival travel rush Peak as an example. Returnees are counted in the number of tourists, but the consumption of accommodation and catering will be lower than that of normal tourists. Therefore, after the epidemic, we have the opportunity to start from scratch and get a more scientific and accurate data for tourism research and decision-making.

Core point: Re-recognize the fragility of tourism.

Nanfang Daily: Many people say that tourism is a sunrise industry, but it is also a fragile industry. How to understand the fragility of tourism?

Bao Jigang: Tourism has its very fragile side. Any emergency has a very direct and serious impact on the tourism industry, and the industry risk is very high. Tourism products can't be stored, unlike cars and food. I can't sell it today, but I can sell it tomorrow. If you can't sell it in one place, you can sell it in another place. Compared with other industries, this is the weakness of tourism. Therefore, tourism demand is sensitive and tourism industry is fragile, but the fragility of the industry does not mean that there is no vitality or potential for future development.

Core view: The current tourism investment model is too heavy.

Nanfang Daily: In recent years, tourism has shown the characteristics of large investment and long cycle, but the fragility makes the risk of tourism enterprises too high. How should we look at this problem?

Bao Jigang: While talking about fragility, the academic circles have recently talked more about resilience, that is, the resilience of tourism destinations or products after the crisis. In fact, the tourism we talked about before is characterized by less investment, quick results and low cost, which is just the opposite of the current situation. In the primary stage of tourism development, it actually shows the characteristics of * * * enjoying economy. Take Yangshuo as an example, the tourism industry began to sell beer and food with its own facade, freeing up two rooms for accommodation, which means less investment. Later, when the economy developed well, the pursuit of five-star hotels and even hotels with international brands became a big investment.

Therefore, under the cognition of vulnerability and resilience, it is necessary to consider that the carrying capacity of different tourism enterprises is different. For example, the current BB is becoming more and more high-end, which shows its fragility in the face of the epidemic. Should we consider the earliest flexible tourism model with less investment, quick results and high returns, that is, return to alternative development and inclusive development from an academic point of view, rather than blindly pursuing the amount of investment?

Core view: provide better public management services.

Nanfang Daily: In your opinion, after the outbreak, from what aspects should cultural and tourism departments at all levels formulate and introduce relevant policies to effectively stimulate the demand-side market and help the tourism industry recover its industrial vitality?

Bao Jigang: I am more concerned about whether there will be mass layoffs and whether many people will lose their jobs. There are 28.26 million direct employees in tourism, and 79,965,438+million direct and indirect employees in tourism, accounting for 10.29% of the total employed population in China. When tourism employment is stable, the employment fundamentals of the country will be stable to a great extent, and the society will be more stable.

As for how to restore the vitality of the industry, I don't think the government has much motivation. As long as the economy develops steadily, tourism will rise. There is also the "consumption tax legislation" mentioned by the state last year. It is estimated that the adoption and implementation of the National People's Congress this year will stimulate local governments to pay substantial attention to tourism development, because tourism consumption can be directly reflected in local taxes. Therefore, the most important thing for the government is to provide better public management services after controlling the epidemic, because no matter what happens this time, the demand for tourism will still exist. At the same time, from the perspective of industrial development, we should adjust the basic thinking of the construction of tourism supply system, replace "sightseeing" with "tourism" and promote the construction of tourism supply system.