The oversold rebound momentum has weakened, is it necessary to adjust the position?

On Friday, the three major A-share stock indexes fluctuated all day. The total turnover of the two cities was 9 183 billion yuan; The net selling amount of northbound funds is 31.1.70 billion yuan. Disk observation: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textiles and clothing, tourism and other sectors were among the top gainers; Health care, electrical equipment and wine-making sectors were among the top losers. At the close: the Shanghai Composite Index fell1.65,438+07% to 32 12.24 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.89% to 12072.73 points; The GEM index fell 2.52% to 2,637.94 points.

market outlook

In terms of stock index, the recovery oversold rebound that started last week has weakened the upward momentum. This week, the market kept shrinking and fluctuating, and the short-term rebound pressure was high (today, some funds chose to leave the market for fear of unstable weekend news); However, although there is a demand for the index to step back, the downside space is limited, so it is necessary to pay attention to the gap support (about 3200 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, about 12000 points for the Shenzhen Component Index, and about 2640 points for the Growth Enterprise Market); Because we believe that the market is already at a low level, the future monetary and credit policies are still in a moderate state, and the steady growth continues to increase. Whether it is waiting for incremental funds to enter the market to break through the upward trend or may usher in benign technical adjustment, it is the window period of strategic allocation at this stage.

In terms of sectors, the main line is still concentrated on the varieties with a large degree of over-decline in the previous period. However, after the oversold rebound, some short-term bargain-hunting funds chose to leave at a profit, and the new funds were not strong enough for the time being; For example, the medical and medical (CXO, testing) sector that we commented on yesterday was among the top losers today; However, the pharmaceutical sector has rebounded for some time, and we recommend it for more than one or two days. It is expected that this sector will continue to be concerned by market funds in the coming second quarter.

Today, let's talk about another department we mentioned, agriculture. Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Finance have clearly defined the key tasks of grain production in 2022, fully implemented a package of supporting policies and measures such as subsidies, incentives and finance (nine points, not to mention), and asked all localities to go all out to ensure a bumper harvest of summer wheat, do everything possible to expand soybean oil crops, make every effort to ensure another bumper harvest of grain throughout the year, pay close attention to ensuring the stability and supply of agricultural materials, do a good job in agricultural disaster prevention and reduction, stabilize the basic agricultural sector, and promote stable and healthy economic and social development. This may also be one of the reasons why the agricultural sector performed relatively well today.

Operation strategy

In operation, short-term investors can appropriately reduce the previous bargain-hunting positions and wait for the market to stabilize again, while long-term investors can continue to hold positions and wait and see. Pay attention to sectors whose performance in the first quarter is expected to improve or are less affected by the external environment; Such as the big cycle of inflation expectations (nonferrous metals, resources, infrastructure, energy), high-end manufacturing technology (new energy, computers, semiconductors, military industry), and large consumption of economic recovery (agriculture, liquor, CXO, testing).

Zhao, chief investment consultant of GF Securities, with the license number of S02606 140600 14.