When can ordinary people travel to the moon?

The moon doesn't seem to be a good travel destination. There are no beaches, no museums and even no oxygen. But on the other hand, these are precisely the advantages of the moon. For the only natural satellite on the earth, we have enough reasons to travel there. However, if you want to put the moon travel plan into practice, you will encounter many difficulties. On the other hand, you will also be told that even if moon tourism can be realized in some way, only the super-rich can afford it. Then, the question comes: when can we ordinary people travel to the moon? On Gizmodo's website, experts in related fields provided the answer to this question.

Wendy Whitman Cobb (Assistant Professor of Strategic and Security Studies, Advanced Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, US Air Force)

The first thing to understand is that predictions about future events in space have never come true, and these predictions are usually too optimistic! Such a problem was raised as early as the 1950s. Some people claim that humans will soon be able to visit the moon regularly, and even say for sure that this will be realized at the end of the 20th century. Unfortunately, going into space is very difficult and expensive.

Let's start with the good news: it is possible to travel to the moon. The technology and ability of human landing on the moon have been verified. This does not require any new inventions or radical new technologies, but money and determination. Although some developed countries have sufficient funds, they have lacked the determination to do so since the 1960s. On the other hand, private enterprises generally lack sufficient funds. However, the development of commercial aerospace industry is beginning to reverse this situation.

One of the most important factors in the cost of manned landing on the moon is launch. It costs a lot of money to launch any spaceship that can reach the moon. Fortunately, due to the development of reusable launch vehicles, the launch cost is decreasing. As people often point out, if you throw away the plane every time you fly, it will become very expensive to travel by plane. Recognizing this, companies such as Space Exploration Technology have been working hard to develop reusable launch vehicles so that they can fly again in a short time. The space shuttle can only be partially reused, and it takes quite a long time to prepare for the next flight between flights. In contrast, Space Exploration Technologies' Falcon 9 rocket shows that most launchers can be reused and refurbished quickly, sometimes in as little as 40 days. This greatly reduces the cost of getting into orbit, making things like traveling to the moon more likely to become the business of private companies.

Let's start with the bad news: even if the launch cost is reduced, landing on the moon is still very expensive and dangerous. In the foreseeable future, only state-backed astronauts or wealthy tourists can go to the moon, which may still cost millions of dollars. Theoretically, this kind of travel can not only prove the safety and reliability of going back and forth to the lunar surface, but also give enterprises and countries more sufficient reasons to develop lunar bases. It is likely that only after these bases are built and there are regular shuttle ships between the earth and the moon will ordinary people be able to travel to the moon without borrowing a huge sum of money.

So when might this be? If it continues to develop at the current rate, it may be the end of 2 1 century at the earliest. However, there are many speculations about this "if". Although some countries are currently under pressure to launch lunar exploration programs, there is no guarantee that such programs will continue. Or, some countries and companies may find no reason to stay on the moon, especially if they can go to Mars. Of course, if valuable resources (such as helium 3) are found on the moon, or there are other convincing reasons to maintain lunar exploration, the timeline of lunar travel may be accelerated. This progress depends to a large extent on public opinion and/or business needs, both of which have been harsh in history.

In a word, although I will gladly accept the opportunity to travel to the moon for the first time, I don't think I will go to the moon in my lifetime. It may be my niece and nephew, but it is more likely to be their descendants, if all goes well.

Scott Ma Ghersin [Professor of Drama and Performance Studies at the University of Washington, author of Performance Flying: From Barn Storm to Space Tourism].

I don't hold out much hope. Indeed, since the late 1960s, we have had the basic technology to send ordinary people to the moon and return to the earth, but the excitement of the public and the will of taxpayers are not enough to maintain this dream, let alone the future dream of establishing a moon base and going back and forth to the moon regularly.

However, one thing may calm people down. Recent studies have found that long-term exposure to radiation and low gravity environment is far more harmful to human body than we thought. In space flight, radiation and low gravity are always lasting elements. After astronaut scott kelly lived in space for one year, scientists conducted a series of studies on him, showing that once our bodies leave the earth's atmosphere and the protection of gravity, they will basically begin to decline. Cognitive impairment, musculoskeletal degeneration and heart atrophy are all negative psychological and physiological effects brought by space life. I think it is worthwhile for many people to take these risks, but what about the crew and other astronauts who have to endure longer exposure time? It is quite attractive for ordinary people to walk on the surface of the moon one day, but I am quite sure that this last point will be the biggest obstacle, and we must overcome this obstacle to achieve our ultimate goal. I wonder if it will come true in our lifetime.

Jim Bell)[ Professor of Earth and Space Exploration at the University of Arizona, author of the ultimate planetary travel guide, and an important participant in NASA's solar system exploration mission].

In my book The Ultimate Guide to Interstellar Travel, I imagine that in the future 200 years later, ordinary people's interstellar travel in the solar system will be as common as our travel on the earth today. I assert that by then, the progress of advanced technology and other technologies will greatly shorten the travel time, and the infrastructure and service construction of alien destinations will support space tourism to become a feasible business model.

So, if we die in 200 years, what should we do? If the current plans of national space agencies are successful, well-trained astronauts will return to the moon for short-term visits sometime in the next decade. This speculation is reasonable. If commercial and government-supported space systems continue to develop according to the current trend, technologies such as manned interstellar launcher, artificial satellite, Mars probe and rover will be proved on the moon in the 1920s and 1930s, and on Mars in the 1930s and 40s. Although there is no moon base or colonial plan under development at present, it is predicted that by the second half of 2 1 century, there will be low-cost and more reliable means of deep space exploration, which will significantly promote the development of deep space economy, and the earliest formal space tourism opportunities may also appear.

Therefore, we should eat well and drink well, strengthen exercise and aim at longevity. Maybe when you retire, spending weekends on the moon will become a common thing.

Alex Roland (Honorary Professor of History at Duke University, majoring in military history and science and technology history)

We can safely say that this will not happen in the next 50 years. Outside this time range, there are too many unknown possibilities. During this period, there is no foreseeable technology to overcome all kinds of obstacles faced by human beings in conventional space flight, including physics, politics, economy and human physiology. From two very real problems, we can clearly see the challenges faced by tourists on the moon.

First of all, today's space technology is more inclined to use machines than people. Doing anything meaningful in space-including all kinds of exploration missions-will cost 10 times as much if people are sent into space. In the race to the moon in the 1960s, this was indeed the case, and it is even worse today. Due to the revolution of microelectronics and artificial intelligence in the past half century, automated and remotely controlled spacecraft can do anything that humans can do in space, and they can do better with lower risk and lower cost. No matter what the task is, as long as there is someone on the spaceship, its nature will immediately change into a life support and rescue mission, which requires bringing people back alive. On the aging international space station, astronauts are mainly the objects of human scientific research to study the harmful effects of weightlessness, isolation and radiation.

The second obstacle to establishing a colony on the moon is investment. What kind of human collective-country, company or community-will invest tens or hundreds of billions of dollars to send people to the moon? What is their expected return on investment? Nothing on the moon can compensate for the cost of sending a man to the moon. Using the moon as a transit station to Mars does not answer the question of return on investment, but also increases the risk. Under the current technical conditions, there is no temptation to get rich, just like colonizing celestial bodies on the earth. More suitable places for investment are waving to us, such as the polar regions of the earth where only a few people live, or the seabed where no one lives yet. These two places are relatively easy to reach and cheaper, so it is easier and safer to settle down and explore and develop more valuable things. Multimillionaires or billionaires may pay for the reputation of early moon tourists, but in the foreseeable future, no "ordinary people" have enough disposable wealth to bear even a small part of the cost of landing on the moon.

Instead of asking when ordinary people will go to the moon, ask whether there will be people on the moon in the next 50 years. Who will go? Why are you going? These questions may be more meaningful.

Mark Sondahl (Professor of Law and Director of Global Space Center, Cleveland State University)

Judging from the historical evolution of astronauts, it will be a matter of time. Considering the powerful impetus of the country and entrepreneurs to promote the space travel revolution, I predict that in the next 10 year, the first tourists will set foot on the moon.

In the early days of the space age, only military test pilots with "appropriate qualities" could become astronauts. Scientists and other "payload experts" finally joined the team of astronauts, because astronauts' duties are not just driving. 1986, American teacher Christa mcauliffe joined the space shuttle crew, bringing the dream of space travel to ordinary citizens. In 200 1 year, Russian began to transport tourists to the International Space Station, and dennis tito stayed in orbit for 8 days.

Once the "Starship" has completed many manned and unmanned missions to the moon under the Al-themis plan and proved its safety, moon tourists will follow. Maybe as early as 2027. How ordinary these tourists are depends on the ticket price, but the ticket price will come down sooner or later. By 20031year, I predict that people will queue up to travel to the moon-"starship" is designed to meet this demand, and one flight can transport 100 people. However, as early as 2004, when the Spaceship 1 designed by scale complex won the Ansari X Prize, many people thought that the first group of suborbital tourists would fly into space soon (the company later cooperated with Virgin Galactic to design Spaceship 3). But until now, we are still waiting for the first flight of passengers on 202 1.

Peter Ward (Professor of Biology and Adjunct Professor of Astronomy, University of Washington)

I don't think we will ever land on the moon. At least, I won't.

Nowadays, the birth rate is declining everywhere. Coupled with good drugs, human society is aging, which means that more and more GDP share will have to be used to deal with an old guy like me. In the future, every 10 year, the consumable money produced by human beings on the earth will continue to decrease. The plan to invest in designing ordinary rockets for landing on the moon will become increasingly untenable-unless we can find a way to profit from space, the whole space plan will come to nothing. The only place to do this is the asteroid belt, and on the moon, nothing can be used to make money.

Also, what are ordinary people? They can't afford this version of interstellar space flight, because flying in low space 10 minutes costs about $200,000. If we can somehow control the price of a trip to the moon at $5 million, how many people can pay that much?

Never say never, but I think at least in this century, ordinary people can't travel to the moon.

Robert Grics (space tourism expert, part-time assistant professor at Embraer University)

My short answer is: between 10 and 100 in the future.

In my textbook Space Tourism, I divide the present and future space tourism activities into 10 stages with different complexity. The first stage is "natural scenic spots and others", and the last stage is "beyond flight". I define the flight around the moon as the eighth stage: "Compared with the simple suborbital or orbital flight, the complexity of the flight around the moon has increased significantly ... In the context of space tourism, it is unlikely to travel to the moon in the short term unless tourists are only in the lunar orbit and have not landed. 1968, apollo 8 astronauts orbited the moon. What they see from the spaceship is the same as what tourists may see ... Once large-scale space tourism in Earth orbit becomes a daily affair, wealthy tourists will want to travel to the moon and even land on the moon. "

With this in mind, assuming there is a safe lunar rocket, I will imagine an optimistic scenario: a few "ordinary people" will win a ticket to travel to the moon in the near future. But the pessimistic situation may be that even in the long run, "ordinary people" still can't visit the moon because of unresolved security, environmental and financial problems. The reality may be somewhere in between, and the future will tell us the answer.

Garrett Reisman (American engineer, former NASA astronaut)

Ordinary people's trip to the moon may come faster than you think. Both NASA and other countries' space programs plan to send people representing their respective governments to the moon in the near future, but some ordinary people have set their sights on the moon. As a matter of fact, an ordinary man named Yusuke Maezawa has reached an agreement with Space Exploration Technology Company to sail around the moon. Other opportunities will follow. In the new business model, NASA will sign transportation service contracts with private companies such as Spacex. These private companies own and operate lunar landing vehicles, which allows them to use them for non-NASA customers. It is true that these customers are not ordinary people in the general sense, but very rich people. But as time goes on, the cost will decrease and the usability will increase. So, when can non-billionaires buy tickets to the moon? Nobody knows the exact answer. Before the deregulation in 1978, it took about 60 years for ordinary people to bear the cost of air travel. In space, I hope we can do better in the next 50 years and make it affordable.

Julie Brisser (Assistant Scientist, Florida Space Research Institute)

To some extent, it depends on your definition of ordinary people: non-astronauts, such as very rich space tourists, or ordinary people like you and me.

Space tourists are obviously rich. They may visit the moon earlier than ordinary people, just as they have visited the International Space Station. Private companies like Blue Origin are likely to provide this service, similar to the suborbital flight service they now provide.

Anyway, I think the order is this: first, astronauts, then technicians/workers who build infrastructure, then pioneers who are willing to settle on the moon, and then more people.

The key to the problem is to improve the conventional economic utilization of the space between the earth and the moon. If living on the moon can bring economic benefits, ordinary people's trip to the moon may eventually be just a side effect. Just like when trains are used as means of transportation, cities will naturally develop along railways. (Ren Tian)