What factors have caused the current situation in the Middle East?

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First of all , what cannot be skipped is the role of Britain and France since World War I - this is inseparable from the rise of nationalism in the Middle East.

At the beginning of the twentieth century, the Ottoman Empire, which was eyeing by the great powers, was pitiful. But poor people must be hateful. The bigger problem of the empire is that the internal politics are authoritarian and corrupt. The Young Turks tried to change all this, but despite overthrowing the reigning Sudan, the ensuing oligarchic rule brought new troubles - they began to pursue pro-German policies externally and promoted further "Turkization" internally. Measures were taken to strictly suppress the opportunities for other ethnic groups, including the Arabs, who constituted the majority of the empire's population, to have their voices heard.

The outbreak of World War I naturally brought the Ottoman Empire and Germany to stand on a united front. However, what is staggering is that the first wave of direct attacks by the Commonwealth army against Turkey ended in a disastrous defeat. The former "Sick Man of West Asia" actually returned to his glory on the beach of Gallipoli -_- The most tragic thing is that of the Commonwealth The ANZACs in the army traveled half way around the world to get here, but as soon as they landed, they were suppressed in a temporary bunker that was better than nothing by artillery fire commanded by Kemal (yes, the founding father of Turkey who later vigorously promoted all-round westernization). , a few days later, corpses were strewn all over the field, and it was impossible to see them. . . Now you can't blame the British for starting to increase their tactics. It should be noted that in addition to relying on the army and the Royal Navy for hundreds of years, their most powerful weapon is the diplomatic alliance. The British contacted the French, Russians, Italians, Arabs and Jews at the same time, and made separate contacts and made separate promises. Although the conditions of the promises were obviously conflicting with each other, it did not prevent the British from using basically the same methods in these five scenes. line - As long as you can help me defeat the Turks, the Middle East will be your and my world from now on. What, you are still hesitating? I, the British Empire, rely on credibility to travel the world. Every time, the people of the world fail me. When have you ever seen me fail the people of the world? Um?

Everyone knows the subsequent story - including the marvelous "Lawrence of Arabia" - which ended with the Turks and Hans, and several Arab monarchies were established. began to rise, and the Zionists also began to gain a firm foothold in Palestine. At this time, Britain seemed to regard itself as the protector of Arab nationalism and Jewish nationalism - well, times have changed. We are no longer the old empire that went to America to expand its territory three hundred years ago. Britain is now the protector of Arab nationalism and Jewish nationalism. The progressive forces of the oppressed nations striving for liberation.

But the good times did not last long. When the British felt good about themselves, a fatal question arose: What should we do if the nationalist liberation movements of these oppressed nations conflict with each other? ——

If Arab nationalists do not want to see a Jewish state emerge in Palestine, what should you do in the UK?

If there are conflicts between the new Arab countries under your protection, what should you do in the UK?

And if a group of pan-Arabists oppose the establishment of independent states in various places and believe that all Arabs should belong to the same motherland, what should you do in the UK?

. . . . . .

Yes, all these ifs became a reality after World War I. So we can see that Britain’s policy towards the Middle East has been swinging since World War I (London: What is continuity? Can it be eaten?): On the Palestinian issue, it first issued the "Balfour Declaration" that was beneficial to the Jews. Twenty years later, he published the "White Paper" that suppressed the Jews; first he supported Iraq's independence and self-reliance, and then worked desperately to pull Kuwait out of the track of merger with Iraq; first it was willing to maintain cooperation with the pan-Arabists led by Nasser, Then they fought with Egypt in the Suez Canal War. . . The narcissism of "speaking up for weak nations" is nothing but an illusion. The British themselves are increasingly aware that they are constantly tearing down the east wall to make up for the west wall. The possibility of mutual prosperity between Britain and all parties in the Middle East has come to naught, and now it can only reluctantly safeguard its immediate interests through adaptability again and again.

Of course, the situation of the French is not much better, let alone Algeria, the eternal pain in the hearts of the French. In the greater Syria area, the French also encountered endless troubles, so they simply divided the place into six "countries" for separate control. Except for Hatay, which was later incorporated into Turkey, and Lebanon, which was an independent country, the impression of the French was not that bad. The remaining four "countries" - Damascus, Aleppo, Alawi and Druze The fight between countries has never stopped. Moreover, everyone has forgotten the oppression of Ottoman Turkey. They just feel that during the Ottoman period, everyone could at least respect each other on the surface. All the problems now seem to have arisen only after the French came. Later, the remaining four countries reluctantly merged to form the Syrian Republic, and finally got rid of French rule in 1947.

(Chart of the French mandate in Syria, in which Sanjak of Alexandretta is Hatay, which was later merged into Turkey... From this picture, you can see the clues of today's Syrian civil war that continues to drag on. ) (The map of the French mandate in Syria, in which Sanjak of Alexandretta is Hatay, which was later merged into Turkey... From this picture, you can see the clues of the ongoing Syrian civil war today)

< p>In addition, the banners later raised by various regions include Kurdish nationalism, Assyrian nationalism, Phoenician nationalism, and Pharaonic nationalism (you read that right... this is a kind of Egypt) Nationalism - the belief that Egyptians are all descendants of the Pharaohs and should have nothing to do with Arabs). . . In short, since the end of World War I, both Britain and France have gradually realized that in the Middle East, the "revolutionary wave" of nationalism has arisen due to their support, but the various variants that have subsequently evolved have become increasingly The more it is beyond the control of one's own hands.

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< p>(2) Let’s talk about the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union (China) during the Cold War - the impact of ideology and national interests on the Middle East

By the end of World War II, both Britain and France began to bleed out due to the internal injuries of the war. A global retreat. We generally take it for granted that the two emerging powers, the United States and the Soviet Union, are busy hoping that the two old guys will leave as soon as possible so that they can quickly fill the void left by them. However, the fact is that both the United States and the Soviet Union were stunned by the speed at which Britain and France fled. Neither of them were mentally prepared... The Americans originally hoped that these two NATO partners could last longer in several key areas. As a result, the British moved in too quickly and directly threw the Palestinian issue to the United Nations. , causing the Arabs and Jews to start fighting as soon as they saw that the situation was about to change. After the war, the two sides became more resentful, which laid the consequences for the continuous war and conflicts in the following decades (more on this below).

We should just run away, but halfway through, the two old guys, the British and the French, felt that they had regained their strength and started various counterattacks. Now the United States and the Soviet Union were not happy. They had agreed to let us What does it mean to be a successor? What do you mean by killing them back? Therefore, during the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956, the United States and the Soviet Union successfully drove Britain and France out by applying pressure, and then began to compete with each other.

At the beginning, both sides believed that they were fighting for a better tomorrow (how did this passionate sense of conflict come about...), and each believed that they represented the ideology (the Soviet Union =Communism + Halo Bonus: Empire of Justice vs. United States = Liberalism + Halo Bonus: Empire of Liberty) is the brightest path for human society in the future. In terms of specific operations, both sides have expressed support for national liberation, so the Zionists and the Pan-Arabists headed by Nasser may gain unanimous support from both sides at a certain period of time. But later the situation escalated and the conflicts became irreconcilable. All parties in the Middle East had to make a choice between the two. The Soviet Union accuses the United States of being a variant of imperialism, and everything the United States supports is the remnant of colonial feudalism; the United States accuses the Soviet Union of being an escalation of authoritarianism, and everything the Soviet Union supports is the remnant of cruelty and inhumanity. China also jumped into the trap in the mid-to-late 1950s. It began to scold the United States and then the Soviet Union. As long as you carry the banner of Maoism, you are my good brother. Money and weapons instructors have enough control.

But after the mid-1960s, ideological distinctions were no longer so important - it was so troublesome to find friends just by shouting slogans. Now, as long as it is in line with the best interests of the country and helps me to death Just the superpower on the other side will do.

The Arab monarchies in the Gulf region are staunchly anti-Soviet and oil-producing, so of course they can be allies of the United States. If you say that Saudi Arabia has a little bit of liberal tendencies, I would be confused. Syria is close to the Soviet Union and can be used as a springboard, but it is staunchly anti-American, so even if it revives The party is massacring communists everywhere, and Moscow can turn a blind eye and continue to support Damascus;

China's transformation in the early 1970s was similar. As long as it could make a small amount of money, Who cares if your family kills brothers and turns against mother-in-law and daughter-in-law? I have always wondered whether soldiers on both sides during the Iran-Iraq war would often wonder why the various (low-end) equipment of the navy, army and air force seized from the other side had the same factory numbers as their own. TM is so similar - of course they don't know that in the distant grasslands of Inner Mongolia, the North China Tank Manufacturing Factory, which was so poor that it could only rely on temporary production of refrigerators to maintain operations because "the army has to endure", now often has to worry about how to survive in one day. When receiving two groups of buyers from Iran and Iraq, they must not see each other. The most common solution is for group A to watch the grasslands and ride horses and eat whole sheep in the morning, group B to negotiate for the sale of tanks, and groups AB to swap in the afternoon. . .

Of course the two old gangsters, the United States and the Soviet Union, will not fare much better. No matter what your position is, as long as you are firmly anti-American/anti-Soviet in the Middle East, the benefits will certainly not be too small; of course, if you waver or are not close to each other, you are very likely to find a large amount of US dollars and rubles flowing in at the same time, or a large number of rubles flying in at the same time. Grenade missiles. The Cold War lasted for decades, greatly worsening the regional situation. Neither liberalism nor communism could take root here. Instead, it accelerated the rise of Islamic extremism later. All kinds of things were originally going to be swept into history. The remnants in the garbage heap are truly resurrected.

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< p>(3) Arab-Israeli Conflict, “Arab Cold War” and Sectarian Strife

The impact of internal conflicts in the Middle East on today was originally discussed in three parts, but now I think it can be discussed together It's more convenient, because the three of them are actually you, me, and you, fighting each other until the sea is gone. . . The most straightforward cause of the Arab-Israeli conflict is that the Jews said this place used to be mine and I have nowhere to go now, so I am coming back. The Arabs said you won’t come back for thousands of years and they kicked you out back then. It's not us who are leaving. If you say you're going to come back, come back. So what should we do? You hurry up and go wherever you like - so you start swinging. . .

Of all the Arabs who are dissatisfied with the establishment of the state of Israel, the most dissatisfied are of course the supporters of Nasserism and the Ba'athists in Iraq/Syria, because to put it bluntly, the values ??of Nasserism and the Baath Party The core is Pan-Arabism. Everything from Iraq to Morocco should belong to a unified Arab country. What does it mean for you, the Jewish-dominated state of Israel, to be inserted in my life gate? However, other Arab countries, especially the Arab monarchies whose top priority is to maintain their respective royal powers, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc., feel that Israel is not so annoying because of the scabies disease. In comparison, Nasser and the others are A personal problem.

This is the beginning of the so-called "Arab Cold War" - a man who said revolution is great, all Arabs unite to break the shackles! One person said that tradition is good, but it’s more important for everyone to just make a living by extracting oil and farming! ——On the surface, both sides are shouting to defeat Israel, but in fact, when they fight each other, they are wholehearted. Egypt and Saudi Arabia supported the so-called "revolutionary party" on one side and the "royalist party" on the other. The two sides fought many times in North Yemen, and even poison gas bombs were used in the fight (historians are still arguing about this, of course... ). Today we see that the situation in Yemen is in such chaos. The president was beaten away and went to Saudi Arabia for help. It is simply a replica of the time when the royal family went to Saudi Arabia for help.

Although the "Arab Cold War" uses the name "Cold War", in fact it is a constant battle, and it is basically a relatively primitive job of killing one thousand enemies at the expense of eight hundred. For modern warfare The actual improvement in combat power that is needed is not helpful at all. When Israel felt that it was on the verge of life and death because of Nasser's war threats, and decided to make a desperate move to preemptively attack Egypt in 1967, it was surprised to find that Egypt on the other side had placed a large number of its main forces in distant Yemen instead of those close to Israel. Sinai Peninsula, and even the Egyptian army stationed in Sinai thought they were facing a group of royalist "rebels" from Yemen who did not know how to use tanks. . . Israel has always been fearful and prepared for war, thinking that it would face an armed force as terrifying as the Soviet army. It did not expect that it would face such a pig opponent now. It was not difficult for the Arab coalition forces to be beaten out of the Six-Day War. Got it.

By the late 1970s, pan-Arabism, which was relatively secular in nature, had been discredited by Israel. After decades of hard work, many Arabs suddenly found that their country was still oppressing internally and warring externally, and as always, the internal war was fought by insiders and outsiders. Except for a few powerful and upstarts, the lives of the vast majority of the people have not changed. The beautiful vision they once supported with enthusiasm is nothing but a dream. As a result, religious factors naturally began to revive and began to regain the right to speak in the political life of various countries in the Middle East.

The sectarian issue that has always been bloody in history has become more prominent at this time, and this time even Iran, which is not an Arab country, has been involved in a series of contradictions including the Arab-Israeli conflict. With the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the Pahlavi dynasty overthrew, King Khomeini returned, and Shia-dominated Iran began to export revolution. The entire Sunni world (especially a few Sunnis occupying the upper echelons, but even The Gulf countries and Iraq, where the Ye faction has the majority population, went berserk in an instant. In order to suppress Iran, all countries contributed money and efforts. The Iran-Iraq war was bloody, but Iran still survived. After more than ten years of healing, he took advantage of the opportunity of the United States to defeat Saddam Hussein to expand his influence again. Of course, the Sunni world will not sit idly by, so in today's Syria and Yemen, we can see various strong counterattacks against the Shia regime.

(In March 2015, Saudi Arabia carried out an air strike on Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, which is controlled by the Shia-dominated Houthi armed forces. As a result, the missile fell into the refugee camp and killed more than 40 people. The scene was in ruins. )(In March 2015, Saudi Arabia carried out an air strike on Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, which is controlled by the Shia-dominated Houthi armed forces. As a result, the missile fell into the refugee camp and killed more than 40 people. The scene was in ruins)

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In the last half century, all Middle Eastern countries are facing huge troubles, and no one can escape alone. In addition to the "big power" games mentioned above, various countries and organizations have formed intricate networks due to so many years of turmoil. For example, in the small country of Lebanon, Israel supports Maronite Christians; Hamas, Iran and the local The Ye faction supports Hezbollah; the Gulf countries, the Assad family, which once dominated Syria, and the Palestine Liberation Army support various Sunni organizations. . . Without the strong intervention of external forces, civil strife/re-civil strife in many countries in the Middle East can only be said to be a matter of time.

Therefore, it is unrealistic and irresponsible to use one factor to summarize the cause of the current chaos in the Middle East. The internal disputes among countries, ethnic groups and sects were already unbearable, and the external intervention of middle powers such as Britain, France, the United States and the Soviet Union brought unexpected radiation. Today's Middle East, based on the above five factors, is constantly evolving new and more shocking variants - yes, I am talking about ISIS.

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< p>It can only be said

The Middle East is originally a glass ball full of cracks.

In the past century, all of us have worked together to completely smash it.

And now, each of us may get cut on the soles of our feet by the glass shards on the floor