What will be the new development of 20 14 tourism model?

(1) external macro environment 1, the "deepening reform" proposed by the Third Plenary Session will promote the development of tourism. With the convening of the Third Plenary Session, the reform dividend will be released to a greater extent, and China will maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of around 7% by 2020. The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that the GDP and the per capita income of urban and rural residents would "double" in 2020 compared with 20 10. Thanks to the upgrading of consumption, China's tourism consumption has entered the era of popularization, and it is in the stage of transformation from sightseeing to leisure vacation. It is predicted that the prospect of tourism industry in 20 14 years is optimistic. 2. The complex external environment restricts the height of the industry rebound to a certain extent, but it also provides more investment opportunities for the theme. In the context of the country's determined efforts to promote economic restructuring and expand domestic demand, tourism is expected to become the leading industry in the consumer economy due to the large number of related industries. Looking forward to 20 14, in the short term, the rebound of the industry may be restricted by the "three public consumption" and the low GDP growth rate, but in the long term, the state is expected to introduce a plan to promote the development of tourism, further release the potential of tourism consumption and benefit the long-term development of tourism. (II) Forecast of Tourism Development According to the forecast of CITIC Securities, the number of tourists and income growth in China will reach 65,438+065,438+0.6% and 65,438+04.7% in 2065,438+04. The rebound of industry prosperity is a high probability event. Mass consumption will become the main driving force for the future growth of tourism. 20 14 China tourism "three tours" market index forecast data source: The National Bureau of Statistics and CITIC Securities Research Department predict that in the long run, under the background of the central government's economic transformation, tourism will become the main beneficiary of future economic development. According to WTTC forecast, China will become the fastest growing country in the global tourism market in the next decade. 2013-comparison of tourism consumption growth forecast of major regions and countries in 2023 Source: WTTC of CITIC Securities Research Department. According to china tourism academy's prediction, by 2020, the domestic tourism market in China will reach 6-7 billion person-times, and the domestic tourism income will be about 10 trillion yuan, which is about 65,438 compared with 20 12 years. The inbound tourism market is about 200 million people, and the inbound income is about 80 billion US dollars. Compared with 20 12, the compound annual growth rate is about 4% and 6%. The number of outbound tourists is about 250 million, and the consumption of outbound tourists is about10.50 billion US dollars. Compared with 2065,438+02, the compound annual growth rate is about 65,438+05% and 7.5% respectively. Domestic travel forecast inbound travel forecast overall market forecast data source: china tourism academy 1, travel agency 20 13 "Eleventh Golden Week", the implementation of the Tourism Law has caused a serious blow to travel agencies, directly affected the choice of residents' travel modes in a short time, and had a certain impact on the short-term income of travel agencies. However, in the long run, the implementation of the Tourism Law has a positive side for the standard operation and profitability improvement of travel agencies, especially for small and medium-sized travel agencies to upgrade their products and promote the overall service innovation ability of the industry. In addition, due to the increasing demand for domestic mass leisure tourism, free travel will become the new mainstream, and group travel will gradually face decline, which will face greater challenges for travel agencies mainly based on group travel, and the need for transformation and upgrading is urgent. How to improve their innovative ability is an important issue that travel agencies need to consider. 2. A series of events in the scenic spot 20 13 had a great impact on the scenic spot industry. In this situation, the industry of 20 14 scenic spot is expected to face integration and reshuffle. In addition, from the frequent introduction of scenic spot ticket supervision policies and measures in recent years, we can see that the government is thinking about weakening the ticket economy and accelerating the transformation of the entire tourism industry. It is predicted that in the future, the transition from the ticket economy centered on scenic spots to the compound economy centered on destinations will be the development direction of China's tourism industry. 3. Hotel industry is the most cyclical sub-industry in tourism, which is greatly influenced by the economic environment. In 20 14, with the economic stabilization and the decrease of "three public consumption", it is expected that high-end restaurants and star-rated hotels will continue to wander at a low level, while catering and budget hotels positioned for mass consumption are expected to maintain a good growth trend. 4. Online Travel With China's tourism industry gradually stepping into the stage of popularization and individualization, online travel industry has become one of the fastest growing industries in recent years. In addition to several well-developed online travel service providers, some traditional travel enterprises have also begun to establish online distribution platforms to transfer the original offline travel business to online. According to iResearch report, the transaction scale of online travel market in China reached 275 billion yuan in 20 14, up 25% year-on-year. 2009-20 16 China Online Travel Market Transaction Scale Data Source: iResearch In addition, some analysts believe that tourism networking will reach a new height in 20 14. Online travel distributors represented by Ctrip and E Long will gradually penetrate their business into all aspects of tourism, and the development of mobile Internet will gradually transform from OTA to MTA. 5. The improvement of transportation capacity of airports, railways and seaports and the improvement of connectivity between cities will effectively enhance the accessibility of tourist destinations, shorten the time of tourists on the way, greatly increase the long-distance and short-distance passenger flow in scenic spots, and play a powerful role in promoting the development of tourism. (1) The competition pattern in the aviation industry is intensifying (1) The capacity will continue to grow rapidly. From the perspective of capacity delivery, the centralized delivery period of a large number of aircraft orders signed by the three major airlines in 20 10/2/2014, of which 20 12- 14 is the peak period of growth. Do not consider retiring, 20654. Starting from 2007, the number of aircraft orders (frames) of the three major airlines every six months will increase the industry capacity in the next three years. Source: Haitong Securities Research Institute. Judging from the structure of aircraft introduction, the growth rate of wide-body aircraft in the industry will still be ahead of that of narrow-body aircraft next year. As the business demand of domestic routes is expected to remain relatively low, it is expected that wide-body aircraft will invest more in international routes. From this point of view, although the demand for international routes may increase at a higher speed, the speed of capacity input will be faster. Therefore, unless there is business, the prospect of tourism demand, especially international demand, is still expected to maintain rapid growth, which is different from the relatively low business demand, and the overall growth rate of tourist visitors is good. As far as domestic routes are concerned, due to the high passenger load factor and fare level in peak season, the performance elasticity in peak season is not great, so the improvement of profitability of domestic routes must rely on the performance improvement in off-season. As far as international routes are concerned, the profitability of international routes is highly dependent on the two cabins, which also depends on the recovery of business demand. Therefore, on the whole, the recovery of aviation business demand is a prerequisite for the industry to enter the boom cycle. ⑵ Basic Policy Planning+Opening of National High-speed Railway Network In the long run, the State Council issued the Outline of National Tourism and Leisure in February 2003. By implementing the regulations on paid annual leave for employees, improving infrastructure construction and public services, and improving the market supervision and management system, the goal of improving the level and quality of tourism and leisure consumption of urban and rural residents will be achieved. Before 20 15, the high-speed rail ushered in the peak period. At present, high-speed railways have been opened in the three eastern provinces-Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shaanxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangzhou and the eastern region, and high-speed railways in Lanzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Guiyang, Kunming and Nanning are under construction. After the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the traffic arteries of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, Northwest China, Yunnan-Guizhou and Central China will be opened. High-speed rail opened in key cities of China. The map formed after the completion of the layout of the high-speed rail network Source: High-speed rail network, China Investment Securities Research Institute (III) Development forecast of tourism enterprises in the capital market. 20 14 Many projects of listed companies will be delivered centrally. Although they may not be able to contribute their performance in the first year of their business, their valuation is expected to be the first to increase. The performance of the market incubation period will accelerate, further opening up the room for stock price increase. At the same time, the project delivered in 20 13 will usher in its first full operation year in 20 14, and it is expected to start contributing profits. Source: Announcement of listed companies. Based on the above review, China's tourism industry is entering a period of rapid growth, driven by economic growth and policy support. According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, the rebound of tourism in China on 20 14 is a high probability event, which will occur in the second quarter, from the perspective of the elimination of the impact of avian flu and earthquake, and the low base and the fact that the impact of "three public consumption" will not be further expanded. Show all