On the first day of the Dragon Boat Festival, train tickets for many lines were sold out in seconds, and air ticket prices were reduced by 20%. Will the Dragon Boat Festival continue the tourism boom

On the first day of the Dragon Boat Festival, train tickets for many lines were sold out in seconds, and air ticket prices were reduced by 20%. Will the Dragon Boat Festival continue the tourism boom during the May Day period?

As to whether the Dragon Boat Festival will continue the tourism boom during the May Day period, I think there are three aspects that can be discussed:

First, the Disney effect continues to appear, and the super popular travel phenomenon is actually a sign of economic malaise. The second is the overall sluggish investment and consumption, and we have to stabilize the ticket price to support the still strong tourism industry;

The third is the regulatory rectification and urging of the tourism industry With a certain effect, travel costs can be effectively controlled;

Disney effect

The Disney effect means that during economic depression, Disney’s business becomes even more prosperous.

Because the entertainment industry consumes residents’ time, all walks of life are busy increasing production and expanding during economic booms. On the contrary, during economic depressions, the shrinkage of industries leaves residents with more travel time (no work to do). Or get fired);

Secondly, the consumption of most entertainment projects is actually not high. Even seemingly luxurious projects like Disney, most people can actually afford them. Just like today's tourism industry, even ordinary working-class people still have the ability to travel.

Although the number of our travels increases every year, the growth during this year’s May Day holiday was extremely strong. This is not a phenomenal performance, and it proves that the economic malaise has further deepened. Judging from the ticket sales of this Dragon Boat Festival, this phenomenon is still deepening.

It can also be found from historical data that economic growth is almost inversely proportional to the growth rate of tourist arrivals. When the GDP growth rate is high, the travel growth rate will be low; but when the GDP growth rate is low, the travel growth rate will be higher.

The movie "Bicycle Thieves" fully reflects this phenomenon. The impoverished male protagonist's family usually lives frugally, but after losing his bicycle and losing his job opportunity, he released his emotions and took his son to spend money in a high-end restaurant.

Similar economic principles include the lipstick effect, which means that when the economy becomes more depressed, lipstick sales will increase.

The reason is that lipstick is a relatively cheap and necessary cosmetic, and in fact, everyone can afford it. When the economy declines, people's income decreases and their desire to buy big brands will decrease. At the same time, consumption downgrade will cause people to use their remaining consumption power on cheap products in retaliation, and the sales of lipstick and other items will increase.

The same principle also applies to the short hair effect and the short skirt effect. They mean that when the economy becomes more depressed, the length of girls' hair and skirts will become shorter accordingly.

The reason is that when an economic crisis occurs, people's incomes plummet. In order to reduce the cost of taking care of their hair, women will choose to cut their hair shorter; at the same time, in order to increase their income as much as possible, women will use their inherent advantages to dress more conventionally in order to obtain more convenience.

The tourism industry that stands out from the crowd

Our investment and consumption are still sluggish this year, and RMB deposits increased by nearly 10 trillion in the first quarter. It fully shows that the market has a strong awareness of risk resistance. Companies are unwilling to invest and residents are unwilling to consume. They are only willing to deposit to protect their principal.

In this case, our monetary policy continues to fail. Last year, the country lowered its loan prime rate (LPR) three times in an attempt to stimulate the recovery of the property market and real industry by lowering loan costs. But judging from the results, the property market is still sluggish, and the real estate industry is still shrinking. After a short-lived flash in February and March, real estate has been brought back to its original shape, which feels like a comeback.

The property market is in decline, new energy has not achieved economies of scale, chips and semiconductors are stuck, artificial intelligence started late, and the digital economy has not yet spread. Therefore, the recovery of the tourism industry is extremely valuable. It is a rare and dazzling industry in the economic recession cycle and must be protected.

Therefore, it is necessary to reduce residents’ travel costs through measures such as stabilizing fares to maintain the healthy growth of the industry. This Dragon Boat Festival is a critical period to test residents’ travel sentiment and the effect of policy support.

Supervision has achieved initial results

The tourism industry has long been plagued by phenomena such as high-priced machines, high-priced wine, and unreasonable breach of contract. In the long term, this will undoubtedly be a setback to the tourism industry. In the current situation where other industries have been unable to recover, the prosperity of tourism makes it necessary to focus on protection. Especially judging from the popularity of May Day travel, the number of illegal incidents may increase, so supervision must be strengthened.

The price reduction for Dragon Boat Festival tickets reflects the effectiveness of regulatory rectification and is also the local government's efforts to promote tourism. This move can protect the interests of travelers to a large extent and promote the healthy development of the tourism industry.

However, the effectiveness of supervision still depends on the subsequent situation of the hotel industry and catering industry. Will there be sky-high price rooms, widespread defaults, and sky-high price meals?

In short, Under the influence of the Disney effect, travel during the Dragon Boat Festival will continue to be popular; at the same time, because the Dragon Boat Festival is not as long as the May Day holiday, the total number of trips is not that many, and the congestion level is relatively better; in addition, due to increased supervision, Residents’ travel experience will increase accordingly.