Is Macau greatly affected by the epidemic? Can I travel to Macau now?

Macau is a very wealthy small city in my country with unique cultural charm and historical background. Its historical monuments, large buildings, shopping and entertainment industries have attracted a large number of tourists from all over the world, making it a tourist destination. As Asia's top tourist destination, the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in 2019 on Macau is still very large.

For a city where the gaming industry accounts for more than 50% of GDP, what does it mean to close all casinos in the city for half a month?

The empty MGM hall< /p>

If you do not consider tourism, do not consider hotels, do not consider food and beverage retail, and only count casinos, and consider that the business of casinos is evenly distributed throughout the year - then closing the casinos for half a month means that the city GDP fell by 4%. If the spillover effects of gambling on other industries are taken into account, the losses will be even greater.

Wouldn’t the newly appointed Chief Executive Mr. Ho Iat Seng settle this account? No, he knows much better than we do. But why do we still need to close the casino? Because we can’t do it without closing it.

1. Today’s Macau, I feel sad for you

Today’s Macau seems to have taken off its makeup. Without the crowds of tourists, the shops and cultural relics seemed to have lost their energy. Set against the blue sky that is about to rain, it is very sad.

Never before have the whole view of Ruins of St. Paul's been so clearly lined up, and the small alleys on the main island of Macau have never been so deserted.

The Longhuan Portuguese charm of Guanye Street has also lost its former bustle.

Who set up the lanterns and colored lights in front of the Senado?

On the old street near Shiliupu, the shops closed early.

As night falls, people on the street can be counted.

The casino hall was empty.

The sky in Venice is always so deep; but where are the people reveling in the vacation under the sky?

The shopping mall is also empty and very disappointing.

Overlooking the MGM casino lobby.

At the exit port of Zai Wharf, there is not a single passenger, not a single one.

All flights between Hong Kong and Macau have been cancelled. Only two flights to and from Shenzhen, Shekou and Fuyong are still in operation.

The Hong Kong-Macao Flight and Shenzhen-Macao Clippers, which are usually full, were also empty today.

In those years, when violent typhoons like Mangkhut and Hato hit me, I never worried about Macau’s economy; but this time the epidemic is so fierce that Macau is really a bit worried.

Once again, a city where the gaming industry accounts for more than 50% of GDP is closing its casinos for half a month! If the epidemic had not been fierce and there was a risk of spreading, it would never have made such a decision.

In fact, when people discuss Wenzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other hardest-hit areas outside Hubei, they ignore Macau, a city that is no less severe than Shanghai, Shenzhen and Ou.

In this epidemic, Macau discovered its first confirmed case on January 22. As of today, the number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in Macau has increased to 10. For this city with a total population of less than 700,000, this diagnosis rate is not low. It should be noted that the population of Hong Kong next door is 10 times that of Macau (7 million), and there are only 10 confirmed cases.

It may be more vivid to put it this way: the infection ratio in Macau is comparable to the 300 confirmed cases in Beijing and Shanghai with a population of 20 million. cases, which is very close to the 150-200 confirmed cases in Guangzhou and Shenzhen with a population of 10 million.

Although the Macau government has taken a series of measures before this, such as starting from January 24. Visitors are required to fill in a health declaration when entering Macau; and restrictions on entry of people from Hubei into Macau will be imposed from 0:00 on January 27, 2020. However, the effect is not obvious.

The root cause is the problem. In the casino.

2. The source of infection of the Macau epidemic - casinos

The casino is highly closed, and gamblers stay there for a long time (often staying all night, which is why the virus It provides an excellent space for the spread of the virus. It should be noted that the epidemic in the department store in Baodi District, Tianjin, was caused by a virus carrier who shopped there for three hours and infected all the surrounding stores.

Therefore, the source of infection in Macau is not elsewhere, but the casino!

So some people will say that the strict entrance to the casino will be finished soon? Isn’t it enough to take your temperature and declare your health record before entering?

I tell you, it’s not enough.

Look at the extent of the decline in the number of tourists in Macau during the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the number of visitors to Macau every day dropped from 56,000 on the first day to the last day. 17,000, a sharp decline. The total number of tourists visiting Macao during the Spring Festival fell by 78% year-on-year!

And there were even fewer mainland tourists, from 33,000 on the first day of spring to even 10,000 on the last day. Less than. The total number of mainland tourists fell by 83% during the entire Spring Festival!

The number of tourists has dropped so much, but it has not been able to effectively control the epidemic. According to the previous analysis, the proportion of confirmed cases in Macao is the same as that of Wenzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai. At the same level, there is already a trend of small outbreaks. The problem is not tourism now. So where is the problem?

Yes, the problem is with gamblers.

Of course, normal gambling. Naturally, the guests and those who gambled away Yiqing will not go now. It is important to stay at home to save their lives.

But there are a large number of gamblers in casinos who are not normal people - those who have gambling debts, those who are addicted to drugs, and those who have other hobbies besides gambling

Take gambling debts Let’s talk about it. Although they don’t have to worry about having too much debt, few of them can honestly rely on the stable cash flow from work to repay the debt in installments. Some of them will never be able to repay the debt in their lifetime: for such people, he can only continue to gamble, or even It is to increase the stakes and bet, hoping to recoup the capital and pay off the debt.

To be honest, for such a gambler, not to mention a virus, not even mountains of swords or seas of fire can stop him. He could take enough antipyretics and hide his medical history just to be able to return to the gambling table.

For such people, there is only one way:

Closing the place.

It is estimated that the Macau government and gaming industry authorities have thought carefully about this logic many times before ordering the closure of casinos today.

After seeing the closure of casinos in Macau, which is similar to an economic "suicide", I really feel that the "delayed resumption of work" and "delayed opening of schools" in many mainland cities are relatively mild. But this also reflects the Macau authorities’ nervousness about the epidemic from another aspect. Macau has a small population. Once the epidemic breaks out, the consequences will be disastrous.

3. If there had been no epidemic

The Macau of the past was a shadow of Hong Kong. However, in recent years, Macau has gradually shed its low-key image and gradually entered the spotlight. In the past year, Macau has become popular twice.

The first time was the plan to establish the "Macau Stock Exchange" (Aojiao Exchange) in October - to make Macau the "Nasdaq" of offshore RMB; the second time was in December The party and the country’s policy positioning on building Macau into a financial center in March. In fact, before this, many issues of Chinese government and financial bonds denominated in offshore RMB have been issued in Macau.

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As more and more favorable policies are concentrated in Macao, a small city with a population of 700,000, people are beginning to look forward to the shape of Macao’s future industrial structure.

In fact, in Prior to this, Macau's economic transformation was already underway. After a series of events such as the tobacco control law taking effect in 2012, the anti-corruption campaign in 2014, and the tightening of Chinese passport transit restrictions, Macau's VIP business revenue has continued to decline, accounting for 20% of the total. 66% to 46.7% in the first quarter of this year.

Since then, Macau has slowly transformed from a traditional casino focusing on high-end consumption + VIP business to a more popular comprehensive tourism and entertainment city. Transformation.

In recent years, Chinese residents have become more pragmatic and rational in their consumption. As a result, there are fewer wealthy people visiting Macau, while ordinary people are no longer spending as much as before. They are also shopping for jewelry and luxury goods, and are turning to discounted cosmetics and souvenir foods.

If there had been no epidemic, six gaming companies would have completed their new properties in Cotai, and tourists would have wandered around the Venetian, Taking pictures of Parisian and other landmarks, there is an atmosphere of revelry everywhere.

As an industry leader, Sands still leads the transformation of Macau, with 5 casinos, 130 restaurants, 794 stores, and a theater with 18,650 seats. and Variety Hall, which will be very popular during the Spring Festival.

The Ferrari car and luxury toy exhibitions in City of Dreams, and the concerts at MGM will attract a large number of people.

Wynn Macau's best high-end mass market property on the Macau Peninsula is still under renovation and will be completed early this year.

Wynn Palace has more convenient transportation and has become a popular place for tourists. It is located next to the city. The "Cotai East Station" of the light rail can be reached by taking the light rail from the extended section of the high-speed rail to Hengqin.

SJM's first large-scale integrated resort project - the high-end family-style design. Lisboa may be completed as scheduled in the third quarter of this year. It will take a year and a half to apply for a license, and it is expected to open in 2021.

If there was no epidemic, more than half of the tourists would come from Guangdong. Here, there will also be tourists from cities with higher GDP per capita and lower tourist penetration rates, including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Wuhan, Hubei.

They will linger in the colorful Portuguese style. The small houses, the almost extinct tin houses, the egg tarts from Andrew’s Bakery during the holidays, and the fish egg stalls full of neighborhood flavor will all be crowded with people again, including Ruins of St. Paul’s, Guanye Street, St. Francis Church, and On the fifth day of the lunar month, the streets are crowded with people. If you are lucky, you might even catch the parade floats and dragon and lion dances here.

If there is no epidemic, local and surrounding transportation in Macau will still operate, including the Macau Light Rail, Guangzhou-Zhuhai Light Rail, Taipa Ferry Terminal, and the Hengqin Light Rail that was just put into use last year. The traffic flow on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge will continue day and night. Without stopping. The back garden of Hengqin, this one-hour ecological circle of Zhuhai, Macao and Hong Kong, will be peaceful during the Spring Festival.

If there had been no epidemic, more tourists would choose to stay in Macau when the infrastructure is gradually improving. Gaming companies with stronger reception capacity and more abundant room supply are expected to make a profit during this Spring Festival. If the cup is overflowing, it will also contribute an average daily gross gaming revenue of 800 million patacas to Macau.

If there was no epidemic, in this casino city where the gaming employment population accounts for as high as 25% of the total employment, nearly 100,000 people would still be working in the casino, and they could safely earn an average monthly salary of 20,000 The salary is Macau patacas, and by the way, I look forward to the government’s bonus, and the casino’s Spring Festival bonus will be great.

However, an epidemic suddenly broke out and disrupted the rhythm of the city.

4. Coming out of the haze

When I left Macau, it started to rain. The drizzle obscured all the details, leaving only a vague outline. There were fewer people on the streets and the street lights seemed dim.

Macau’s current economic structure relies heavily on tourists. From the development of the epidemic to now, mainland tourists have dropped sharply, casino business has been bleak, and vitality has been severely damaged. But casinos, which have remained open, remain at the heart of the virus's spread. At this moment, the Macau government chooses to cure the virus and close the casinos to completely cut off all channels for the spread of the virus.

Again, Macau’s decision to close casinos today is very necessary and timely. For this city with extremely high population density and large mobility of people, once cases of human-to-human transmission occur, the consequences will be disastrous.

But I still firmly believe that the gloom will eventually dissipate, and Macau, a unique town, can regain its former charm and style.

Hope that time is not too far away. God bless China.

All photos in this article were provided by Xingzhe Sun.