How to deal with the fault line risk of China economy

Since 20 15, China's economic operation has encountered many unexpected shocks and challenges, and the downward pressure on the economy has continued to increase. Facing the complicated situation, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council adhered to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, and implemented a series of policy combinations to stabilize growth, adjust structure, promote reform, benefit people's livelihood and prevent risks, so as to keep the national economy running in a reasonable range, make new progress in structural adjustment and continuously improve people's livelihood. It is estimated that GDP will increase by 6.9% and CPI will increase by10.5% in 20 15 years. Looking forward to the economic growth in 20 16, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic development have not changed. However, due to the superposition of structural and cyclical factors, the economic operation will still face greater downward pressure next year, and it needs to take active and powerful macro policies and accelerate reforms to deal with it, and it can still operate within a reasonable range. ● Overall characteristics of the annual economic operation The overall characteristics of the economic operation in 20 15 years are stability, slow progress, stability and worry, intensified differentiation in various fields, and coexistence of favorable and unfavorable factors in the process of power conversion. The industrial structure continues to be optimized, and structural recession and structural prosperity coexist. In the first three quarters, the tertiary industry accounted for 5 1.4% of GDP, 2.3 percentage points higher than the same period of last year and 0.8 percentage points higher than the secondary industry. The adjustment of industrial internal structure has been accelerated, new industries, new formats and new products have grown rapidly, and the industrial structure has accelerated to the middle and high-end level. However, the prosperity of the industry varies greatly. First, some industries with overcapacity are very difficult. Resources and heavy chemical industries are generally in trouble, the growth rate has dropped sharply, and the output of coal, steel, cement and other products has dropped sharply. The overall inventory pressure of the industry is relatively high, and it is still in the stage of bottoming out. It will take time to get out of the predicament completely. Second, the rapid development of high-tech industries. Computer communication, new energy, new materials, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other industries have obvious development advantages, and the growth rate is much faster than that of traditional manufacturing. Third, the development momentum of emerging service industries is strong. The new service format and new model have continued the high growth trend in the past two years, and the performance of industries such as e-commerce and logistics express delivery is particularly eye-catching. The three major demands tend to develop in a balanced way, and the internal differentiation is gradually prominent. Since 20 15, consumption growth has remained stable, investment growth has continued to slow down, export growth has shifted gears, and the three major demands have tended to develop in a balanced way. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 58.4%, which was higher than investment 15 percentage points, and consumption became the main engine of economic growth. From the internal perspective of the three major demands, the differentiation is gradually prominent, and depression and prosperity coexist. In terms of investment, real estate investment continued to fall, monthly investment was negative, infrastructure investment maintained a rapid growth rate, and manufacturing investment slowly stabilized. In terms of consumption, consumption in online retail, communication goods, tourism and other fields increased rapidly, while consumption of oil and products dropped sharply. In terms of exports, general trade exports maintained a positive growth, processing trade exports fell sharply, and the export advantages of the traditional seven categories of labor-intensive products dropped significantly. The regional economic growth gap is significant, and there is a multi-speed growth pattern. In some areas with good industrial foundation, diversified structure, rapid adjustment and high degree of openness, the economy still maintains a good momentum of development; However, in some areas with backward industrial structure and concentrated overcapacity industries, the economic decline is relatively fast. Chongqing and Guizhou went up against the market, achieving ultra-high-speed growth of 10% and above, leading the country; Most provinces are relatively stable, maintaining a high-speed growth range of 7%-9%; Liaoning, Shanxi and other resource-based and heavy chemical industry provinces have great downward pressure and a large deceleration, with a growth rate of less than 3%. Even some cities in the province have experienced negative growth, and the situation is extremely pessimistic. Enterprise prosperity differentiation, the same industry ice and fire two days. On the one hand, some large enterprises and listed companies seize the market and policy opportunities, give play to the advantages of scale and brand, and develop relatively well. On the other hand, a large number of traditional enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises still generally face difficulties in survival and transformation. People's livelihood continued to improve, and income and employment indicators performed well. In the first three quarters, the national urban employment increased by10.66 million, and the annual target was fulfilled ahead of schedule. The urban survey unemployment rate is stable at 5. 1%-5.2%. Residents' income has achieved the requirements of "two highs". In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 16367 yuan, a year-on-year real increase of 7.7%, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period. The per capita disposable income of rural residents increased by 8. 1%, which was higher than that of urban residents 1.3 percentage points. The price level is generally stable, and the structural deflationary pressure is increasing. Due to the lack of new inflation factors, seasonal and climatic factors, the monthly increase of consumer prices in the whole year is less than 2%, and in some months it is less than 1%, and the overall price level is stable. However, due to the overall weak domestic demand, international commodity prices have continued to fall, the prices of raw materials and fuels in the production sector have continued to fall, and the producer price index PPI has been negatively growing for 45 consecutive months, with a large decline, and the risk of structural deflation in the industrial sector has become more prominent. A major problem in economic operation is the lack of stamina for investment growth. During the period of1-1,the planned total investment of newly started projects only increased by 4.7% year-on-year, which was 8.8 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. In particular, the planned total investment growth rate of newly started projects with a total investment exceeding 100 million yuan is lower than that of the same period of last year, and the problem of insufficient newly started projects is more prominent. It is mainly affected by many factors such as the clean-up of financing platform, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of economic growth rate. Some projects, especially large projects, have limited sources of funds, and some measures to stabilize growth are difficult to implement. At the same time, although the country has vigorously promoted decentralization, the reform measures have not yet been fully put in place, and the awareness of active service is poor. Another phenomenon is that investment projects need to be signed and approved by various departments in series. Many examination and approval links and low administrative efficiency also affect the implementation of steady growth measures. Second, it is difficult to clear the market. As of June 165438+ 10, the ex-factory price of industrial products has been negative for 45 consecutive months, exceeding the record of negative growth during the Asian financial crisis 1997. With the downward trend of economic growth, the utilization rate of production capacity has further declined, making it more difficult to alleviate the situation of overcapacity, and surplus industries have expansion potential. Overcapacity leads to the continuous deterioration of enterprise benefits. During the period of 1- 10, the national large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises suffered a cumulative loss of 38.638 billion yuan, including a loss of 72 billion yuan in their main business.1kloc-0/48 large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises suffered losses, and the loss area expanded to 47.5%. In the month of 65438+ 10, the social stocks of five kinds of steel products in 22 cities nationwide increased month on month. Among them, the total inventory of steel market was 8308 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 269,300 tons or 3.35% over the previous month. At present, it is urgent to restore the balance between supply and demand through market clearing. However, under the influence of subjective and objective factors such as the technical and economic characteristics of heavy assets in overcapacity industries and the protection of local governments, it is still difficult to resolve overcapacity and eliminate "zombie enterprises". A large number of resources are solidified in industries with overcapacity, which inhibits the development of strategic emerging industries and modern service industries. Third, the employment pressure has gradually become prominent. The rapid growth of the tertiary industry this year has promoted the stability of employment. However, due to the fluctuation of capital market, the total demand is sluggish, and the prosperity of non-manufacturing industries is also declining. The PMI index of non-manufacturing industry in June was 5438+ 10, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than that in July, and the ability of tertiary industry to absorb employment was weakened. And with the further increase of the downward pressure on the economy, the employment situation that some traditional industries and overcapacity industries are struggling to maintain at present may be broken, some hidden unemployment may become obvious, and the employment pressure will be further highlighted, which may have an impact on the employment stability next year. At the same time, although online retail, express delivery and other emerging formats have created some new jobs, we should also pay attention to the impact and significant substitution effect of online stores on physical stores. The survey shows that the physical stores of books, clothing, home appliances and other products are the hardest hit areas, and some physical stores are difficult to operate or even close down. Some traditional department stores have also been hit hard, and the business prosperity has been declining, which has a great impact on the employment of related groups. Fourth, financial risks have increased. Problems in the real economy, such as serious overcapacity, deterioration of enterprise benefits, and cleaning up of local government financing platforms, began to spread to the financial sector. Since 20 12, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks has been increasing quarterly, and it has been increasing for 16 consecutive quarters. The NPL ratio increased from 0.94% in the first quarter of 20 12 to 1.50% in the second quarter of 20 15, and further increased to 65438 in the third quarter. Financing difficulties and high financing costs have also led to the rise of illegal fund-raising in some areas. These problems are intertwined and mutually transmitted, which increases the downward pressure on the economy and also leads to increased financial risks. ● Analysis of economic growth trend in 2065438+06. The growth rate of investment in 20 16 years may drop to around 9%. The growth rate of manufacturing investment may decrease by 1.5 percentage points, which will lower the investment growth rate by 0.5 percentage points. First, the decline in business prosperity affects investment enthusiasm. It is found that 60% of the growth rate of manufacturing investment can be explained by the growth rate of corporate profits in the previous year. Since 20 15, the total profit of industrial enterprises has been continuously negative growth, which is about 5 percentage points lower than the previous year. The deterioration of profits of industrial enterprises inhibits enterprises from expanding investment. And in the first half of the year, benefiting from the continuous activity of the stock market, the income of non-main business of enterprises increased rapidly. If the influence is eliminated, the business situation of the enterprise is even worse than the profit data shows. Second, overcapacity is still outstanding, and the motivation for new investment is insufficient. From the industry statistics this year, the problem of overcapacity is still outstanding, and with the economic downturn, the capacity utilization rate has further declined, and overcapacity industries are likely to expand. Third, the scale of high-tech manufacturing industry is still small, and it is difficult to provide sufficient investment support. The year-on-year growth of national high-tech manufacturing investment is nearly 4 percentage points higher than that of all manufacturing investment, but its proportion is less than 10%, which has a weak pulling effect on manufacturing investment growth. Real estate investment may drop to zero growth. First, the current capital source structure is difficult to support the growth of real estate investment. Although the funds in place of real estate development enterprises increased by1-1.3% year-on-year in June, the growth rate has been increasing for several months. However, from the source of funds, domestic loans, foreign capital and self-raised funds have all experienced negative growth for several months in a row, and only deposits, prepayments and personal mortgage loans have increased. Second, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises grew negatively year-on-year. From June 5438+0 to June 5438+0 1, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 33. 1% year-on-year. Third, the current prosperity of the real estate market has not fully recovered. At present, the prosperity of the real estate market is structural, not holistic. From a regional perspective, first-and second-tier cities are booming, while third-and fourth-tier cities are sluggish. From the perspective of the purchase structure, the prosperity of improved housing is relatively high, while the prosperity of just-needed housing and high-end housing is relatively low. Since June 65438+ 10, the growth rate of real estate sales has declined. The growth of infrastructure investment may drop by 2 percentage points. First, the source of funds is limited. Affected by the economic downturn, the growth rate of fiscal revenue has dropped sharply. If the prosperity of the real estate market drops again next year, the sources of funds for local governments will be greatly restricted. Second, some reform measures may curb the expansion of local government investment in the short term. The new budget law, the restriction of local investment competition and the reform of local judicial and disciplinary committees have strengthened the checks and balances on the economic behavior of local governments, which may inhibit the expansion of local investment and financing in the short term. Consumption may enter single-digit growth. First, the income growth of urban and rural residents continued to slow down. In the first three quarters, residents' income actually increased by 7.7%, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the economic growth rate. But compared with the previous year, it continued to slow down. Second, consumer confidence may weaken due to obvious unemployment and other factors. Third, some hot consumption may slow down. First of all, the effect of automobile consumption incentive policy is weakened. Secondly, due to the increase of risk aversion caused by the fluctuation of gold price and stock market this year, the consumption of gold, silver and jewelry for the purpose of maintaining and increasing value increased significantly in the third quarter, with an average growth rate of 13%, but it was not sustainable. Exports may be slightly higher than this year. First, the external environment is still complicated. The report of the International Monetary Fund 5438+ 10 in June predicted that the recovery of developed economies would weaken in 20 16, but the growth rate of emerging market countries would pick up in 20 16. Second, an optimized policy environment and a low base may increase export growth, while imports may increase at a low speed. The negative growth of imports this year is mainly caused by the decline in commodity prices, and the decline in imports is not significant. It is expected that the import volume will be reduced in a narrow range next year, the price impact will be reduced, and the import will grow at a low speed. On the whole, the economy will still face greater downward pressure next year, and the economic growth rate may fall further. 20 16 macro policy choice 20 16 the focus of macro policy is still to grasp the balance of steady growth, structural adjustment and risk prevention, base on the present, focus on the long-term, and make efforts from both ends of supply and demand. A proactive fiscal policy is more powerful. First, it is suggested to further expand the deficit scale and improve deficit ratio. The new deficit is mainly used for major national projects, cross-regional and inter-basin investment projects and key projects with strong externalities. Second, it is suggested to increase the issuance scale of central government bonds, appropriately increase the issuance quota of local government bonds, continue to promote bond replacement in a timely manner, reduce the debt repayment pressure of local governments, make room for local governments' expenditures in other fields, ensure the reasonable investment of local public services and the stable supply of public infrastructure construction, and stimulate economic growth. The third is to further increase the efforts to revitalize existing funds and coordinate expenditures in key areas such as transportation, water conservancy and people's livelihood. Fourth, appropriately increase transfer payments to difficult areas such as Northeast China, and cooperate with other relevant policies to enhance their independent growth momentum. A prudent monetary policy is more moderate. First, it is suggested to continue to reduce the deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate, maintain sufficient liquidity in the case of intensified capital outflow, and guide the market interest rate down. Under the overall situation of keeping the overall trend of the exchange rate basically stable, according to market conditions, we will continue to release the pressure of RMB depreciation and further reduce the pressure on the export sector. Second, stabilize the stock market, develop a multi-level capital market, and further improve the financing function of the capital market. Wide entry and strict exit to prevent the risk of large-scale capital outflow. Third, give full play to the role of directional regulation, further expand the scale of capital utilization of development finance and policy financial institutions, and support the construction of key areas. Accelerate structural reform. Continue to promote decentralization, speed up the resolution of excess capacity and clean up zombie enterprises, take effective measures to effectively reduce the costs of various enterprises, guide the "double innovation" activities to develop in depth, and deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises. Fully mobilize local enthusiasm. Establish a positive incentive mechanism for local governments in reform and development, and overcome the tendency of inaction. Actively explore the new mechanism of local government competition under the new situation, not only to ensure fairness and justice, but also to fully mobilize local enthusiasm.