What opportunities and challenges have the changes in the Middle East brought to China?

The changes in the Middle East have both opportunities and challenges for China's diplomacy. My personal judgment is that opportunities far outweigh challenges.

First of all, the war in Libya is intertwined, and the turmoil in the Middle East is difficult to calm down in a short time. In the face of the chaos in the Middle East, the western countries began to focus on promoting democratization in the Middle East, lost their determination and began to go into battle lightly. Now the situation in Libya is out of control. Even if a ceasefire is achieved in the future, western countries will have to pay a huge price, especially the growing distrust in the Arab world.

Secondly, with the deduction of the current situation, the root causes of the chaos in the Middle East will become clearer. Personally, I firmly believe that the root of the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is not so much the awakening of democratic consciousness as the adverse geopolitical consequences brought about by the financial crisis. However, western countries misjudged and made subjective assumptions. Therefore, this turmoil and the mistakes of the West are objectively beneficial to the attractiveness of China, especially the attractiveness of China's economic development model to the Middle East and North Africa.

Finally, the turmoil in the Middle East will further expose the defects of the western prescription for democratization. Similar to Libya's intervention, the west has launched many times, and the results are not satisfactory. I think this time will be no exception. And even if democracy is achieved, it does not mean that these countries can enter the club of rich countries. You know, democratic countries will not automatically become successful countries. "Democratic countries" will also fail, and the risk of failure is higher. In this world where success or failure is the hero, even if the poor embrace the rich, they can't join the rich club, but they become the laughing stock without exception.

At present, China's diplomacy needs to do something about the current situation in the Middle East. What can't be done is to get involved too early, come uninvited and lose the initiative. I think something should be done, mainly in two aspects. First, take the opportunity to consolidate relations with Russia, in fact, not only Russia, but also Turkey and Central Asian countries, with a long-term view, to build a Eurasian continental bridge. In this way, even if something happens in the southeast in the future, we will not hesitate.

The second is to quietly carry out public diplomacy in the Middle East. China's gradual realization of democracy on the basis of its own development will inspire countries with similar needs in the world, and democracy can only bear fruitful results if it is built on the fertile soil of economic prosperity. In other words, "development+democracy" is the last word. Democracy, freedom and human rights are all very important. No country can ignore their values, but it cannot be a superstition of the times. They must go hand in hand with other values and cannot be achieved overnight. This is probably the paradox of history.