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China Tourism News: Analysis of Tourism Development in the First Half of 2008

2008 is a happy year for China, but it is also accompanied by unfortunate factors, both of which affect the development of tourism in China. With the hosting of the Beijing Olympic Games, China will convey to the world information that is beneficial to the development of tourism, such as "Safe China", "Friendly China" and "Civilized China", and will greatly spread the culture and brands of China countries, thus promoting the development of tourism. However, the implementation of the Regulations on Paid Annual Leave for Employees and the first cancellation of the May Day Golden Week have led to the rectification of the tourism market. The occurrence of these major events has affected the development trend of tourism to varying degrees, making the development of China's tourism continue to advance in twists and turns. Lv Wei Chuangjing Planning & Design Institute published the development analysis and memorabilia of the tourism industry in the first half of 2008 in China Tourism News. Let's share them together and record China during the trip in words.

First, the overall analysis of China's tourism development in the first half of the year

Lv Wei Chuangjing believes that many disasters occurred in China in the first half of the year, which also had a certain impact on the development of tourism in China, as follows:

1. 1 Impact of inbound tourism

In the first half of this year, the number of inbound tourists in China was 649 1.37 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%. Among them, the number of foreigners coming to China reached 12640527 million, up by 4.34% year-on-year. * * * The national tourism foreign exchange income was US$ 20.232 billion, up 2. 12% year-on-year.

Therefore, the disaster has little impact on China's inbound tourism, and the negative impact can hardly hide the good momentum of the rapid growth of China's inbound tourism, but the growth rate has slowed down compared with last year.

1.2 domestic tourism impact

Affected by the disaster, the rapid growth of domestic tourism in China has been hit hard. According to the statistics of some provinces in the first quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic tourism in southern provinces and cities seriously affected by the snowstorm has declined to varying degrees, while the unaffected northern provinces and cities have maintained rapid growth.

1.3 Impact of outbound tourism

Disaster events not only affect inbound tourism and domestic tourism, but also promote the development of outbound tourism. From June 5438 to April 2008, affected by the bad weather in February, the number of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong decreased year-on-year, but it still maintained a rapid growth trend in other months. There has been a new breakthrough in tourism in Taiwan Province Province, and the authorities in Taiwan Province Province have opened mainland citizens to travel to Taiwan. With the launch of the first delegation of mainland tourists to Taiwan on July 4th, Lv Wei Chuangjing predicted that the domestic tour in Taiwan Province Province would become another bright spot in the outbound tourism market in the third quarter. The first group of China citizens traveling to the United States set off from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong on June 17, with a total of 250 tourists, which marked the official start of China citizens' group travel to the United States.

Generally speaking, the data of 2008 1 and the second quarter show that the market structure of outbound tourism remains stable. In the third quarter, with the coming of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the short-distance outbound tourism market with Hong Kong and Macao as its destination will continue to heat up. Travel to Taiwan Province and the United States will be another hot spot in September, 65438+ 10.

Second, the impact of China's economic development on tourism

Lv Wei Chuangjing believes that tourism is highly interrelated, so there are many factors that affect the development of tourism. Tourism is also a high-consumption industry, and domestic economic development has a great influence on tourism, mainly in the following aspects:

2. 1 Impact of rising prices on tourism

2.2. 1 Reasons for price increase

Since May 2007, the overall price level in China has risen sharply. Since August, the year-on-year increase in consumer prices has exceeded 6% for five consecutive months. From June 5438 to February 2007, the consumer price rose by 6.5% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter. There are many reasons for the price increase:

1. The income of urban and rural residents has increased rapidly.

In the first half of this year, the average wage of urban workers and farmers' income increased to varying degrees. The improvement of the labor wage level and the expansion of the coverage of the social security system not only directly raise the costs of enterprises and products, but also improve the consumption power of urban and rural residents, and promote the price increase from two aspects.

2. The price of food, especially pork, has risen a lot.

The rise in pork prices is the main driver of the national price increase. The rise of pig's head price has pushed up the prices of related non-staple food industries, such as beef, mutton and eggs, and further affected the overall level of consumer prices.

3. Social demand pull

China's economy continues to grow at a high speed, with the GDP growth rate exceeding 10% for five consecutive years. The contradiction between excessive growth of fixed assets investment, excessive credit supply and excessive foreign trade surplus is more prominent, and excessive funds have pushed up prices.

4. International market price impact

China's oil, iron ore, soybean, edible vegetable oil and other important raw materials are highly dependent on foreign countries, and the sharp rise in international market prices has a great impact on China. In the past four years, the price of crude oil in the international market has nearly tripled, and the prices of these basic products have risen, which has increased the production costs of domestic enterprises and pushed up the prices of related products.

5. Enterprise cost drive

The cost of some resource products is not only affected by the sharp rise in international market prices, but also the increase in environmental protection cost, capital cost and wage level of enterprises, which has pushed up the cost, thus pushing up the prices of goods and services.

6. The reform of resource prices and service prices has pushed up the prices of related products.

The state implements tax reform and encourages the rational development and utilization of resources. The resource price has obvious transmission effect on the service price, and about half of the increase in service price comes from the transmission of resource price. Therefore, the upward adjustment of resource prices will inevitably lead to the overall increase of service prices, thus releasing the potential upward pressure on service prices such as public transportation.

2.2.2 Impact of price increase on tourism

The impact of rising prices on tourism is multifaceted, as shown in:

1. Tickets for scenic spots are rising.

In recent years, the ticket prices of domestic scenic spots have been rising, and all famous scenic spots are raising prices, and some even increase by more than 100%. The high ticket prices are closely related to the development of China's national economy and rising prices.

2. Transportation expenditure has generally increased.

Due to the rising price, the "tour" among the six elements of tourism has also been affected to some extent, and the rising fuel cost has increased tourists' spending on transportation to some extent.

3. Shopping consumption has increased.

Rising prices directly lead to the increase of tourists' shopping expenses, and the increase of raw materials and handicrafts of various tourist souvenirs, which makes the prices of tourist commodities generally rise.

4. Other effects

The price increase has also affected other related factors of tourism, such as food, shelter and entertainment. Rising prices lead to rising hotel accommodation and catering prices, which indirectly affects the development of tourism.

2.2 the impact of RMB appreciation on tourism

The appreciation of RMB has many influences on China's tourism, mainly outbound tourism and inbound tourism, but has little influence on domestic tourism.

2.2. 1 RMB appreciation hot outbound tour

1. Increase outbound passenger flow

Exchange rate appreciation will have a significant impact on outbound tourism through income effect. The renminbi is becoming more and more valuable, and the number of outbound tourists will continue to increase. In recent years, the tendency of residents to travel abroad has been increasing, and the scale of outbound travel has been expanding, in which the appreciation of RMB has played an extremely important role. The appreciation of RMB, on the one hand, increases the number of unplanned outbound tourists, on the other hand, makes some people who originally planned to travel in China turn to travel abroad, making outbound tourism increasingly popular.

2. A large number of idle capital outflows

The increase of outbound tourists directly leads to the increase of tourism consumption, which leads to a large number of idle funds in China. The growth of outbound tourism has aggravated the imbalance of tourism balance of payments.

3. Have an impact on domestic tourism.

The increase of outbound tourists may have an impact on the reception volume of domestic hotels and scenic spots, but the impact is relatively small. At the same time, because some domestic tourists turn to international tourism, it will also have an impact on the domestic tourism market, but the impact is not great.

2.2.2 RMB appreciation inhibits inbound tourism

1. Restrain the growth of inbound passenger flow.

With the appreciation of RMB, some tourists planning to go to China will change their travel plans and choose other places, which will affect the inbound passenger flow. However, because the prices of China's tourism products and services are very cheap all over the world, even if the RMB appreciates, the number of inbound tourists will not decrease significantly for China, which is already very cheap. At the same time, the Olympic Games will greatly enhance China's international reputation and attract more foreign tourists. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB has little long-term impact on China's inbound tourism, but it will inhibit the growth of inbound tourism to some extent.

2. Reduce the operating profit of travel agencies

The appreciation of RMB directly reduces the operating profit of international travel agencies in receiving overseas tourists, and poses a severe challenge to the competitiveness of international travel agencies and the employment of employees in the short term. According to the survey, the tour fee for international travel agencies to receive overseas tourists has dropped from the original average110/20 to the current 80-90 dollars; The average per capita comprehensive consumption has dropped from 250-300 dollars to 200-250 dollars now; Operating profit has dropped from the original per capita 9- 10 to the present 5-6 dollars.

3. Reduce the foreign exchange income of scenic spots

Affected by the appreciation of RMB, the foreign currency carried by foreign tourists is less converted into RMB in China than before, which directly brings foreign tourists exchange losses after exchange rate adjustment. In order to avoid the adverse effects of rising prices and exchange rate changes, foreign tourists will try their best to reduce leisure and shopping consumption in scenic spots, which will reduce the foreign exchange income of tourism in scenic spots and even the whole country.

2.3 The impact of the downturn in the real estate market on tourism

The downturn of the real estate market seems to have no impact on the tourism industry, but it is not difficult to find that the downturn of the real estate market has a positive role in promoting the development of China's tourism industry. Due to the high real estate prices and the continuous downturn, many buyers stopped buying houses and held a wait-and-see attitude towards housing prices, which made some people have extra cash in their hands and provided the necessary conditions for tourism consumption. Because most buyers are young people, they know how to enjoy life better. Therefore, when they have cash in hand but have no plans to buy a house, some people will transfer the cash to travel abroad or at home, which to some extent activates and promotes the development of China's tourism market.

Third, the impact of major events on China tourism.

3. 1 The impact of the Olympic Games on tourism

Lv Wei Chuangjing thinks that when it comes to major events in 2008, we can't help mentioning the Olympic Games. Although the first half of the year has not yet opened, the seven-year Olympic Games have had a far-reaching and lasting impact on the development and trend of tourism.

3.2 inbound tourism slowed down and the Olympic city rose.

The influence of the Olympic Games can be divided into three stages: before, during and after the Olympic Games. Comparatively speaking, the impact on China's tourism before the Olympic Games is not the most prominent. It is not as high as the peak of inbound tourism of athletes, media workers, spectators and related people from all over the world during the Olympic Games, nor as fast as the rapid development of tourism brought about by the return of hotel prices and the relaxation of entry policies after the Olympic Games. However, the impact on tourism before the Olympic Games is lasting and far-reaching.

The start of the pre-Olympic period can be traced back to July, 20001year. China won the bid for the Olympic Games and officially entered the Olympic Games on July 20th, 2008. The seven-year preparation time for the Olympic Games is a stage for China to gradually show itself to the world. The preparations for the Olympic Games have a subtle influence on all aspects of China's tourism. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of the Olympic Games in the first half of 2008 on the development of domestic tourism.

In the first half of 2008, with the warming up of the China Olympic Games, the inbound tourism in China dropped. As the German weekly Der Spiegel analyzed, "People in sports may be very excited to go to China to participate in the Olympic Games this year, but for many people, China has lost its charm because of the Olympic Games. People who are interested in China culture would rather wait until after the Olympic Games to travel to China. " German travel agencies also said that China's route tour shrank sharply in the first half of the year.

In terms of per capita consumption, there is no comprehensive data analysis so far, but from most reports, many provinces and cities report that the per capita consumption of tourism this year has increased compared with last year.

3.3 Comparative Analysis of Three Small Holidays and May Day Golden Week

According to experts' analysis, the total number of tourists who experienced three small holidays in the first half of 2008 was basically the same as that in the May Day Golden Week in 2007. As far as the overall travel situation is concerned, the number of people traveling on May Day is the largest among the three small holidays, and the overall travel situation of Dragon Boat Festival and Tomb-Sweeping Day is similar, accounting for more than 70% of the number of people traveling on May Day. Ctrip's statistics show that in terms of short distance, the number of tourists during the Qingming period is three times that of the usual weekend, five times that during the May Day period and four times that during the Dragon Boat Festival.

Because the weather during May Day is the most suitable for traveling, and most people still inherit the concept of May Day Golden Week tourism. Compared with May Day, the number of tourists in the other two small holidays is slightly lower, which is closely related to time, the concept of traditional festivals and some things that happened in China in the first half of the year. Since ancient times, Tomb-Sweeping Day has been a festival to remember ancestors, so many people think that sweeping graves is the main task. However, due to the extra day's rest time, some people's ideas began to change. They are more inclined to spend 1 and 2 days on outings, getting to know martyrs, or having fun. Combined with the national cultural characteristics of this festival, the Martyrs Cemetery, the cemeteries of some ancient people or great men, and the revolutionary memorial hall are all very popular during their stay in Tomb-Sweeping Day. The Dragon Boat Festival holiday is just before the students' final exam, which makes many students and parents have to give up traveling and prepare for the exam at home. Moreover, after the earthquake, the psychological pressure increased and the willingness to travel was greatly reduced.

3.4 May Day holiday presents new features.

1. Short-term tours (1, 2 days) are favored, while long-term tours, which have been popular over the years, show an obvious downward trend.

Travel agencies report that the long-distance travel of 5-7 days, which people prefer in the past, cannot be implemented because of the limitation of holiday days. Therefore, after most travel agencies make discount and price reduction measures, many long-distance tour groups still ask more people, but few people actually sign up. As for those long-time outbound tours, such as Europe and africa tour, most of them are neglected.

Facing the three-day holiday, more tourists chose to travel in the province. According to reports, 80% of tourists are tourists from the province, and only 20% are tourists from Kwa Province. And the travel days are mostly 1 and 2 days. For example, the number of overnight tourists in Yinchuan decreased by 20% compared with last year, and the number of day tourists increased by 9.7%.

2. Leisure tourism and rural tourism have become the main choices for people to travel.

Due to time constraints, many plans to travel to distant destinations cannot be realized, and people begin to prefer short-distance leisure tours in the province. Rural tourism rose rapidly in the first half of 2008, especially during May Day, when farmhouses in various provinces and cities were full, and the occupancy rate of surrounding houses reached over 90%. For example, the bed occupancy rate of agricultural leisure tourism enterprises such as "Nongjiale" around Changsha was as high as 94% from May/KLOC-0 to May 3, which was much higher than the average occupancy rate of 77% in the city's accommodation facilities during the same period.

3. Free travel, self-help travel and go on road trip have become the main modes of tourism.

During the May Day holiday this year, the number of self-help tours, self-help tours and go on road trip increased significantly. According to the statistics of some scenic spots, about 80% of the daily average tourists belong to this category. Due to the short time, the places of travel are generally close, so many people choose a more free way of travel, thus getting rid of the shackles of travel agencies. It has been found that the traditional travel agency industry, which used to bear people's travel carrier, is facing severe challenges after the reform of the holiday system. According to China Merchants International Travel Service, many long-distance tourist routes are not full on May 1 this year, and the total number of tourists is only about half of last year. According to the introduction of China Travel Agency, among the May Day tourist routes, only go on road trip is the best, and the others are just so-so.

3.5 Small holidays replace the tourism characteristics after the Golden Week.

The characteristics of the three-day holiday in Tomb-Sweeping Day and Dragon Boat Festival are very similar to those of the May Day holiday. All of them are mainly short-distance travel, mainly leisure travel and farmhouse music, and self-help travel is the main way of travel. Therefore, the tourist attractions in the province and the surrounding farmhouse products have gained a lot. The travel routes of travel agencies have also been greatly adjusted, from advocating domestic and international long-distance travel to developing short-distance travel. Due to time constraints, people can't travel long distances. In international routes, Southeast Asia tourism and Hong Kong tour have become the focus of attention. For example, the number of Disney in Hong Kong has soared. After the cancellation of the May Day Golden Week, people's travel time has been reasonably allocated. At the same time, experts speculate that since the Spring Festival, people have not had enough time to travel, and their desire for travel may affect the upcoming November and Spring Festival in 2009, leading to a substantial increase in the number of tourists in these two golden weeks.

3.6 Green Dimension Landscape Conclusion

After 8 years of May Day Golden Week, the first half of 2008 changed the previous holiday mode for the first time. Although the three small holidays have not brought about a substantial increase in tourism like the Golden Week in previous years, they have made people's travel schedules more rational. It has changed the previous three golden weeks, accounting for 60%-70% of the total tourism revenue in the whole year, and the rest of the time is the unreasonable law of the off-season tourism.

Although the cancellation of the Golden Week in the short term will have a great impact on the tourism industry, especially the scenic spot industry, in the long run, the increase of leisure time will be the future development direction, and the tourism industry will benefit from it. The change of people's living habits and consumption upgrading will be conducive to the healthy and rapid development of China's tourism industry.

However, with the successful summit of Mount Everest on May 8 and the successful relay in Lhasa on June 2 1 Day, it shows that the situation in Tibet is stable and it can already receive tourists from all directions. On April 23, Tibet resumed receiving domestic tourists; From May 1, Hong Kong and Macao tourists can also travel to Tibet; On June 25th, the inbound tourism market officially reopened, and various travel agencies began to receive foreign tourists. Zhajie, director of Tibet Tourism Bureau, said: From April 23 to June 20, Tibet received more than 60 tourist groups/kloc-0, and Tibet's tourism industry is fully recovering. People in the industry judge that Tibet's tourism economy may be hit hard in the short term, but there is still much to be done in the long term.

Fourth, the overall development of tourism will improve in the future.

Looking at the main tourism events in China in the first half of the year and the analysis of their impacts on tourism, Lv Wei Chuangjing thinks that it is not difficult to find that the number of tourists and tourism income in China are obviously declining due to natural disasters such as snowstorms and earthquakes, which will have a great negative impact on tourism. However, with the hosting of the Olympic Games and the holiday effect, the demand for tourism consumption suppressed by snowstorms and earthquakes is expected to be released to a greater extent in the second half of the year. From the long-term development trend, due to the strong demand in the tourism market and the upgrading of tourism consumption, China's tourism industry will enter a boom recovery cycle. Therefore, in the context of China's sustained economic growth and rising per capita income, the long-term positive trend of tourism will not change due to disasters, because:

4. 1 The impact of catastrophic events is short-lived.

By analyzing the major events that have brought great influence to China's economy in the past, it is found that the impact of these events on China's real economy is temporary. The flood of 1998 and SARS in 2003 failed to stop the rapid economic development of China. Therefore, it is certain that the impact of catastrophic events such as snowstorm and earthquake on China's economy will be short-lived. Through the analysis of the impact of snowstorm, earthquake and other events on tourism, it is concluded that the impact of these events on China's tourism market will also be short-lived and regional. With the continuous improvement of domestic tourism environment and the decline of events, China tourism market will steadily enter the fast lane of development.

4.2 The Olympic Games will have a long-term impact on China's tourism.

The hosting of the Olympic Games has enhanced China's international popularity, made the economic scale and basic software and hardware facilities of Beijing, Qingdao and other host cities leap to a new level, and injected new vitality into the sustainable development of China Olympic follow-up tourism. In order to host the Olympic Games, the state invested a lot of manpower and material resources to improve various infrastructure and supporting service facilities, and at the same time repaired some famous scenic spots, beautified the urban environment and improved the attractiveness of the city. For example, when Beijing applied for the Olympic Games, it promised the Olympic Committee that there would be 800 star-rated hotels by 2008, including 40 five-star hotels and 70 four-star hotels. These promises will greatly improve the quality of Beijing's service industry. The impact of infrastructure construction like this is long-term and contributes to the long-term development of urban tourism.

4.3 Sustained economic growth will continue to promote the development of tourism.

The sustained high-speed economic growth in China will continue to promote the rapid development of tourism. In 2007, China's GDP increased by 1 1.4%, and consumption was driven by 4.4 percentage points, which was 0. 1 percentage point higher than investment. The growth of overall consumption led to the contribution to GDP exceeding investment for the first time in seven years. The Central Economic Work Conference also pointed out that to properly handle the relationship between investment and consumption, domestic demand and external demand, the most fundamental thing is to expand domestic consumption demand. Tourism consumption characterized by cultural leisure will be an important part of China people's consumption upgrading. According to international experience, when a country's per capita GDP exceeds US$ 65,438+US$ 0,000, tourism consumption will start. When the per capita GDP exceeds US$ 3,000, transnational tourism will generally occur. In 2003, China's per capita GDP exceeded 1000 USD, and will exceed $3,000 USD by 20 10. Therefore, it can be said that China's domestic tourism consumption has just started, and overseas tourism consumption will enter the start-up stage, and China's tourism industry will enter another rapid development stage in the next few years. According to the analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2003 to 2020, the per capita consumption in China will increase at an annual rate of 10.8%. In this excellent situation, with the deepening of the whole concept of consumption upgrading and the introduction of the government's paid vacation policy for employees, people will keep up with a higher living standard and the development prospect of the tourism market is very broad.

4.4 holiday policy adjustment to boost the development of tourism

The implementation of paid holidays provides economic security for people to go out, and tourism has become the choice of most people. With the adjustment of the Golden Week holiday and the implementation of the small holiday policy, residents have more leisure time. Paid holidays make it possible to travel long distances; Due to the short time of the small holiday, it has a great impact on the short-distance tourism market. Generally speaking, the adjustment of China's holiday policy has become a booster for the development of tourism, constantly promoting the development of China's tourism market.

Therefore, Lv Wei Chuangjing believes that although many disastrous events happened in the first half of the year, with the correct leadership of the China Municipal Government and the promotion of the Olympic Games, China's future tourism development will continue to show a good momentum.